What signal is being released?, News 1+1- CPI rebounds in August
On September 9th, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year-on-year, from a decrease to an increase. The ex factory price index of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, narrowing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; The month on month increase was 0.2%, marking the first time this year that it has turned positive. In addition, prior to the release of economic data in August, leading indicators such as the Small and Medium sized Enterprise Development Index and financial data had already been released. Do these data show signs of economic recovery? What kind of expectations can the upcoming monthly data for August bring us? "News 1+1" connects with Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, to jointly pay attention to: What signals will be released when the CPI rebounds in August?
Has the price decreased by 17.9% year-on-year, and has the demand for pork consumption in China decreased?
Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center: For the pork market, the overall demand for pork in China is relatively large and stable. It is difficult for ordinary residents to experience significant fluctuations in their consumption of pork, and the overall fluctuations in market prices are mostly determined by the supply side. In the previous pig cycle, due to the relatively high price of pork, many farmers increased production, resulting in a historically high supply of pork. In the pork market, the basic pattern of overall supply and demand is that supply exceeds demand, so the overall price is still relatively low and in a basic trend of significant year-on-year decline.
Does the 0.1% year-on-year increase in CPI in August indicate a turning point?
Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center: For prices, there are many sub items in food prices, such as vegetables, fruits, eggs, etc. These sub items have relatively large monthly fluctuations. Therefore, when we see that the year-on-year and month on month growth of CPI in August has returned to normal, it is difficult to say that this has already reached the bottom of prices. But the judgment we can make is that the downward pressure on the entire price has significantly eased, and the subsequent price may be in a trend of overall fluctuation and recovery. That is to say, it is difficult to say that it will continue to rebound, but the overall trend is still upward.
Is the demand for tourism strong, and is the hot consumption trend in August sustainable?
Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said that this year's summer tourism is indeed a concentrated outbreak of travel demand that has been suppressed for three years. June, July, and August accounted for a quarter of the total time in the year. However, the number of domestic tourism trips and tourism revenue accounted for nearly 28% of the total year, which is relatively a hot and strong recovery trend. The sustainability of this situation mainly depends on the matching of residents' willingness and ability to consume tourism demand. That is to say, if the trend of residents shifting from survival consumption to development oriented enjoyment consumption remains unchanged, then the demand for tourism among residents is still relatively strong. With the continuous recovery of the economy, the consumption ability of residents is also constantly recovering. For tourism consumption, there is still a good growth space in the future.
Do you still need to worry about the risk of deflation when the CPI turns positive from negative in August?
Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said that in the past period of time, there has been a heated debate in the market about whether deflation will occur. In theory, to achieve deflation, there must be a continuous decline in prices and sustained negative growth. In fact, deflation only occurs when the supply and demand cycle of the economy is very poor. I think from the actual situation in our country, although we have encountered some difficulties in economic recovery since the second quarter, overall it is still in a gradual recovery process. Both supply and demand have not shown a trend that can lead to sustained and significant price drops. So overall, I think the probability of deflation occurring should be very low. We still have pressure to maintain price stability, but deflation may be difficult to occur.
Has our consumption been downgraded?
Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center: Currently, there is a distinct feature in China's consumer market, which is consumer differentiation. In other words, in the high-end consumer goods market, growth is very fast, and even during the epidemic prevention and control period, it can maintain double-digit growth. On the other hand, people's demand for cost-effectiveness may have increased compared to the past. If we look at it theoretically, whether it's upgrading or downgrading the consumption structure, it means that our consumption of survival products is whether the proportion of consumption of essential goods is increasing or decreasing. However, from the overall trend, after our residents reach a certain level of income, the overall trend of consumption upgrading remains unchanged. However, at certain times, due to various reasons, there may still be certain obstacles to everyone's consumption ability and willingness, and we may show more signs of weak consumption in the consumer market.
Intensively launching new products! Has the combination of real estate policy punches been effective?
Zou Yunhan, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center: For example, in the real estate market, after the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy in first tier cities, the market will immediately respond. Of course, the adjustment of the real estate market may be more concentrated in first tier cities or certain super second tier cities. So overall, the implementation of policies is effective, but it may take some time for the overall effect to be reflected. It may not necessarily be next month, and better results may emerge in the next four quarters. We are saying that the economy has encountered some difficulties, but it does not mean that our economy lacks the advantages and foundation for development. These advantages and foundations are actually the foundation for our current economic recovery. We are currently facing some short-term problems, and in fact, from the Party Central Committee to the State Council and various departments are facing these problems directly. The next step is to implement solutions to these problems. I think there are still many things to look forward to in the future.
