What has Russia gone through?, Depth | 24-hour situation mutation Prigoren | Wagner | Russia
On the late night of the 24th local time in Moscow, under the mediation of Belarusian President Lukashenko, the founder of the Russian mercenary group "Wagner", Prigoren, announced that Wagner personnel had withdrawn from Rostov on the Don River to their field camp. At this point, the tense situation that lasted for a day has finally eased.
From Prigoren's actions being classified as an "armed rebellion" to mercenaries being "transferred back to the camp," Russia experienced a 24 hour period of sudden changes in the situation. Why did the incident arise, and why did there be a dramatic turn in the risk of civil war rising? What impact will it have on the situation in Ukraine?
The situation quickly calmed down
Time goes back to the 23rd. At 10:30 pm that evening, Prigoren accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of firing missiles at Wagner personnel stationed in the rear camp on his "Telegram" social media account, "resulting in the deaths of many soldiers and comrades.". He vowed to fight back against this.
Afterwards, Wagner's troops entered Russia from the Ukrainian border and arrived in Rostov on the Don River. This region is known as the "throat of the Caucasus" and is the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military Region and the location of the Ukrainian Special Military Operations Command Center. Prigorn claimed that Wagner controlled military and political facilities such as the headquarters of the southern Russian military region.
Regarding Prigoren's actions, the Russian Ministry of Defense has issued a statement stating that all news and videos circulating on social media in the name of Prigoren about the Russian Ministry of Defense's attack on the rear camp of Wagner's private military company are untrue and a form of information provocation.
Earlier on the 24th, the Russian Federal Security Agency stated that Prigo has been criminally charged for inciting armed rebellion by the Wagner organization. Russian "newspaper network" said that this crime could be sentenced to 12 to 20 years in prison. On the same day, the Russian National Counter Terrorism Committee announced the implementation of anti-terrorism operations in Moscow and other places.
Russian President Putin also delivered a televised speech on the same day. He said that Russia has suffered betrayal, and the actions of division and unity are essentially a betrayal of the people and comrades fighting on the front line, and a "stab in the back" of the country and the people.
However, Prigoren denied launching a "military coup" and referred to the operation as a "justice march.". He also pointed the finger at Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Grasimov. While engaged in a verbal altercation, Wagner's convoy had already traveled along the M4 "Don River" highway to a distance of less than 200 kilometers from Moscow.
Just as the outside world was tense about the opposition between the two sides, a new turning point occurred in the evening of the 24th.
According to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Prigoren accepted the proposal of Belarusian President Lukashenko to stop Wagner's actions in Russia and take further measures to ease tensions. Putin has guaranteed that Prigoren can go to Belarus and will revoke his criminal case. At 11:40 pm Moscow local time on the 24th, Wagner personnel evacuated from Rostov Oblast.
Russian President's press secretary Peskov revealed that Lukashenko took the initiative to propose mediation and obtained Putin's consent. Lukashenko and Prigo have had private relations for nearly 20 years, and the two eventually reached a consensus that "bloody massacres are not allowed on Russian territory" and formed a solution that can provide security for Wagner's armed personnel.
Peskov said that Wagner personnel who initially refused to participate in the rebellion will be able to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Wagner personnel who participated in Operation 24 will not be prosecuted.
Russian commercial radio quoted political scientist George Boft as saying that it was a surprise that the situation could be resolved so quickly. I thought it would last for a few days, but everything went smoothly. The Russian television station "tsargrad" quoted analysts as saying, "Thank goodness, the crisis has been resolved and Russia has not erupted into a civil war, which is a good thing."
What are the reasons for the transformation?
Why did the event take a sharp turn? What was the purpose of Prigorn's previous "advance"?
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute for Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the turning of events is first related to Putin's attitude of "holding high and neglecting power".
On the one hand, Putin characterized the incident as an "armed rebellion", which means that strong measures will be taken to suppress it. On the other hand, Putin also praised the Wagner armed personnel who fought in special military operations as "heroes", distinguishing the rebels from ordinary personnel. Afterwards, he provided a way out for the participants through Lukashenko's mediation.
"This indicates that Putin does not want to engage in internal bloodshed while engaging in strategic games with the West, which will harm the stability of Russian society and undermine Russia's international image. Therefore, Putin wants to prudently resolve the serious situation," Zhang Hong said.
For Prigoren, he personally stated that he was "aware of the responsibility for causing the Russians to bleed", and in the context of Putin's high public support, Wagner had no chance of winning the confrontation with the authorities, so accepting the situation as soon as possible became a practical choice. "Therefore, it can be said that both sides have a willingness to compromise."
In Zhang Hong's view, although Prigorn's public reason for vowing to counterattack was "rear attack," the other two factors may better explain his behavioral logic.
Firstly, since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and Wagner's participation in the war, due to the fact that Wagner, as a mercenary, does not belong to the command system of the Russian military, both sides have accumulated many conflicts. Recently, Bakhmut's meat grinder has further intensified tensions between the two sides, with Prigoren repeatedly criticizing the Ministry of Defense for insufficient ammunition supply and lack of military cooperation.
Secondly, the Russian military's inclusion of Wagner has caused dissatisfaction among Prigorn. On June 13th, Putin supported Shoigu's initiative in his speech and called on the country's volunteer army organization to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense before July 1st. At present, about 20 organizations have reached similar agreements, but Prigoren firmly opposes the signing as "embarking on a shameful path.".
"If included, Wagner's ordinary staff may not be greatly affected, but Prigoren will lose control of the organization and economic benefits will also be lost, so he will never nod," said Zhang Hong.
Wan Qingsong, Vice Dean of the Russian and Eurasian Research Institute at East China Normal University, pointed out that in terms of the goals, overall planning, command system, and logistics support of special military operations, Prigoren has some criticisms towards the Russian military side, and the two are not very compatible. Even if Putin seeks a balance between the two, it is of no use. In addition to military considerations, Prigoren may also have political demands, that is, to take advantage of the high national sentiment in the country and the importance placed on Wagner by some parties, with the intention of exerting a certain influence in future Russian political life.
Wan Qingsong said that if the incident can come to a peaceful end now, firstly, the Russian authorities may compromise with Wagner in the military and political fields. Secondly, Putin's televised speech did not include the name Tiprigoren, indicating that there was room for improvement. It should not be difficult for Prigoren to decipher the signal and feel the impact of the President's speech. Therefore, his actions are somewhat cautious.
Where will the "chef" go?
Since Wagner's participation in special military operations, he has attracted public attention with his formidable combat power. And behind it, the mysterious tycoon Prigorn not only stands out with his outspoken and quick words, but also becomes the core figure of this incident. What kind of organization is Wagner Group and what is the origin of Prigoren? What will be the fate of the two after the event occurs?
According to foreign media reports, private military groups like Wagner are a common phenomenon in the world. The International Security Services Company, which was born in the 1960s in the UK, and the Blackwater Company, which was founded in the 1990s in the United States, both belong to this category. Public information shows that Wagner was founded in 2014 and its armed personnel have frequently appeared in Syria, Africa and other regions in recent years.
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis last year, Wagner served as the "frontline force" for Russia, helping the Russian regular army achieve its main combat objectives, including controlling North Donetsk, Lysychansk, Bahmut, and so on. According to Prigoren, the number of Wagner personnel participating in the war in Ukraine is 25000. The United States believes that Wagner has played a prominent role in the Russia Ukraine conflict and has listed it as a "transnational criminal organization".
With Wagner's eye-catching performance in the war, Prigoren's resume has also been deeply explored by all parties.
He was born in Leningrad in 1961 and was imprisoned for 13 years on charges. Later, he opened St. Petersburg's first upscale restaurant and earned his first bucket of gold in life. He is also known as Putin's chef for providing catering services to the Kremlin. The New York Times pointed out that Prigoren had known his fellow countryman Putin for a long time and was only loyal to him.
Zhang Hong pointed out that Wagner gained commercial benefits in regional conflicts and geopolitical games by recruiting retired Russian military personnel, and also expanded Russia's regional influence. Especially in the Battle of Bachmut, Wagner paid a huge cost of casualties and ultimately gnawed down the "hard bone". As for Prigorn, he cannot be considered a member of the Russian elite group and is considered a marginalized figure. His failure to follow the usual political routine has brought certain troubles to domestic politics in Russia.
When it comes to the fate of the two, Zhang Hong believes that Prigorn may withdraw from the political stage, "going to Belarus is actually a form of self exile." Without Prigorn, Wagner may be marginalized for a period of time in the future, "because for the Wagner personnel participating in this operation, the official's lack of legal accountability does not mean they have a future in political life."
Wan Qingsong believes that due to the guarantee provided by the President of Russia and Belarus, Prigoren's personal safety should be guaranteed at present, and he may even enhance his political influence abroad through patriotic movements in the future. However, given the significant upheaval caused by Wagner, the powerful departments will be extra cautious in the future and may impose restrictive measures to prevent their influence from escalating. Some other interest groups within Russia have also cultivated their own private military organizations to dilute Wagner's influence.
Will it affect the Russia Ukraine conflict situation?
What impact will the incident have on the situation in Ukraine?
Zhang Hong believes that the battlefield situation will not undergo significant changes due to this event.
He explained that although there is a public opinion campaign of "Ukraine launching a military counterattack using domestic events in Russia", in fact, Russia and Ukraine have formed a stalemate. Both sides deployed heavy troops on the front battlefield and built strong military defense facilities. Therefore, without the withdrawal of the Russian army, there will be no significant changes in the Russian Ukrainian front.
"The main force of the Russian military is still stationed on the front line, and as long as Ukraine does not withdraw, there will be no opportunity for Ukraine," Zhang Hong said. "Although Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Maliyar said that the Ukrainian army is launching a counterattack in eastern Ukraine, the outside world has not seen any substantial results."
"Moreover, positional warfare depends more on both sides' firepower, equipment, and whether Ukraine has air superiority." Zhang Hong said, "However, it is clear that Ukraine cannot temporarily break this military imbalance, so it does not have the conditions for a large-scale counterattack."
Zhang Hong added that Wagner personnel only account for one tenth of the Russian troops deployed to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Russia still has reserves, and Putin recently signed a new conscription law. Therefore, even without Wagner's involvement, Russia can still maintain special military operations against Ukraine.
When it comes to the attitude of the West, Zhang Hong pointed out that after the political turmoil in Russia, the United States has expressed caution. "After all, Russia is a nuclear power. In order to maintain strategic stability between Russia and the United States, the United States believes that there is no need to rush to an end when the domestic political situation in Russia is still unclear." Zhang Hong pointed out, "On the other hand, this is a conflict between domestic interest groups in Russia, and it does not involve the so-called values of 'democracy' and 'freedom' in the United States and the West. Moreover, the event came to an end in about 24 hours, so the United States mainly relied on observation this time."
Wan Qingsong believes that although there is public opinion that the incident may affect the morale of the Russian military's frontline operations, Putin also has a series of means to consolidate and boost morale, including sending a signal that "the incident will never affect special military operations". However, the resolution of this situation does not mean that the risks have completely dissipated.
"Especially considering the ongoing and escalating crisis in Ukraine, the subsequent impact of Western sanctions, and the interweaving of a series of complex situations with Russia's 2024 elections, Russia's political security still faces hidden dangers." Wan Qingsong said, "How to sort out contradictions, form consensus among various forces to advance strategic goals, and test Putin's wisdom."
