Upgrade! G20 Two Great Powers Tear Their Faces apart

The diplomatic dispute between India and Canada has escalated once again, following mutual warnings to citizens to be "highly cautious" when traveling to each other's countries and the expulsion of diplomats.

On the 21st local time, the official website of Canada's Indian Visa Application Center issued a notice, which read: "Important notice from the Indian Embassy: Due to operational reasons, Indian visa services have been suspended from September 21, 2023 until further notice. Please continue to follow the website for further updates."

At present, neither side has the willingness to take a step down, and trade cooperation between the two countries has become a victim of conflict. The trade negotiations under the Inca Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which was restarted last year, have been temporarily put on hold.

Reuters reported that since 2018, India has been Canada's largest source of international students, and the deterioration of the relationship between the two countries will greatly affect Canada's education industry.

What's going on?

Simply put, this diplomatic dispute originated from the shooting of a separatist leader in Canada in June, and now both Canada and India believe that the other is interfering in their internal affairs.

The reason for India is that Canada has long condoned the act of dividing India under the pretext of "democracy", which India already harbors and now dares to block its doors and accuse India.

India has a historical reason for saying so. This killed leader belongs to Sikhs and is at odds with Hindus. This group of people not only cause division within India, but also go abroad to establish "Indian embassies" on a large scale. They often hold protests, exposing "racial oppression" within India and calling for the establishment of an independent "Sikh state". Last year, they held two "independence referendums" in Canada.

And Canada's reason is that they firmly believe that the shooting incident is closely related to the Indian government. Because this leader holds Canadian citizenship, they believe that the Indian government is "running to Canadian territory to murder Canadian citizens.".

It is reported that there are approximately 26 million Sikhs worldwide, with the majority living in the northern Indian state of Punjab and approximately 8 million living in other parts of India or overseas, such as Canada. Since the beginning of this century, Sikhs have emerged as a rising force in Canadian politics. In Trudeau's cabinet, four ministers are Sikhs, and the proportion of Sikhs in Canada's total population is even higher than that of India.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau stated on the 18th that the government has "credible allegations" that Indian agents are involved in the case.

He emphasized that "any foreign government involved in the murder of Canadian citizens on Canadian territory is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty." He said that Canada will pressure India and "in the strongest terms" call on the Indian government to cooperate in investigating this shooting incident.

India has refuted Canada's accusations, calling them "absurd and premeditated," and urging Canada to take legal action against separatists operating on its territory.

On September 19th, the Trudea polymorphism seemed to soften. He blamed the assassination on "agents of the Indian government" and did not imply that it was an order from senior officials. He also stated that he did not want to anger India and urged all parties to continue cooperating. But India did not respond in the same way.

The United States doesn't want to interfere

The case that occurred in June sparked the first round of face-to-face confrontation between India and Canada at the G20 summit in early September, with the two countries directly tearing their faces apart.

As the chairman of this G20, Indian Prime Minister Modi has met with almost all Western leaders, but has not held a formal meeting with Trudeau, only a brief informal meeting.

According to reports, Trudeau expressed concerns about the case to Modi both personally and directly. Modi rebuked the Canadian government in person for allowing Sikh separatist groups to operate in the country. Both sides have their own opinions, putting coldness on their faces.

While accusing the Indian government, Trudeau is also urging allies to unite and put pressure on India. John Kirby, Strategic Communications Coordinator of the White House National Security Council, stated that Trudeau's allegations are "very serious," stating that the United States supports Canada's investigation and encourages India to cooperate with the investigation.

Other allies of Canada, such as Australia, have also expressed concerns about Canada's allegations. A spokesperson for the UK government stated that they are maintaining close contact with Canada, but further comments during the investigation are inappropriate.

The Governor of Chang'an Street noticed that at a time when the United States and other G7 countries were showing goodwill to India in order to build an "Indo Pacific Alliance" to balance China, Trudeau launched a rare attack on India, which put Western countries in an awkward situation. None of the countries in the "Five Eyes Alliance" came forward to condemn India.

The UK is currently seeking a free trade agreement with India. British Prime Minister Spokesperson Max Bryan said that Canadian authorities should investigate this incident. But he made it clear that this case will not appear in trade negotiations, "we do not want to confuse it with other issues.".

"If there is no clear evidence of India's involvement, the UK may remain silent," said Kitty Bajpayee, an India expert at the Chatham Institute think tank in London. After all, a free trade agreement would be a "major political victory" for the UK.

The United States is also in a dilemma. Drake Grossman, an analyst for the Indo Pacific region at think tank RAND, commented on social media that the "explosive news" between the Inca and India has put the Biden administration in a "double loss" situation. "If the Biden administration takes sides with Ottawa, New Delhi will strongly oppose and question Washington's sincerity; if it supports New Delhi, it means the United States is against a NATO ally."

John Kirby stated that any reports of the United States rejecting Canada are "completely wrong" and that "investigations should be conducted without hindrance.". But he added that the relationship between the United States and India "remains crucial, not only for South Asia, but also for the Indo Pacific region.".

Al Jazeera stated that despite this, the moral support provided by the Biden administration seems to outweigh substantive support, and the United States may want things to be resolved as a bilateral issue between the Inca.

"As long as the West needs India to confront China, they may turn a blind eye," said Susanne Singh, senior researcher at the Policy Research Center based in New Delhi

Stephanie Calvin, a professor of international relations at Carlton University in Ottawa, said, "In the calculation of Western balance against China, India is important, while Canada is not." This situation does make Canada appear "offside" compared to all other Western countries.

India wants to be a "chess player"

For a period of time, the United States has increased its efforts to woo India, and India has also shown a trend of leaning towards the West. Although it is still adhering to the strategic autonomy of non alignment, it is still striving to integrate into the Western circle.

In fact, this superficial effort simply cannot withstand setbacks. According to the understanding of the Governor of Chang'an Street, the West has repeatedly attempted to intervene in India's internal affairs at the G20 summit.

In addition to the controversy over the murder case between Trudeau and Modi, the United States and the West have also demanded that India abandon negotiations on a free trade agreement with Russia and withdraw from the use of coal-fired power, demanding that India reach its carbon peak by 2025.

For India, which aspires to become a developed country by 2047, the various absurd demands and conditions of the West seem to have locked in India's development ceiling. The inherent lack of respect for India's development demands has made India, which originally thought it could rely on the United States and the West, begin to harbor doubts.

Especially when Biden had originally planned a state visit to India during the G20 summit, it was found that India was unwilling to comply and the G20 declaration could not contain private goods. Biden simply left halfway and rushed to Vietnam.

The Governor of Chang'an Street noted that in the final G20 declaration, countries reaffirmed that the G20 is the main forum for international economic cooperation, continuing to operate in a spirit of multilateralism and based on consensus, and all members participate equally in all activities, including the summit.

The unnamed location reflects the international community's disgust towards the hegemonic behavior of certain unilateralist countries, which often prohibits other countries from participating in multilateral activities, and conveys the voice of global progressive forces.

As commented by The Guardian in the UK, "Although the West increasingly sees India as a 'chess piece to balance China', India is clearly more willing to be a 'chess player', and the United States seeking to improve its relationship with India can only be wishful thinking."

In fact, the connotation of this Inca dispute indicates that regardless of who the culprit is, the path India takes will determine its difficult prospects for cooperation with Western countries.