Jin Yinan: In order to build an Asian "powder keg", the United States launches a diplomatic offensive against Vietnam
On September 10th, after concluding the agenda of the G20 Leaders Summit, US President Biden visited Vietnam, attracting widespread attention from the world public. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the United States has dispatched multiple senior officials to visit Vietnam under the pretext of the 10th anniversary of the comprehensive partnership between the United States and Vietnam. Therefore, Biden's visit to Vietnam has been referred to by the media as the "concluding act" of a series of diplomatic actions by the United States. According to reports, during Biden's visit to Vietnam, both the United States and Vietnam announced that their relationship would be "upgraded to two levels", from a "comprehensive partnership" to a "comprehensive strategic partnership". US officials also claim that the United States and its partners can help Vietnam break free from its dependence on Russian military. So, as a Southeast Asian country with limited population, land, and economic size, why can Vietnam attract frequent visits from senior US officials? Under the diplomatic offensive of the United States, will Vietnam abandon the past grievances of the Vietnam War and abandon Russia in military trade relations to seek cooperation with the United States? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.
Li Yue:
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive partnership between the United States and Vietnam, and the Biden administration has frequently interacted with Vietnam through this. Since Biden's telephone conversation with Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, in March, U.S. delegations at all levels have begun to visit Vietnam. From Vice President Harris to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, from Secretary of the Treasury Yellen to Trade Representative Dai Qi, and then to Biden's personal visit, the United States has a very clear intention to woo Vietnam. Especially recently, the United States and Vietnam announced their agreement to elevate their relationship from a comprehensive partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Professor Yinan, what is the difference between "comprehensive partnership" and "comprehensive strategic partnership"? What are the considerations for the sudden strengthening of bilateral relations between the United States and Vietnam?
Jin Yinan: Literally, the relationship between the United States and Vietnam has evolved from a "comprehensive partnership" to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", which may seem to have greatly improved, but in reality, it is not. Even if there has been some development in the relationship between the two parties, the development is still limited.
From the US perspective, he wants to win over Vietnam and use Vietnam to deal with China. In the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and the West used Ukraine to drag Russia into the quagmire of war. Now the United States also wants to create an "Asian version of Ukraine" and engage in a conflict with China. Who exactly should I choose? The United States wants to choose Japan the most, but Japan has many restrictions on military use. In addition, Japan does not border China and cannot pose a direct threat to China on land. South Korea and the Philippines are not the best choice, because they are both across the sea from Chinese Mainland. So the United States chose Vietnam, thinking that Vietnam has a great potential for development, and perhaps it can be transformed into an "Asian version of Ukraine.".
From the Vietnamese perspective, will Vietnam fall for this trap and be willing to be the vanguard of the United States? I think Vietnam has been resisting American invasion for decades, how could it easily fall for it. During the Vietnam War, the United States dropped a large amount of Agent Orange and used chemical weapons over Ho Chi Minh Trail, and did so many bad things. Can the Vietnamese easily forget? And Vietnamese people will never forget who helped them achieve the reunification of northern and southern Vietnam. It was impossible for Vietnam to achieve reunification without China's assistance back then. Although there are differences between China and Vietnam at present, there is also a friendship formed by blood. So from this perspective, the development of US Vietnam relations will have limited space and will not reach the level that the United States hopes for.
So I think Vietnam will not take the step of an "Asian version of Ukraine" in the future. One reason is that Ukraine's lessons are too painful, and another reason is that Vietnamese people are too familiar with Americans. Although Vietnam is now willing to enhance relations with the United States, it cannot get too close to the United States. Seeking a balance between the United States and China is Vietnam's best choice. This determines that the strategic space of the United States in Vietnam will be very limited.
Li Yue:
The United States and Vietnam once faced each other in military, and their relationship was like water and fire. However, over time, driven by interests, the relationship between the United States and Vietnam is also undergoing changes. In 2015, on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong, visited the United States to clarify the sixteen character policy of "setting aside the past, overcoming differences, enhancing consensus, and facing the future" towards the United States. This is also seen as the fundamental principle of Vietnam's relationship with the United States for a period of time. In this context, cooperation in the military field between the United States and Vietnam is gradually being approached with caution. In May 2016, then US President Obama announced during his visit to Vietnam that the United States would fully lift its arms sales ban on Vietnam, with every transaction being reviewed. Prior to Biden's visit to Vietnam, some media revealed that expanding Vietnam's sources of weapons was one of the purposes of the visit. Professor Yinan, with the lifting of arms sales bans, the United States has sold patrol boats and other weapons to Vietnam. As the relationship between the two countries escalates, do you think the United States will provide Vietnam with lethal weapons such as artillery and missiles?
Jin Yinan: Vietnam is willing to introduce American weapons and enhance its own defense. But to what extent is it enhanced? For example, if we purchase missiles from the United States aimed at China, I think Vietnamese people will not take this step because it is too dangerous. There are several prerequisites for military cooperation between the United States and Vietnam that are difficult to break. For example, Vietnam has repeatedly reiterated that foreign bases will never be allowed on its own territory. In recent years, the United States has been wanting to lease Vietnam's Jinlan Bay, also known as Danang during the Vietnam War, as a base for the US military and establish a stronghold against China. But later, both the Vietnamese party and state leaders issued solemn statements, stating that Vietnam, as a sovereign and independent country, will never allow foreign military bases to appear on its territory, and no country can do so.
For example, if Vietnam purchases long-range offensive weapons from the United States, it will inevitably pose a threat to neighboring countries, which is a problem that Vietnam must consider. Do Vietnamese people want to have American missiles and advanced fighter jets? I must have thought about it. For example, the F-35 fighter jet, the United States will not sell this type of fighter jet to Vietnam. Even if it is sold, Vietnam's current economic strength cannot afford to equip it. Meanwhile, Vietnam is also concerned that equipping planes like the F-35 may cause a significant rebound in China. So from these aspects of analysis, the United States may actively promote military cooperation with Vietnam, but it will cooperate more cautiously, which is the future prospects of military cooperation between the United States and Vietnam.
Li Yue:
As is well known, the weapons and equipment of the Vietnamese army are mostly Soviet made weapons and Russian made weapons. During the Cold War, as an ally of the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union provided Vietnam with a large amount of weapons. After the end of the Cold War, Russia, which inherited the mantle, became Vietnam's main weapon provider. However, this time a senior US official visited Vietnam, claiming to help Vietnam break away from its dependence on Russian made weapons. Some netizens believe that this statement by the United States can be described as "wishful thinking and paper talk", which is somewhat unrealistic. Because replacing Russian made weapons with Western weapons is not only expensive and costly, but it also takes time for Western weapons to develop combat capabilities. Professor Yinan, under the situation that the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and the Russian military is weak, will Vietnam gradually abandon Russian made weapons as the United States wishes and instead introduce a large number of American equipment?
Jin Yinan: Actually, Vietnam hopes to introduce advanced weapons from Western countries, but there are two issues. Firstly, large-scale introduction, Vietnam does not have the financial resources to do so; Secondly, even if he had the financial resources, he knew it was not feasible. Because cooperation in the field of military equipment often involves not only the weapons and equipment themselves, but essentially a quasi alliance relationship. Because after the introduction of weapons and equipment, there are still a series of problems such as subsequent maintenance and updates. Solving these problems can only be done within a quasi alliance framework. So it's difficult for Vietnam to reach this point.
The famous American geostrategic theorist Brzezinsky once spoke to Ukraine. He said, "A Ukraine that cannot pursue a neutral path and handle relations with Russia with mutual respect will eventually become a new 'powder keg' in Europe.". This passage was spoken by Brzezinski in 2016. One year later, Brzezinski passed away, and Ukraine has truly become Europe's new "powder keg".
Currently, in this world, who would sell weapons to a country for free or at a low price? They all have their own goals and intentions. Brzezinsky's prophecy has become a reality today, and Ukraine has truly become a powder keg. Now the United States wants to turn Vietnam, which is currently undergoing peaceful development, into an "Asian powder keg", providing Vietnam with complete sets of weapons and promising low prices, even leasing or defaulting on funds. But I believe that Vietnam will not fall for this hook. It will make full use of advanced Western weapons and equipment, improve its own weapons and equipment structure, but will not rely on Western weapons, let alone become a pawn in the United States and the West.
