What signal is being released?, Warm up! Key data released by the central bank

Various statistical data reflecting the economic performance trend in August have been released one after another. According to the latest disclosure by the central bank, the increase in social financing scale in August was 3.12 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan. At the end of August, the balance of RMB loans was 232.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%.

Analysis suggests that the overall growth rate of loans is stable, with marginal recovery, and financial support for the real economy is continuously increasing, releasing three major signals.

Credit momentum remains strong after short-term fluctuations

With the recent intensive introduction of policies, after weak financial data in July, the industry generally believes that August may see a recovery. The latest data aligns with this judgment.

According to the central bank's disclosure, RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 86.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Although the multi growth rate is not dazzling, it is not easy to achieve on the basis of reaching the historical peak of the same period last year. Meanwhile, the loan increment in August increased significantly by over 1 trillion yuan compared to July, significantly stronger than seasonal patterns. The manifestation of policy effects also reflects market expectations and improved sentiment.

Overall, at the end of August, the balance of broad money increased by 10.6% year-on-year and remained at a relatively high level. In the first eight months of this year, RMB loans increased by 17.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.76 trillion yuan year-on-year. The credit supply is still relatively sufficient, which to some extent alleviates the market's concerns about the fluctuation of July's single month credit data.

In fact, looking back, blindly pursuing a year-on-year increase in credit in a single month is not realistic.

A senior expert in the industry explained the loan growth to China News Service as "climbing", saying that "if you run too fast ahead, you need some breathing time to recover your energy and continue to climb upwards." This is also true for credit growth.

On the one hand, it is necessary to leave enough time to digest the previous increment; On the other hand, the higher you go, the more steep and difficult it will be to climb. You need to walk steadily and maintain an orderly rhythm in order to continue climbing the peak with courage. Looking back at the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 5.8 percentage points higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The money supply, which increased by 10.6% year-on-year at the end of August, was not slow. The continuous growth of credit may lead to the accumulation of debt, which is not conducive to economic structural adjustment and optimization, and may also lay hidden dangers for financial risks.

It should also be noted that, unlike fiscal expenditure, money supply does not disappear after it is released, but rather forms a stock accumulation that continues to play a role in economic operation. The current pool of existing currency credit is already quite large, and in the case of steady growth, more attention should be paid to how the huge existing loans can play a role.

From this perspective, there have been many highlights this year. For example, in terms of interest rates on existing loans, the LPR has continued to decline since the beginning of this year. Not only can new loans enjoy policy dividends, but the cost of funds for existing and continuing loans will also be reduced.

Precise "take action" to focus on key areas

The total amount of credit has grown steadily, and the specific flow has become another major focus. From the analysis of credit structure, resources are flowing towards entities with greater demand and vitality.

One is to heal the wounds of private small and micro enterprises.

Many private small and micro enterprises still lack vitality after successfully crossing the "life and death line" of the epidemic, and need "blood transfusion" support. In August, the People's Bank of China held a special meeting to promote financial support for the development of private enterprises, highlighting the importance it attaches. For a period of time, various deployments by the central bank have helped to alleviate the burden and alleviate difficulties for private small and micro enterprises, from vigorously promoting the first loan households of small and micro enterprises, as well as the business of continuing loans without repayment and repaying loans at any time, to the implementation and effectiveness of inclusive small and micro loan support tools and re loans for agriculture and small businesses.

Secondly, to increase internal strength for economic recovery.

The external environment remains complex and severe, and the endogenous momentum unleashed in key areas such as technological innovation, green and low-carbon, and manufacturing has become a key force in economic recovery. To meet these development needs, the central bank has launched debt financing tools such as innovation and entrepreneurship financial bonds and science and technology innovation bills to support technology enterprises and leading manufacturing enterprises, clarifying that the existing funds of science and technology innovation refinancing can be extended to play a role; Carbon emission reduction support tools have been expanded to some foreign banks and local corporate banks. These measures all point to supporting structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading.

The numbers also clearly reflect the above trend. From January to July, private enterprise loans increased by 5.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8 trillion yuan year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprise loans have respectively exceeded 20% for four consecutive years and 25% for three consecutive years. Two thirds of green loans are directed towards projects with carbon reduction benefits.

The time has entered September, and the third quarter economic exam is approaching its final exam. Industry insiders expect that the next step in monetary policy structural support will be more focused on key areas, emphasizing the importance of "accurate action".

According to regulators, the total amount of financial support for the real economy is sufficient. In the future, the use of structural tools should not only consider the prominent structural contradictions in economic operation, but also balance the willingness and ability of financial institutions to provide financial services in specific fields, and solve the problem of not daring to lend, not wanting to lend, and not being able to lend.

The effect of "combination boxing" is constantly emerging

At present, the economic recovery is still in a wave like development and tortuous progress. Not only is monetary policy, but all parties are eager to provide strong support from the policy.

The preferential policies for stamp duty and personal income tax have been successively introduced, policy interest rates continue to decline, and real estate policies are adjusted and optimized in a timely manner... In response to the above calls and expectations, since August, various departments have worked together to significantly increase support for the real economy, providing a combination of macroeconomic policies that meet market expectations.

This set of "combination boxing" not only focuses on "exerting force" and "exerting force", but also emphasizes the systematic, holistic, and collaborative nature of the moves.

It is not difficult to see from a detailed breakdown of a series of measures that they focus on making good use of policy space, finding the right direction for development, and paying attention to strengthening the foundation and nurturing the economy. They involve many fields such as finance and taxation, real estate, and monetary policy, and have the characteristics of broad benefits, strong sustainability, direct effectiveness, and high market recognition. They can effectively reach the entity, help reduce the burden on enterprises and residents, and increase their income.

Taking the central government as an example, major measures to protect the economy have emerged one after another. Since the beginning of this year, the real estate finance policy has been implemented with one reserve requirement cut, two interest rate cuts, and three rounds of recruitment. The policy introduction has been ahead of the market curve, and the intensity of countercyclical adjustment has increased. Financial data is clearly ahead of economic data.

Positive changes have already emerged. In August, the PMI of the manufacturing industry continued to rebound, with a significant convergence in the decline in imports and exports, an accelerated release of tourism consumption, and a significant improvement in September's new home sales and expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Major stock indices also rose compared to before the implementation of the policy on August 25th.

According to analysis, the current trend of loans is good and the basic economic situation is good, and policies are timely and effective, forming a mutual response. With the continuous efforts of policies in the areas of "transforming modes, adjusting structures, and increasing momentum", the positive effects will be further reflected in the future.