More than ten cities have completely lifted purchase restrictions! Will there be more cities following the trend?

On the occasion of the "Golden September and Silver October", the real estate market has experienced frequent warm winds, and the active adjustment of policies such as purchase and sales restrictions has become another important trend after the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy.

In just about a week, several hot cities including Shenyang, Nanjing, Dalian, Lanzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, etc. have completely lifted their purchase restrictions.

Multiple hot second tier cities have completely lifted purchase restrictions

Since December last year, several hot cities have focused on adjusting their real estate purchase restrictions, but at that time, the adjustment was still mainly focused on optimization. Some cities even chose to relax their purchase restrictions and tighten their sales restrictions.

But the adjustment of this round of purchase restriction policy is more comprehensive and direct.

On September 4th, a series of new real estate policies were released in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, which mentioned the cancellation of purchase restrictions within the second ring road and the cancellation of restrictions on the duration of housing sales to meet the housing needs of residents. This is also another adjustment of Shenyang's restricted housing purchase and sale policy, following the cancellation of the second ring road housing purchase and sale policy in March this year, which means the comprehensive cancellation of Shenyang's restricted housing purchase and sale policy.

Another provincial capital city, Nanjing, Jiangsu, immediately followed suit. Starting from September 8th, purchasing commercial housing within the four districts of Xuanwu District, Qinhuai District, Jianye District, and Gulou District in Nanjing no longer requires a proof of purchase. The above four main urban areas are already the only remaining restricted purchase areas in Nanjing, which also means the comprehensive cancellation of Nanjing's purchase restriction policy.

On September 11th, two major cities in Shandong Province, Qingdao and Jinan, simultaneously announced the lifting of purchase restrictions on real estate across the entire region, while optimizing the listing and trading period of housing, which has attracted more widespread attention. According to the local media "New Yellow River Client", this means that the last two regulatory weights of purchase and sales restrictions have been lifted, and all the seven year restrictive control tools in Jinan's real estate market have been lifted.

On September 12th, four departments in Zhengzhou jointly issued a notice on further supporting the demand for reasonable housing. Firstly, it mentioned the cancellation of purchase restrictions on housing within the second ring road, as well as the cancellation of restrictions on the duration of housing sales, in order to support residents' rigid and improved housing needs.

The restrictive real estate market regulation policies mainly include purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions, and commercial restrictions. The combination of the five restrictions is also considered an important symbol of the previous round of strict real estate market regulation. The Central Political Bureau meeting held on July 24th made the latest judgment of "adapting to the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market, and adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in a timely manner", which also led to the adjustment and optimization of restrictive policies.

"From a policy perspective, lifting purchase restrictions means lowering the threshold for purchasing a house, allowing previously ineligible buyers to regain their eligibility to enter the market, thereby releasing a batch of purchasing demand and boosting transaction activity." Guan Rongxue, senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that lifting sales restrictions will accelerate the circulation of houses in the market, improve demand release, and increase market activity.

What are the characteristics of regional adjustments

According to incomplete statistics from Zhuge Data Research Center, as of September 11th, eight cities including Dongguan, Foshan, Shenyang, Jiaxing, Dalian, Nanjing, Jinan, and Qingdao have announced the complete cancellation of purchase restrictions. The market effect of lifting purchase restrictions in core second tier cities may be significantly greater than that in other low-energy cities, making it of great significance for the current real estate market.

In the overall trend of adjusting purchase restriction policies, whether to choose "comprehensive exit" or "partial adjustment" is directly related to the characteristics of each city.

Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, explained that cities that have withdrawn from peripheral purchase restrictions and retained central purchase restrictions can mainly be divided into three situations: first, core cities in first and second tier hot cities; Secondly, in recent years, cities with large population clusters and "one province dominates" have good real estate market fundamentals, such as Xi'an and Changsha; Thirdly, cities with extremely tight supply and demand relationships and high fluctuation elasticity, such as Xiamen.

"If the purchase restrictions are completely lifted, due to their strong ability to attract population, these cities may have a strong siphon effect on other regions in the province, which may lead to more people coming to allocate assets and other cities in the province being siphoned off." Li Yujia said that the main characteristics of cities that completely lift the purchase restrictions are a large decline in the real estate market, high pressure on inventory depletion, and a very large number of second-hand housing listings.

In addition to dividing according to standards such as core and non core areas, some cities have also attempted different adjustment rules. For example, Suzhou, Jiangsu, known as the "strongest prefecture level city," has proposed that "qualification review for purchasing commercial housing of 120 square meters or more will no longer be conducted.".

"According to such purchase restriction measures, improving the high-end should be attributed to improving the high-end, and the first set of essential needs should be attributed to the first set of essential needs, with some being loose, some being relaxed, and some being held under pressure. The purchase restriction policy is being implemented in a differentiated manner. The 120 square meter essential needs unit type is still subject to purchase restrictions or policy protection. In strong second tier cities like Suzhou, the adjustment of purchase restriction policies above 120 square meters should not affect the first set of essential needs property." Zhang Hongwei, founder of Mirror Consulting, believes that strong second tier cities may refer to this model and flexibly adjust purchase restriction policies.

More cities may follow up on adjustments

The continuous release of policy optimization space has also made early September a dense period for the release of real estate regulation policies.

"Recently, the frequency of policy implementation has accelerated, with over 20 cities introducing nearly 30 policies in September, nearly half of the policy frequency in August." Chen Wenjing, Market Research Director of China Index Research Institute, introduced that in late August and early September, more than 20 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen implemented the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy for first-time housing. Some second tier cities have optimized purchase and sales restrictions, reduced down payment ratios, and mortgage interest rates, and the pace of urban policy implementation has accelerated in various regions.

After the policy was released, it brought about a rapid increase in transaction volume in first tier cities in the short term. However, from a national perspective, the overall transaction volume of the new housing market has not significantly increased, and it will take time for policies to take effect.

According to monitoring data from China Index Research Institute, the sales area of key cities in China decreased by over 20% month on month last week. Among them, the sales area in Beijing and Shenzhen has slightly increased; The changes in online signing data in Shanghai and Guangzhou are not yet significant. Last week, the transaction area both decreased month on month, including factors such as lagging online signing data.

"Optimizing the purchase restriction policy is conducive to releasing more demand for housing, further repairing local market expectations, and consolidating the current market stabilization and recovery trend, especially in core second tier cities, where the policy effect may be relatively good." Chen Wenjing said that it is expected that in the future, second tier cities will continue to optimize the real estate policies introduced during the past overheated stage of the market, further relax the purchase restriction policy, and it is not ruled out that more cities will completely cancel the purchase restriction.