What calculations does the United States have?, Attract Chinese friends and neighbors
On the 10th, US President Biden visited Hanoi, Vietnam and held talks with General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Both sides have decided to elevate the US Vietnam relationship from a "comprehensive partnership" to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", and the two countries will expand cooperation in multiple fields such as semiconductor supply chain, rare earth mining, artificial intelligence, trade, and tourism.
The upgrade of US Vietnam relations has actually laid the groundwork for it. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has been actively investing in Vietnam, sending aircraft carriers to visit and high-ranking officials to negotiate, which can be described as a multi pronged approach with a strong offensive. What kind of calculation is being used to try so hard to win over?
Firstly, continue to strategically encircle China. The United States believes that US Vietnam relations should serve the "Indo Pacific strategy", and the fundamental goal of the "Indo Pacific strategy" is to contain China. From the recent actions of the United States, whether it is expanding cooperation with Australia, India, and the Philippines, or attempting to build a "tripartite alliance" relationship with Japan and South Korea, the underlying message is to build a "encirclement network" against China.
Secondly, reshape the semiconductor supply chain. The United States regards the semiconductor industry as an important competitive area in the current strategic game of major powers. The so-called "more resilient semiconductor supply chain" is nothing more than excluding China's supply chain and reshaping a supply chain that is in line with the interests of the United States. The Biden administration's attempt to focus on Vietnam as its main industrial transfer target is nothing more than an attempt to further decouple from China in key technological fields and curb China's economic and technological development.
Thirdly, expand the space for economic diplomacy. In recent years, Vietnam's economy has developed rapidly, and American companies also hope to seek more opportunities for investment and trade in Vietnam. Against the backdrop of the United States still maintaining unreasonable tariffs on China, the Biden administration also sees Vietnam as an alternative production base for Chinese products, disrupting regional economic integration through "friendly outsourcing".
Fourthly, strengthen military security relations. In 2021, the United States invited 20 countries, including Vietnam, to participate in joint military exercises. There are reports that Biden's visit to Vietnam also intends to promote American military equipment. At the same time, the US also intends to hype up the South China Sea issue and win over Vietnam as a force to balance China in the South China Sea issue.
This calculation is good, but various measures full of zero sum games and Cold War thinking are already outdated. Under the leadership of the "America First" mindset, the so-called "cooperation" is also difficult to achieve the expected results.
From a practical perspective, Vietnam may not fully follow the United States and completely lean towards the United States in many fields. In terms of national defense, Vietnam adheres to the "Four Nos" defense policy, which means that Vietnam does not allow any country to establish military bases in Vietnam, does not participate in any military alliances, does not use force against any country, and does not unite one country against another. The geopolitical role that the United States hopes Vietnam to play, especially in terms of security, is not in line with the established strategy mentioned above. In recent years, Vietnam has pursued a "bamboo style diplomacy" characterized by both struggle and cooperation, seeking balance among major powers. Since the beginning of this year, Vietnam's economy has shown a sluggish trend. The main purpose of strengthening cooperation with the United States is to enhance economic and trade cooperation with the United States, while seizing the support provided by the US in terms of funding and technology, in order to achieve domestic industrial upgrading, rather than succumbing to being a "US priority" chess piece.
From the perspective of the China Vietnam relationship, which is widely concerned by public opinion, it will not be shaken by external interference. Vietnam and China are "immovable neighbors". At present, Vietnam is actively promoting the effective docking of the "two corridors and one circle" framework and China's "the Belt and Road" cooperation initiative. More importantly, the relationship between the Communist Party of China and the Communist Party of Vietnam has become the cornerstone of the relationship between the two countries, and is pushing the China Vietnam neighborly friendship and comprehensive strategic partnership to a new height. General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phuc Trong, recently inspected the Friendship Pass on the Vietnam China border and stated that only this port in the world is named after the word "friendship", reflecting the special traditional friendship of "comrades and brothers" between the people of Vietnam and China.
To gain more help, to lose less. Faced with the frequent layout of the United States around China, we should continue to respond with a calm, stable, and confident attitude, and uphold the correct concept of justice and benefit to cooperate with other countries. As for the "strategies" of some countries that harm others and benefit themselves, countries around the world have already seen them seriously.
Author: Zhao Xiao
Author's affiliation: Institute of Asian Studies, School of Foreign Affairs
