Kim Il nam: Japan's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is willing to "tear up its face" with Russia in order to "indulge the rich" by any means

On September 3rd, Russia celebrated its first Victory Day in the War against Japan. September 3rd was originally Russia's "End of World War II", but on June 24th this year, Russian President Putin signed a bill officially changing the name to "Victory Day of the Japanese Militarist War and End of World War II". In terms of defense expenses, Japan has recently revealed strong news. On August 31, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced the budget application for the 2024 fiscal year, with a total amount of 7.7 trillion yen, setting a new historical high. The public opinion generally believes that Japan's ambition to strengthen its offensive capabilities can no longer be hidden. So, why did Russia highlight the phrase "victory in the war against Japan" in the name of September 3rd commemoration day? Japan's defense budget is increasing year by year, what dangerous signals are being released? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.

On September 3rd, the Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, Medvedev, attended Russia's first "Victory Day of the War against Japan" celebration and delivered a speech

Li Yue:

According to reports, the Russian side pointed out in a legal explanatory document that the reason for renaming "World War II End Day" is mainly because after Russia launched a special military operation, Japan and the United States and the West jointly launched an unprecedented "unfriendly action" in the history of Russia and Japan. The change in the name of September 3rd commemoration day is one of the "countermeasures" against Japan. On September 3, Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, delivered a speech at Russia's first "Victory Day of the War against Japan" celebration, stating that the current Japanese government's admiration for the United States has made it forget the tragedies of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Japan must learn from history and the commemorative days celebrated by people today, and make every effort to avoid igniting the flames of the Third World War. Professor Yinan, how do you analyze Russia's actions and the potential changes in Russia Japan relations that may arise from them?

Jin Yinan: Russia holds commemorative activities every year to celebrate the end of World War II. This year, it is changed to "Victory Day of Japanese Militarism and the End of World War II", which has a strong warning significance. It is to remind Japan not to forget the disasters brought by Japanese militarism to other countries during World War II and how Japan became the culprit of the war. Russia hopes to remind Japan through commemorative activities. So, during his attendance at this event, the Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, Medvedev, made it very clear that the current Japanese authorities are trapped in blind worship of the United States. When the United States followed suit and imposed sanctions on other countries, the Japanese authorities have left behind hundreds of thousands of compatriots who suffered a tragic fate due to the atomic bomb explosions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, forgetting that it was Japan's aggressive war that led to such consequences. In this context, Russia's warning to Japan has strong practical significance.

In addition, Russia's reminder is also of great significance to countries in the entire Asia Pacific region. The first is to remind Asia Pacific countries that the Japanese authorities are pursuing an absolute pro American policy today; The second is to be wary of the revival of Japanese militarism.

Data image: On March 21, 2023 local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Kiev and held a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky

Li Yue:

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February last year, Japan has been firmly opposing Russia and supporting Ukraine with the United States and Western countries, which has aroused strong dissatisfaction in Russia. Russia immediately interrupted the negotiations on the conclusion of a peace treaty and "visa free exchanges" with Japan. According to the latest report, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated on August 29th during a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky that Japan will use the $30 million allocated to NATO funds to provide Ukraine with drone detection systems. Professor Yinan, Japan in East Asia is not a NATO country. Why should it follow the United States and the West to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or even "break face" with neighboring Russia?

Jin Yinan: In fact, Japan's development strategy has not changed from the Meiji Restoration to the First Sino Japanese War, and then to the aggressive war launched during World War II. It is known as "leaving Asia and entering Europe", which is not a pleasant term for "joining the wealthy". Whoever has the strength will join. At that time, Europe was strong and had established imperialist countries such as Britain, France, and Germany, known as the "sun never sets" empire. However, Asia at that time was small, poor, and weak, so Japan had always dreamed of "leaving Asia and entering Europe".

What is Japan's development strategy today? It means "leaving Asia and entering the United States" because the United States and Europe are integrated. It will not hesitate to offend Russia today, but also "stay close" to the United States because it believes that the United States is the world's leader today, so it will do whatever the United States asks it to do and become a "loyal partner" of the United States. And European and American countries have also given this "loyal partner" certain rewards. For example, the recent issue of Japan's nuclear contaminated water being discharged into the sea has been condemned by people around the world, but G7 countries have silently agreed and are lenient towards Japan. Japan has tasted the sweetness in this regard. It feels supported by the West, so it is confident and fearless, which is the current situation in Japan.

Li Yue:

In recent years, Japan's ambition to become a military superpower has continued to expand. In December last year, Japan officially passed three security policy documents, including a new version of the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Force Readiness Plan, claiming that Japan should have the "counterattack capability", that is, the "ability to attack enemy bases.". According to these three documents, Japan will significantly strengthen its defense capabilities and plans to increase defense spending from fiscal years 2023 to 2027 to 1.6 times that of fiscal years 2019 to 2023. By the fiscal year 2027, Japan's defense spending will reach 2% of its gross domestic product. The budget application for the 2024 fiscal year just announced by the Japanese Ministry of Defense has also undoubtedly increased. Analysts have pointed out that with the release of new security documents and the growing defense budget in Japan, it can be predicted that the principle of Japan's "exclusive defense" may undergo significant changes in the coming years, and the security and stability situation in East Asia will be seriously disrupted. Professor Ichinan, what are the areas worth paying attention to and being wary of as Japan's defense budget continues to grow?

Jin Yinan: The reasons for Japan's increase in defense spending are very complex, and the main reason is that Japan wants to become a so-called normal country and pursue defense strength that matches its own economic development. To achieve these goals, the first step is to achieve defensive autonomy, but Japan's defense today is completely controlled by the Americans. The US military bases are scattered throughout Japan's territory, and the US Japan Security Treaty is like a "tight curse" that constantly restricts Japan. Japan can only transition to a normal land, sea, and air force by continuously increasing defense costs. In this process, Japan often uses "China's military threat" as an excuse to increase its defense costs. This grandiose statement has become a very good reason for it. What are the reasons that cannot be expressed here? It is ultimately to break free from American control.

In recent years, Japan's defense spending has generally been below $50 billion, and the Japanese Ministry of Defense has set a budget application amount of over 70000 billion yen for the 2024 fiscal year. This is the first time Japan's defense spending has exceeded $50 billion since the end of World War II. The defense budget of the United States is over 800 billion US dollars. Although it seems that there is still a significant gap in military spending between Japan and the United States, the Japanese Self Defense Force only has a few hundred thousand personnel, while the United States has nearly two million standing troops. If calculated on a per capita basis, the military expenses of Japanese and American soldiers are basically the same, therefore, the per capita defense expenses of the United States and Japan are the highest among countries in the world.

From this point, it can be seen that although Japan is called the Self Defense Force, its current defense expenses are no longer limited to self-defense. In its defense budget for the fiscal year 2024, Japan specifically proposed developing the ability to attack enemy bases, which means developing large-scale armed forces capable of hitting enemy bases. Attacking enemy bases is actually attacking the enemy's territory, which is not allowed by Japan's Peace Constitution. Obviously, Japan is attempting to repeat the mistakes of launching aggressive wars during World War II. So on the day of the Victory Day of the War against Japan, Medvedev warned Japan that Japan had completely forgotten the profound lessons of World War II and why the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Japan has forgotten now, so Russia needs to remind Japan.