Will there be a shortage of over 3 million barrels of oil per day? International oil prices are soaring! Latest report
The US inflation data released last week was mixed, with the three major stock indexes in the US stock market experiencing mixed gains and losses. The Dow Jones rose 0.12%, the S&P 500 fell 0.16%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.39%.
Last week, international oil prices rose by over 3%
Above $90 per barrel on the US oil station
In terms of oil prices, last week OPEC released a report stating that due to Saudi Arabia's continuous reduction in production, the global oil market will face a supply gap of over 3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year. Investors are increasingly concerned about the tight supply of crude oil, and international oil prices rose last week. The futures price of US oil stands above $90 per barrel. Throughout the week, the futures price of US oil rose by about 3.7%, while the price of crude oil increased by about 3.6%.
This week, the market welcomes "Super Central Bank Week"
Multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will announce interest rate decisions
This week, the market will usher in "Super Central Bank Week", with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss Bank, Bank of South Africa, and Bank of Japan all announcing their latest interest rate decisions.
The market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes this week is a certainty
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early this Thursday morning Beijing time, and the market expects that the Fed's suspension of interest rate hikes is a certainty, with a probability of up to 98%. On the other hand, data released last week showed that the surge in US energy prices has driven inflation to rebound beyond expectations, so the door to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may not be closed for some time to come. The market expects a probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points within this year to be around 60%.
The Bank of England may raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week
The Bank of Japan may maintain ultra loose monetary policy
In addition, the market generally expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by approximately 25 basis points this week, thereby pushing the benchmark interest rate to its highest level in nearly 15 years; The Bank of Japan may continue to maintain its ultra loose monetary policy.
Investors Focus on September PMI Data in Europe and America This Week
In terms of data, the Eurozone will release August CPI data on Tuesday, and the market expects that the year-on-year increase in August CPI in the Eurozone may reach 5.3%, which is consistent with July, against the backdrop of rising energy prices. This Friday, the eurozone will also release September PMI data; The United States will also release September PMI data, and the market expects the initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in September to be 47.9, which is unchanged from the previous value and still below the 50 mark of prosperity and decline.
