Helpless small farmers, "advance" heavy rains in northern Guangdong

On April 20, it was still more than a month before the heavy rainfall in Guangdong in previous years.

As usual, Zhu Huangyi and his family, a sericulture farmer from Hongzhen Town, Yingde City, set out to cut mulberry leaves. Around 10 o'clock, the sky suddenly darkened, followed by strong winds, "there was thunder and lightning, and the water seemed to fall down." Zhu Huangyi's sister, Zhu Xueyin, was riding a tricycle carrying nearly a ton of mulberry leaves and felt the whole vehicle swaying in the wind.

In two days, a "once-in-a-hundred-year" flood passed between England and Germany. Single-day precipitation at multiple observation stations in Guangdong broke local April records.

Flooding is a common occurrence in the mountainous areas of Guangdong. But this early, heavy rainstorm is still beyond the awareness of many people.

In the past two years, unpredictable weather has appeared in the local area several times, and experience and science have tried to find signs from it.

Are ordinary people helpless in the face of uncertain weather?

On the morning of April 20, Zhu Huangyi received a notice from the village committee, "The water is going to rise, so move things quickly." Official vehicles patrolled the highways and country roads and broadcasted: "The water will rise tonight, everyone pick up your things."

Following his sister's footsteps, he and his mother rushed to the silkworm house, tied red ropes to the ceiling beams, fixed the bamboo poles into a temporary storage rack, and raised some of the cocoons. At 7 p.m., the water was up to Zhu Huangyi’s knees. "I can't move anymore. I can't move anymore."

The three returned home, moved their belongings to the covered second floor, and moved the electrical appliances to the village committee on higher ground.

In the early morning of the 21st, the entire village suffered a power outage. After dawn, Zhu Huangyi saw that the water level had reached the eaves of his home. The road next to the house had long been submerged, and there was a vast ocean nearby.

In Shijiao Town, 120 kilometers away, Lude raised goldfish. There is a river next to his fish pond, which is usually one meter away from the waterproof dam in the field.

He saw that this year's rain was not only heavy, but also lasted longer.

The river water rose to only a dozen centimeters away from the embankment. "Fortunately, the rain stopped." On April 22, Lude finally breathed a sigh of relief when he saw the water level receding.

At this time, at multiple observation stations in Guangdong, the single-day precipitation broke the local April record.

In the live picture of the Central Meteorological Observatory, Qingyuan City is lying in a blood-red area. The cumulative rainfall in central and northern Guangdong and other places was 200 to 280 mm, and in Qingyuan, Shaoguan and other places, the rainfall reached 300 to 488 mm.

Many small farmers mentioned that every year around the Dragon Boat Festival, "dragon boat water" occurs in Guangdong, which is a phenomenon of large-scale heavy rainfall.

As early as March 31, the Guangdong Meteorological Department had predicted that this year's flood season would be earlier than the same period in normal years, and the "dragon boat water" would be slightly heavier.

Lexin runs a farm in Yingde. She remembered that this was already the second heavy rain in April. During the Qingming Festival, it rained suddenly and lasted for a whole day and night despite the severe drought a few days ago. At that time, some low-lying areas had already been flooded. The farm was more than 100 meters above sea level and was not significantly affected.

But this time, the raindrops were like knives. Le Xin watched as the sun only shined for half a day on the 22nd, and the rain came again.

Amidst the incessant rain, obvious flooding occurred in Beijiang, the Pearl River Basin, and 24 small and medium-sized rivers in the province exceeded warning levels. As of April 22, the province has evacuated a total of 110,000 people and resettled 25,800 people in emergency.

When the flood peak passed through, Zhu Huangyi saw that 80% of the 10,000 acres of mulberry fields in the village were soaked.

In Dawan Town on the edge of the Lianjiang River, "the water level has risen by about five meters in a day and a half, and 70% of the farmland in the villages in the town is gone." Zhang Quan, a medicinal materials dealer, said.

Water levels in villages during heavy rainfall. Photo provided by interviewee

Zhu Huangyi bought a kayak last year, and it came in handy this year. Photo by Zheng Ziyu

Locally, erratic weather has occurred many times.

In March last year, Lexin had just returned to Yingde to start a business and asked local farmers for advice. Planting is based on experience, passed down from generation to generation, and small farmers will decide the production plan according to the seasonal nodes each year.

But they found that solar terms didn't work anymore. In recent years, the actual conditions of solar terms and weather have often varied. Le Xin remembers that last year’s frost came very early and damaged the unripe fruits, vegetables and corn.

"The past two years have been too much." Chang Tianle said that many small farmers in the Pearl River Delta region have reported to her that the weather conditions in previous years have been dry for one month and flooded for one month, which is relatively regular and rarely rains continuously. But in the past two years, they have seen droughts and floods turn rapidly, with floods first and then drought becoming more frequent.

For a year, Le Xin has been worried about the weather changes. She didn't always care about the weather. Now, she checks the weather forecast for a month every day. "It was very dry for almost half a month, and then it rained suddenly." Lexin recalled that there was also a rainy season in March last year, which lasted for 20 to 30 days. All the more than ten acres of grapefruit trees on the farm were in bloom. No harvest.

Zhu Xueyin said that the local area is the "hometown of sericulture" and she has memories of moving things in floods since she was a child. Whenever a flood comes, the family is like ants, moving their belongings to higher ground. In Zhu Xueyin's experience, local floods generally only occur once every 8 to 10 years. The most recent one occurred in 2022, and it stands to reason that it is unlikely to happen this year. Moreover, in the past, the water level would rise only after it rained for more than 10 consecutive days, but this year the water level rose particularly sharply.

Small farmers appear unprepared. Zhu Xueyin said that the moderate amount of rain was welcomed by local silkworm farmers and allowed mulberry leaves to grow faster. Even if the "dragon boat water" comes, it may not be flooded. "It's like gambling."

The villagers' silkworm cocoons were soaked in water and could no longer be sold. Photo by Zheng Ziyu

When experience fails, science tries to provide clues to the weather.

In 2020, Liu Junyan, a PhD student in sustainable development economics who has long been concerned about climate change, cooperated with the National Climate Center to conduct data analysis on flood disasters in the Pearl River Delta region. Since 1961, the cumulative precipitation in Guangdong Province has shown a linear increase trend, increasing by 23.2 mm every 10 years. The number of heavy rain days is also increasing, with an increase of 0.2 days every 10 years. The upward trend since the 21st century is particularly obvious.

Statistics are as of 2017. They input these data into the model and predict that the average annual precipitation in Guangdong Province will mainly increase after 2020, especially in spring and winter. Extremely heavy rainfall may become an important meteorological disaster affecting some areas of Guangdong Province.

According to the analysis of the China Meteorological Observatory, the cause of this heavy rain is that the subtropical high pressure since April has been stronger than the same period of the year, and the temperature in South China has been higher than the same period of the year, resulting in the atmospheric water content being rich. The confrontation between cold air and warm and moist air currents triggers the occurrence of strong convective weather.

At present, it is still difficult for countries around the world to make targeted forecasts for severe convective weather.

"Weather changes are very special, especially some extreme weather events." Liu Junyan admitted that in the face of nature, no scientific model can be completely accurate.

At noon on April 21, Zhu Huangyi and his family rowed a boat and returned to the silkworm house. Many cocoons have been washed away, and there are still cocoons floating on the water along the way.

Zhu Huangyi took inventory and found that only one third of the cocoons were left.

Before the Qingming Festival, their family started this year's silkworm breeding. On April 20, he originally wanted to wait for the silkworms to spin silk and sell it in the market. "It's all about getting the money."

When it rained heavily in early April, the rain did not penetrate the house, and Zhu Huangyi only lost some mulberry leaves. This time, his mulberry trees were also flooded, covering an area of ​​dozens of acres.

When Zhu Huangyi inquired, he was not the only one who suffered. There are at least 10,000 acres of mulberry trees along the river bank in the village. Only those planted at high altitudes were not affected. These surviving mulberry trees must be slowly raised to provide leaves for rearing silkworms later.

Zhang Quan settled the account. I usually earn 200,000 yuan a year if I work hard, but I estimate that I will only earn about 100,000 yuan this year. "If I do dragon boat racing again in May or June, there won't be much left."

Zhu Huangyi and Zhu Xueyin checked the silkworm room, and there was a stench in the room. Photo by Zheng Ziyu

Le Xin is luckier. On a farm of more than 200 acres, 7 acres of cornfield were flooded. She couldn't yet estimate the amount of damage, it would depend on the weather.

If the weather continues to clear up and the water level subsides, the corn soaked in water can recover somewhat, but the yield will be reduced. But if it rains repeatedly, the roots of the corn will become stuffy in the soil. The longer it takes, the more it will die.

Chang Tianle is the founder of the agricultural social organization Shitongshe. She has visited the Pearl River Delta region many times to conduct research on farmers. According to her observation, agriculture is a pillar industry in many local towns and is very sensitive to weather changes. In England and Germany, the spring picking time of black tea is concentrated in April. If tea trees are planted on a large scale, they will be prone to collective "disaster". Now is also the season for lychees and longans in Guangdong to bloom and bear fruit. Under heavy rains, the fruit trees may not be able to bear fruit and "all the flowers will fall off."

On the evening of April 23, the water in Yingde Town had basically subsided.

Remedy is tough. The surviving silkworm cocoons from Zhu Huangyi's family gradually turned yellow due to water vapor, "and the quality is no longer as high."

Under normal circumstances, one kilogram of silkworm cocoons can be sold for 50 yuan. After the flood, there were fewer people collecting cocoons, and the price naturally dropped. The current price of zombie silkworms used for medicinal purposes is 14 yuan per kilogram.

Zhang Zhen's parents are plowing, disinfecting, and sowing seeds again. The two elderly people estimate that it will take more than 20 days to complete.

Lexin's farm does not have many modern machinery and equipment or advanced drainage systems. She said, not to mention that during disastrous floods, if the accumulated water is discharged into the river, once the river overflows, it will increase the risk of farmers in low-lying areas being flooded. At this time, everyone's fate is connected.

Lexin’s cornfield was flooded. Photo provided by interviewee

Nothing can be done. Le Xin and Zhu Huangyi lamented that agriculture depends on the weather.

Farmers often tell Chang Tianle that they usually watch some news and feel anxious about unusual weather changes. They have the enthusiasm to learn proactively, but there is no agricultural management department to tell them how to deal with it. Small farmers have to stick to their own farms and fields, and it is difficult to get out of the mountains. They can only learn relevant information through the Internet and contacting some local agricultural social organizations.

In the face of meteorological disasters, rural areas are particularly vulnerable.

Liu Junyan found in statistics that different regions have different risk indexes for heavy rains. According to data on the frequency of meteorological disasters, population, economy and infrastructure, within Guangdong Province, mountainous areas in northern Guangdong such as Qingyuan Yingde have a high risk index. In other words, these areas are less able to cope with flood disasters.

At the same time, Liu Junyan pointed out that many rural areas have small and medium-sized reservoirs but do not have good stormwater management systems. Once extreme weather comes, it is easy to exceed the originally designed disaster response and flood prevention capabilities.

According to Chang Tianle, governments in some areas of Guangdong Province have promoted weather index insurance. According to official information sources such as the Chinese government website, when a natural disaster occurs, insurance companies will pay according to the corresponding compensation standards based on the meteorological data of the disaster. The compensation standards for different rainfall and wind levels are different and have nothing to do with the farmers' planting area and output value. 80% of the premiums will be subsidized by the local finance, and the remaining 20% ​​will be paid by the farmers themselves.

However, Zhu Huangyi said, “We are the hardest hit area by floods and cannot get insurance.”

Lexin consulted the management department about insurance. The other party said that except for grain, other crops could not be purchased. She had never heard of weather index insurance.

The medicinal materials warehouse of a self-employed individual owner of Shenshan medicinal materials in Dawan Town was flooded. Photo provided by interviewee

If the risk cannot be avoided, what can we do?

Chang Tianle saw that farmers need more meteorological services. If they can have systematic learning and training, some small actions can improve their ability to resist natural disasters. She has seen some farmers adjust the types of crops according to the height of the terrain, and some have changed the way they dig drainage ditches. More small farmers are engaging in ecological agriculture to reduce the negative impact of agricultural production on the climate.

During the survey, they told farmers that in order to reduce the risks caused by meteorological disasters, they can adjust the planting structure, plant multiple types of agricultural crops, or sow seeds in batches. For example, planting a row of corn every other week will produce larger crops than at the same time. With large-scale planting, the risk of facing extreme weather is less. "Some of them will always survive. Don't put your eggs in one basket." Chang Tianle said that another method is to improve the quality of the soil and use soil with better water absorption and drainage properties.

But she admitted that these measures mean greater costs and more energy, and it is difficult for farmers to change their traditional operating habits. How good the effect will be is difficult to predict.

In addition to small farmers, more and more ordinary people are realizing the seriousness of meteorological disasters.

In 2020, an elderly community rejected Liu Junyan's request for climate education. The community believed that these matters had nothing to do with the elderly and that they were more willing to focus on issues such as personal health and family safety. However, with the occurrence of extreme rainstorms in many places such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, communities began to take the initiative to observe meteorological disasters, organize residents to conduct community risk assessments to deal with disasters, and thus set up some emergency response plans.

Liu Junyan pointed out that for every ordinary person. Be aware of the risks brought about by weather changes, take the initiative to avoid dangerous actions, and improve the safety of your surrounding environment.

More importantly, city managers need to realize how our cities and counties can become more resilient to cope with increasingly frequent extreme weather?

This is a matter of collaboration. Liu Junyan remembers that after the heavy rainstorm in Henan in 2021, the city's emergency response capabilities have been greatly improved. The head of the National Meteorological Administration once admitted to her that when meteorological disasters occurred previously, the red warning issued by the meteorological center was easily ignored by the management department, or was not given priority. But later on, it was stipulated that when a warning is issued by the meteorological center, the person in charge of the city management department must be notified by phone to inform them how dangerous the warning is and where the risk points are. Accordingly, the city's meteorological, water conservancy and other departments will hold meetings to discuss how to allocate resources to ensure people's safety.

Facilities in the town are also in urgent need of updating. Liu Junyan said that many buildings and infrastructure in cities and towns are relatively old and cannot adapt to the challenges brought by the weather. Funds and resources vary in different regions, and it is difficult for some economically backward counties to transform facilities for meteorological disasters. City managers need to weigh their investment between economic development, ecological environment and residents’ safety. This will be a long-term proposition that tests urban development.