We haven't had enough of the lessons learned 21 times, and the US government is closing down

The US government may be closing again. According to Politico, a US political news website, on September 11th, although the Senate is still debating the funding bill for the next fiscal year, the work of senators from both parties is likely to be in vain. Due to ongoing budget struggles between the two parties in the House of Representatives and the Republican Party, the risk of the US government shutting down on October 1st, the start of the new fiscal year, is sharply increasing.

The chances of budget approval are slim

Politico stated that although both party leaders in Congress agree on the need to pass a temporary funding bill to avoid a government shutdown crisis, the difficulty of avoiding a government shutdown remains unanswered as conservatives within the Republican Party still demand billions of dollars in spending cuts and significant policy shifts, and Democrats will not support such amendments.

The fiscal year of the US government is from October 1st to September 30th of the following year. Currently, with less than three weeks left until the end of the Japanese fiscal year on September 30th, American media reported that although the Senate has passed all funding bills based on bipartisan cooperation, members of the House have proposed a plethora of amendments to the bills. According to the legislative rules of the United States, only when the House and Senate reach a consensus on the text of the bill will it be submitted to the President for signature as law. The House of Representatives will end its summer vacation on September 12th, leaving only 11 legislative working days for lawmakers to negotiate, which means the budget is almost impossible to be approved before September 30th.

This is not the first time in American history that a full year budget cannot be passed before the end of the fiscal year. When facing this situation in the past, Congress would pass temporary bills to provide funding to the government, but this year's situation has become somewhat tricky. Although senators from both parties have shown a cooperative stance on budget issues, the situation in the House of Representatives is very delicate. Politico stated that senators are well aware that the House of Representatives must take action, but they are "skeptical that the House of Representatives can make progress in the short term.".

If this situation cannot be broken through, the budget free US government will have to shut down from midnight on October 1st. According to US media statistics, since the US Congress officially implemented the budget process in 1976, the US federal government has experienced 21 shutdowns. The most recent one occurred during the Trump administration from December 2018 to January 2019, and the outside world is closely observing whether this round of party fighting will lead to the 22nd shutdown of the US government.

The "Shake the Pot Game" Plays Again

The formal bill cannot be passed, and the temporary bill is also blocked, which is a rare scene in the intense budget game between the two parties in the United States. The website of the Congressional Hill newspaper in the United States states that although the budget is still stuck on Capitol Hill, lawmakers from both parties have already been rubbing their hands on the "blame game".

Senate Majority Leader and Democrat Schumer said earlier this month that the government shutdown would be the fault of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives in a "political game". After the Senate reconvened on September 8th, he launched another attack on conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives, stating that "the only way for the budget to pass is through bipartisan cooperation," and that "a single political party cannot accomplish this task, especially when it is controlled by an extremist small group of 30 to 40 people, and this small group intends to put their wish list into the budget and may pass it.". Democratic member of the House Appropriations Committee, Rosa Delauro, said that Republicans have avoided bipartisan negotiations and "they have given up leadership.".

Republicans have targeted the high debt of the United States and blamed Democrats for their attacks. Louisiana Republican Senator John F. Kennedy said, "Democrats know that spending and debt accumulation are out of control, but they refuse to consider Republican suggestions." The New York Times published an article stating that the temporary funding bill will keep government funds at the level set in December 2022, but most Republican lawmakers who voted in favor at the time are no longer in office. Republican Congressman Ken Buck said, "We are discussing spending levels that almost all Republicans vote against."

The two party struggle once again sandwiched House Speaker and Republican McCarthy in the middle. The New York Times reported that McCarthy and moderate Republicans could collaborate with the Democratic Party to pass funding bills, as they did when dealing with the debt ceiling issue in May this year, but this could spark dissatisfaction among hardliners within the Republican Party, which could threaten McCarthy's leadership position. Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good said in an interview with Fox News that McCarthy needed to make a choice between reaching an agreement with the Democratic Party or restoring government spending to pre pandemic levels, "everything is already on the table to hold him accountable.".

Failure of American style democratic governance

As early as June and July this year, American media had already issued warnings about the possibility of the US government shutting down in October. However, it is clear that American politicians, who are full of political struggles, are letting this warning "self actualize".

From an economic perspective, the destructive power of government shutdown cannot be underestimated. According to data from the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdowns from 2018 to 2019 caused approximately $3 billion in economic losses. Republican Senator Romney said in an interview with Bloomberg on September 5th, "The government's shutdown did not save money, but rather cost more."

From a political perspective, a government shutdown undoubtedly exposes the ugliest aspects of both party politics. The control of the "money bag" by Congress was originally designed to restrict the executive branch at the beginning of the founding of the United States, but now it has increasingly become a tool and bargaining chip for both parties to seek their own political interests. The direct reason for the government shutdown crisis this time is that conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives overturned the debt ceiling agreement reached between McKinsey and Biden in May, and demanded that the House significantly reduce almost all domestic spending except for defense spending, which caused strong dissatisfaction among Democrats.

In addition to the reason of "dissatisfaction with Democrats spending money recklessly", ideological issues have also become the main cause of the struggle between the two parties. According to an article published on the website of National Public Radio, for some hardline Republicans, eliminating social programs and priorities related to gender or race in the government budget is far more significant than saving money for American taxpayers. Rosa Delauro criticized that the Republican Party's move undoubtedly crossed the political red line. Similar scenes have repeatedly occurred in the political circles of Washington in recent years, making it increasingly difficult to formulate public policies that affect the national economy and people's livelihoods, reflecting the governance failures and institutional deficiencies behind American style democracy.