The recovery of major economic indicators and the possibility of more stable growth policies
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 18 (Xinhua) - The Economic Reference Daily published an article on September 18 titled "The recovery of major economic indicators and the possibility of more stable growth policies". The article states that multiple data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics have released signals of sustained economic recovery. In addition, several recent data releases have also released more positive signals, including an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan in RMB loans in August and a rebound in the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing industry for three consecutive months. The continued recovery of the national economy is a manifestation of a series of effective policies and measures to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent risks. In the next stage, measures to stabilize growth will continue to be intensified.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from the production side, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year in August, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the average level of all large-scale industries, and contributed 38.9% to the growth of all large-scale industries. "The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council timely introduced and implemented a number of targeted, combined, and collaborative policy measures, and industrial production continued to recover. The growth rate of most industries accelerated, and the equipment manufacturing industry rebounded significantly. New progress was made in the high-quality development of the industrial economy," said Sun Xiao, a statistician at the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
From the demand side, in terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. In the first 8 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7% year-on-year, while the retail sales of services increased by 19.4%. The driving effect of service consumption on the entire market is very obvious.
In terms of investment, from January to August, fixed assets investment increased by 3.2% year on year, of which investment in key areas maintained a rapid growth, infrastructure investment increased by 6.4% year on year, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.9%. "Against the backdrop of an increase in the growth base of the same period last year, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has rebounded, indicating that stable growth policies have taken the lead in achieving results in the field of manufacturing investment," said Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng.
At the same time, the data released on the 15th also confirms with other recently released data: in August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7%, marking the third consecutive month of recovery; The national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year-on-year from the previous month to an increase of 0.1%, and the national industrial producer price index turned positive for the first time since the beginning of this year; In August, the decline in China's imports and exports narrowed, and compared to June and July, it significantly stabilized; In August, RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.8 billion yuan year-on-year. New loans from January to August also reached a new high.
"In August, the main indicators showed marginal improvement, the national economy recovered well, high-quality development was solidly promoted, and positive factors accumulated and increased." Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office. However, there are still many external unstable and uncertain factors, and domestic demand is still insufficient. The foundation for economic recovery to improve still needs to be consolidated. Fu Linghui mentioned that in the next stage, "focusing on stabilizing growth, employment, and risk prevention, we will accelerate the implementation and effectiveness of policy measures that have been introduced, continuously promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous power, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers, and promote the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth in quantity."
In fact, the market risk appetite has not yet fully stabilized and rebounded in recent times, and the confidence of the real sector needs to be further boosted. In order to consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, multiple departments are promoting the implementation of more policies.
——Macro policies continue to be strengthened. On September 15th, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, releasing medium - and long-term liquidity exceeding 500 billion yuan. On the same day, it also increased its MLF and resumed 14 day reverse repurchase after an 8-month interval, with a 20 basis point decrease in the winning bid interest rate. "At a critical moment when China's economy is in a relay of recovery, it is timely for the central bank to comprehensively lower reserve requirements and policy interest rates. There is still room for adjustment in monetary policy in the next step, and finance will continue to increase support and services for the real economy." said Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher of China Merchants Association.
"In terms of fiscal policy, the fourth quarter has entered a 'window period' for the issuance of special bonds, and it is possible to introduce two incremental measures, including flexible use of special bond quota space, additional issuance of special bonds, and an increase in the quota of policy oriented development financial instruments, with a focus on supporting infrastructure investment," said Wang Qing.
——Expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand, more measures are also under consideration. In terms of stabilizing investment, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently publicly recommended a batch of private investment projects to the society, with a total investment of approximately 527 trillion yuan in 4894 projects. There are a large number of projects in urban construction, agriculture, tourism, etc., and projects in urban construction, highways, waterways, ports, etc. have a relatively large scale. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in the next step, it will closely monitor the follow-up implementation of relevant projects, promote the early and successful attraction of private capital participation, and provide more investment opportunities for private capital. At the same time, various regions will continue to promote eligible projects to private capital, fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of private investment.
In terms of stabilizing foreign trade, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, He Yadong, recently stated that the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote policies, focus on implementation, address weaknesses, and strengthen advantages. In response to market and enterprise concerns, the Ministry will further improve the toolbox of trade policies, such as issuing special policies to enhance the development level of processing trade and policies to promote the development of service trade and digital trade. "There are two main types of tools in the policy toolbox: one is that existing tools will be adjusted to further improve policy effectiveness; the other is innovative tools, such as exploring new tools to support digital trade and green trade, and providing more effective and three-dimensional support for enterprises." said Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce.
Regarding the policies in the real estate market, Wang Qing stated that various real estate support policies will be accelerated in implementation, and various regions will further intensify their "voluntary actions" in tax reduction, relaxation of purchase restrictions, and provision of housing subsidies. This will effectively increase the synergy of macroeconomic policies and boost market confidence in the process of countercyclical regulation.
