What kind of crisis is Sudan experiencing as it falls into the abyss in the Middle East?
On September 13th local time, the United Nations Security Council held an open meeting on the situation in Sudan. The United Nations Secretary General's Special Representative for Sudan, Volk Perez, stated in a briefing to the Security Council that "there are no signs of easing the armed conflict in Sudan, and no side can achieve a decisive military victory. Since the outbreak of the conflict, at least 5000 people have died and over 12000 have been injured. This is only a conservative estimate, and the actual number of casualties may be even higher... Sudan is at risk of division. The conflict that began between the two armed forces is likely to escalate into a full-scale civil war in Sudan."
The ongoing conflict in Sudan
Multiple forces are involved in the war situation
Starting from April 15th this year, the two factions of Sudan's former military camp, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force, have engaged in exchanges of fire in multiple areas such as the Capital Circle, Darfur, and Kordofan, which have continued to this day. On September 15th, the conflict in Sudan has entered its sixth month, and there are still no signs of an end to the conflict between the two sides, with conflicts continuing in multiple areas. Under the shadow of war, the situation in Sudan is "losing control".
If you want to ask where the conflict situation is most eye-catching, it should be in the capital area of Khartoum Oblast. For over five months, both sides in the conflict have engaged in attacks around important military facilities, bridges and crossings, and supply routes. The rapid support force has extremely strong mobility and gradually infiltrates the community to engage in street warfare, currently occupying the vast majority of Khartoum's territory. The Sudanese armed forces, on the other hand, counterattacked using the advantages of heavy weapons and aerial strikes.
How to engage in close combat? For example, since early August, the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have been fiercely competing around the armored headquarters base in southwestern Khartoum. The base has a large number of tanks, ammunition, and military vehicles, but its area is actually not large, only 1.57 square kilometers. To this day, both sides still control the east and west sides respectively, making it difficult to capture them all.
The armored headquarters base in the southwest of Khartoum is still being contested
Looking at the entire Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces still firmly control the northern and eastern regions. In Darfur, the rapid support forces formed an alliance with local Arab tribal militias and controlled most of the area. Surrounding the various capital cities of Kordofan, the siege and counterattack are also alternating.
The involvement in armed conflicts goes far beyond the two major camps mentioned above, and the violent conflicts among the four tribes in Darfur are also expanding. According to local medical institutions, conflicts between the Baniharba and Salamat tribes in Southern Darfur alone have resulted in at least 260 deaths and over 540 injuries. In the conflict zone, communities where people live were burned down, livestock were killed, and vehicles were smashed. The reasons for the outbreak include mutual robbery between tribes due to economic factors, as well as different tribes supporting two opposing armies, deepening the contradictions between each other. In addition, multiple local forces in Sudan have also divided and stood in line, either watching in a neutral manner or directly joining the battle.
A significant change that affected the Sudan conflict occurred on August 24th. On that day, the Commander in Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, Burhan, successfully withdrew from the besieged headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum, and later arrived at the administrative capital, Port Sudan, on the Red Sea by armed helicopter. On this day, it was also the first time since the outbreak of the conflict that Burhan had appeared in public.
△ On September 13 local time, Burhan, Commander in Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, held talks with President Erdogan of Türkiye
Since then, Bukhan has started intensive foreign visits from Port Sudan to Egypt, South Sudan, Qatar, Eritrea, Türkiye and Uganda to actively seek broad support from surrounding countries. There are reports that seeking weapons and financial assistance from these "friendly countries" is crucial for the Sudanese armed forces. At present, most of Khartoum's industrial and military facilities have been destroyed, and the armed forces are looking to reproduce weapons and ammunition, which may be a long process.
Sharp opposition between conflicting parties
The dawn of peace has not yet appeared
There is another trend worth paying attention to recently, as the Sudanese Armed Forces have suddenly increased their air strikes and extended their strike network to areas outside the capital circle. Statistics show that in the past two weeks, there have been at least 150 deaths caused by air strikes. On September 10th, the Sudanese Armed Forces launched an air raid on a free market in southern Khartoum, resulting in at least 40 deaths and over 60 injuries. The severity of the attack left doctors in local hospitals exclaiming "terror and shock.".
This is the highest number of civilian deaths in a single attack since the outbreak of the Sudanese armed conflict. The area being attacked is controlled by the rapid support forces and heavily armed. According to informed sources, the target of the Sudanese Armed Forces airstrikes is likely to be a market for rapid support of the troops in conducting cargo transactions, which is also one of the main sources of the troops' economy.
Injured patients treated at a nearby hospital after a market in Khartoum was bombed
Faced with the prolonged armed conflict in Sudan, although both sides of the conflict have verbally promised and maintained an open attitude towards ceasefire and talks, they have also not forgotten to frequently shout to each other. The Sudanese Armed Forces view the other party as "rioters" and "traitors", while the Rapid Support Forces criticize the other party as "remnants of the previous dynasty" and represent the "old forces" of the military government. Previously, through international mediation, both sides reached several ceasefire agreements in Saudi Arabia, but the agreements have not been effectively implemented.
When it comes to the current domestic situation in Sudan, Burhan once stated, "Now is not the time for negotiations. We need to invest all our efforts to eliminate the rebels in the battle.". The leader of the Rapid Support Force, Dagalo, further threatened, "If we are willing, we can march to Port Sudan today.". Analysis suggests that from the dismissal of Sudanese President Bashir in 2019 to the overthrow of the civilian transitional government in 2021, both sides have been following in unison. It was not until the military government came to power, involving real power distribution, military mergers, and economic benefit sharing, that the ultimate goal was to see everything. The conflict between the two armed camps is irreconcilable in the long run, and the dawn of peace in Sudan remains distant.
Under the beacon fire, the impoverished people's livelihood
Half of Sudan's population urgently needs humanitarian assistance
International human rights organizations have stated that Sudan is no longer on the edge of atrocities, but has fallen into the abyss.
The bullet has left marks, and armed conflicts have triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, which has received strong concern from the international community. According to a United Nations report, there are currently over 24.7 million people in Sudan in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, which is approximately half of the total population of Sudan. The Sudanese people are experiencing an unimaginable disaster where the flames of war are spreading.
In the five months since the outbreak of the conflict, the key areas of conflict between the two sides have suffered heavy damage. The streets of the capital city of Khartoum were almost completely destroyed by gunfire and air raids, leaving the entire city in ruins. The infrastructure in a large number of residential areas is damaged, and situations such as power outages, water shortages, and poor communication often occur. Banks, gas stations, and other services are also suspended.
Due to obstructed transportation routes and poor logistics, there is a shortage of food in residents' homes. According to United Nations data, the armed conflict in Sudan has led to a significant increase in food prices. Currently, approximately 20.3 million people in Sudan are facing food insecurity, and at least 700000 children are in severe malnutrition and at risk of death. The ongoing conflict also threatens this year's crop planting and production, further exacerbating the food crisis in Sudan.
Within a day, bullets landed at the doorstep of a resident in Entuman City
Many Sudanese people's normal lives have come to a standstill. Whether it is government agencies or private enterprises, employees are experiencing months of salary cuts, which further increases people's economic burden.
The medical system in Sudan has also been severely impacted, with 80% of hospitals in the country unable to operate normally at its worst. The first to be affected are hospitals in the capital Khartoum and the central and western regions of Darfur. The shortage of drugs and medical devices has become a common problem nationwide, and the situation of dialysis patients who need to go to the hospital every week is particularly worrying. For safety reasons, some doctors even converted their homes into treatment rooms. On social networks in Sudan, people exchange experiences and discuss how to deliver pregnant women at home.
September was supposed to be the start of Sudan's school season, but in areas affected by the conflict, Sudanese students find it difficult to return to campus. According to UNICEF statistics, approximately 19 million school-age children in Sudan face the problem of having no access to education. The education department of Sudan has stated that the start of school will depend on when the conflict ends.
Sudanese children under conflict
An economic crisis may have arrived. Since September, the exchange rate of Sudan's domestic currency, the Sudanese pound, has significantly depreciated against the US dollar, leading to a sharp increase in domestic inflationary pressure. The war has forced Sudan's largest refinery to shut down, and the fuel supply chain has been severely damaged. Sudan's state-owned mineral resources limited company also stated that the conflict has led to a decrease in gold production to 2 tons this year, with a total production of 18 tons in 2022. Previously, Sudan was the second largest exporter of gold in Africa. In July of this year, Sudanese economists generally predicted that the economic losses caused by the armed conflict in Sudan had reached $9 billion, equivalent to a daily loss of $100 million.
On September 13th, the latest report released by the International Organization for Migration showed that as of now, the armed conflict in Sudan has caused over 5.25 million people to be displaced. Among them, over 4.11 million people from 820000 families fled within Sudan, with the vast majority of refugees fleeing from the most war-torn Khartoum region. Additionally, over 1.13 million Sudanese refugees fled to countries such as Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan. It is worth noting that before the outbreak of this conflict, Sudan had always been one of the largest refugee receiving countries in Africa. The flames of war ignited, and these refugees had to embark on a tortuous and arduous journey of migration again.
The conflict in Sudan has caused over 5.25 million people to be displaced, with a large number of refugees seeking refuge in refugee camps in neighboring countries
There are various predictions from the outside world about the situation in Sudan, one of which is that if the armed conflict in Sudan continues to escalate, it is not ruled out that there will be two governments in both the east and west at the same time. During Sudan's 67 years of independence, it has experienced three civil wars that lasted for over 40 years. This time, people cannot help but ask, if a full-scale civil war breaks out again, how long will it last, how much impact will it have, and how long will the suffering of the Sudanese people continue?
Producer | Muli
Producer | Li Chao
Reporter | Wei Ran
