What signal?, Beijing leads the country in price increases, with 70 cities announcing housing prices! Only three cities saw an increase in second-hand housing prices

On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on housing prices and real estate investment sales in 70 cities.

From the housing price data, in August, out of 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with rising housing prices decreased, while housing prices in all major cities decreased month on month. Among them, only three cities saw a month on month increase in second-hand housing prices, with Beijing being the only first tier city to see an increase and leading the way nationwide. The other 66 cities saw a comprehensive decline in housing prices, with the number of cities experiencing a historic decline.

Industry insiders believe that the August data has already shown that the housing price index has shown characteristics of "bottoming out and showing a strong rebound and recovery trend". This also means that the most pessimistic moment of the housing price index has passed, and various positive signals and indicator trends will continue to emerge in the future.

In addition, from investment and sales data, from January to August, the cumulative growth rate of multiple indicators such as real estate development investment, sales area and sales revenue, and in place funds of real estate enterprises continued to decline. However, it is worth noting that the sales area of new houses nationwide increased by 4.8% month on month in August.

According to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, at the press conference on the operation of the national economy held on the same day, based on the situation in August, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and market sales and real estate investment are still declining. With the implementation of policies and measures to adjust and optimize the real estate market, and the improvement of economic recovery, in the next stage, real estate investment, sales, and market operation will gradually improve.

Housing prices in major cities have decreased month on month

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with rising housing prices decreased, while there were 17 and 3 cities with rising prices for new and second-hand houses, respectively, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, housing prices in major cities have decreased month on month.

From the perspective of new houses, in August, the prices of new houses in first tier cities decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, while those in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.6% respectively. Shanghai rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month; The prices of new houses in second tier cities decreased by 0.2% month on month, the same as last month; The prices of new houses in third tier cities decreased by 0.4% month on month, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month.

From the perspective of second-hand houses, in August, the prices of second-hand houses in first tier cities decreased by 0.2% month on month, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing increased by 0.4% month on month, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.2% month on month, respectively; 2、 The prices of second-hand houses in third tier cities decreased by 0.5% and 0.4% compared to the previous month, both of which were the same as the previous month.

It is worth noting that only three cities in China saw a month on month increase in second-hand housing prices in August, with Beijing ranking first with a 0.4% increase; Mudanjiang and Dali both ranked second in terms of gains, both at 0.1%; The housing prices in Changde remained stable, while those in the other 66 cities saw a comprehensive decline, with the number of cities experiencing a historic decline.

In the view of Zhang Hongwei, founder of Mirror Mirror Consulting, based on past research experience, if the number of cities with rising housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities does not exceed 28, it means that the overall trend of the national real estate market is still in a cycle of adjustment. In August, as various policy combinations and measures have not yet been implemented, housing prices in various cities are basically in an adjustment cycle. Overall, cities with declining prices still dominate.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of E-house Research Institute, pointed out that according to simple arithmetic mean calculation, in August, the new house price index in 70 cities across the country decreased by 0.3% month on month and 0.6% year-on-year; The second-hand housing price index decreased by 0.5% month on month and 3.2% year-on-year. The current new house prices have been declining for three consecutive months, and the decline has expanded. Second hand housing prices have been declining for four consecutive months.

For the reasons for the comprehensive decline in second-hand housing prices, Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the current market's second-hand housing listing volume has significantly increased, the supply-demand relationship has reversed, and homeowners have actively lowered prices to promote transactions, which is reflected in the comprehensive decline in housing prices.

Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, agrees with this. He also believes that the decline in second-hand housing prices is greater than that of new houses, mainly due to the continuous record high listing volume of second-hand houses, monthly sales volume less than listing volume, increased transaction cycles, and expected decline, which has led to some housing sources continuously reducing listing prices in order to ship as soon as possible.

Second hand housing prices show signs of bottoming out

"It is worth noting that the month on month decline in second-hand housing prices in August did not further expand, and first tier cities did not lead the decline again, with a significant narrowing of 0.6 percentage points. The decline in second - and third tier cities remained unchanged, indicating that the second-hand housing market may show signs of bottoming out after nearly two years of decline," said Li Yujia.

Yan Yuejin also believes that the August data has shown that the housing price index has shown characteristics of "bottoming out and showing a strong rebound and recovery trend", which also means that the most pessimistic moment of the housing price index has passed. At the end of August, various regions successively introduced policies of "recognizing houses but not loans", which significantly boosted market sentiment. Various positive signals and indicator trends will continue to emerge in the future.

According to Zhang Hongwei, as we enter September, although measures such as "recognizing houses but not loans" and reducing down payments have been introduced, the impact is limited to the improvement needs of first tier and core second tier cities, with only about 10 favorable cities. Therefore, the policy will not cause a trend increase in housing prices in the next 3-6 months. Even in March and April next year, at most, the decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities will stabilize, and the housing prices of improvement projects in first tier and core second tier central urban areas will begin to stabilize first, or some projects may have a slight premium.

Looking ahead to the future, Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the recent implementation of "house recognition but not loan recognition" in first tier cities and the comprehensive lifting of purchase restrictions in second tier cities have brought about an increase in transaction volume. The "Golden Nine" has definitely emerged, but whether policies continue to be introduced, the scope and content of policies will still affect the future market trend. The "Silver Ten" still depends on the strength of subsequent policies.

The growth rate of indicators such as real estate investment and sales has decreased

On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics also released the basic situation of the national real estate market. From the data, it can be seen that from January to August, the cumulative growth rate of multiple indicators such as real estate development investment, sales area and sales revenue, and in place funds of real estate enterprises continued to decline.

Among them, from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 7690 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%; The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8064.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; The newly constructed area of housing is 63.891 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4%; The completed area of houses is 43.726 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%.

From January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 73.949 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; The sales revenue of commercial housing was 7815.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%.

From January to August, real estate development enterprises received 8711.6 billion yuan in funds, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1067.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%; Utilizing foreign investment of 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%; Self raised funds of 2719.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%; Deposit and advance payment of 3018.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 1545.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%.

Summarizing the data of the national real estate market from January to August, Yan Yuejin believes that although there is still some pressure, there are some positive signals worth paying attention to. In August, the monthly sales area of new houses in China was 73.86 million square meters, an increase of 4.8% compared to the previous month. This indicates that the data in various regions is already showing a trend of stabilization and recovery, and market trading sentiment is clearly improving. Various regions should regard "golden September and silver October" as the golden period for promotion, and homebuyers should also consider it as the best window for purchasing a house, actively entering the market, and the supply and demand can be prosperous.

Spokesperson Fu Linghui from the National Bureau of Statistics also stated that from the situation in August, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and market sales and real estate investment are still declining. With the implementation of policies and measures to adjust and optimize the real estate market, and the improvement of economic recovery, in the next stage, real estate investment, sales, and market operation will gradually improve.