Hidden opportunities, important signals! This future industry that has attracted global attention

General Secretary pointed out that "integrating technological innovation resources, leading the development of strategic emerging and future industries, and accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces.".

New quality productivity is different from traditional productivity, involving new fields and high technological content, and relying on innovation driven development is the key. "Emerging industries", "future industries", and "new quality productivity" are interrelated, with clear signals and rich connotations: actively developing and cultivating emerging and future industries, leading the comprehensive revitalization of industries with technological innovation, and driving the continuous emergence of new economic growth points. Today, we recommend reading the latest plan of the People's Forum - "Future Industry Development Trends and Forward looking Layout", focusing on the new development trends of the robotics industry in terms of technology, market, and industry competition pattern.

Global trends in the development of the robotics industry

One is the trend of technological development

Cross industry technology integration is constantly deepening. Digital technology is a typical general-purpose technology, widely applied in various industries of the national economy and driving profound changes in the industries where this technology is applied, including the robotics industry. With the growing maturity of new generation digital technologies such as mobile Internet, Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and so on, it is possible to apply digital technology in the robot industry in depth. With the characteristics of high-speed, low delay and large connection, 5G technology connects industrial robots to the industrial Internet, making them an integral part of the industrial intelligent manufacturing system. The working condition data of the robot can be transmitted in real time through the industrial Internet, which can detect the operating status of the industrial robot, analyze the working efficiency, research and judge and warn potential faults. Artificial intelligence technology can significantly enhance the functionality of robots, enabling them to have abilities such as perception and decision-making. In addition, robots are increasingly closely integrated with emerging technologies such as LiDAR, satellite remote sensing, geographic information systems, virtual reality, cognitive science, biotechnology, and new materials technology, constantly enriching their forms and enhancing their functions.

Accelerate the transformation towards cloud and intelligence. Under the empowerment of the new generation of digital technology, robots are developing towards cloud and intelligence. Cloudization means that robot terminals only need to use edge computing power to process small-scale data that needs to be processed in real-time. Large scale data processing is carried out in the cloud, and system resources such as storage and computing are called on demand. This can reduce the load of storage and computing resources on robot hardware, make robots lightweight, low energy consumption, and lower the cost of using robots, better promoting the popularization of robots. In addition, data exchange between robots connected to the cloud can be more convenient, achieving unified scheduling control and collaborative work between robots. Intelligence means that robots have the ability to autonomously solve problems in complex scenarios, relying on knowledge graph databases and algorithms trained and learned from application scenario data. Robots have the ability to perceive the entire domain, make intelligent decisions, and execute accurately. Intelligent robots can perceive and understand environmental changes, and autonomously make fast and accurate decisions and responses to environmental changes. With the development and integration of artificial intelligence technology, service robots have made significant progress in natural language understanding, scene recognition, reasoning and cognition. In the future, robots will become increasingly intelligent and flexible, evolving from single perception to global perception, from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence, and from single machine intelligence to cluster intelligence.

Secondly, market application trends

The level of human-machine collaboration continues to improve. Early industrial robots carried out their work independently according to pre-set procedures, especially some heavy robots in industrial scenarios. In order to protect the safety of workers, they were limited to working in closed environments, which were isolated from humans. Although the technological level of robots is constantly improving and even greatly expanding with the support of artificial intelligence, they still cannot completely replace human work. There is a famous "Moravik paradox" in the field of artificial intelligence: machines can accomplish tasks that are difficult or even impossible for humans, but many tasks that are simple for humans are difficult for robots to accomplish. Therefore, if the collaborative work between robots and humans can be achieved, their respective advantages will be utilized, resulting in a significant improvement in production efficiency. The object that service robots directly face is humans. In the process of contact with humans, not only should they not cause harm to human safety, but they must also be able to understand human instructions. With the development of sensors such as touch, force, machine vision, speech recognition, and the integration of artificial intelligence technology with robots, robots can perceive human positions and actions, understand human instructions, and achieve human-machine collaboration and integration. In the industrial field, robots and humans can jointly perform production tasks in the same space; In the field of life, robots can provide various services to humans up close.

The application scenarios are constantly expanding. Early robots were mainly used in the industrial field, replacing heavy physical labor of workers or working in high-precision and harsh environments. They were mainly used in industries such as automobile manufacturing, shipbuilding, chemical engineering, and 3C electronics, engaged in handling, loading and unloading, welding, spraying, and other work. In recent years, the application fields of industrial robots have begun to expand to high-precision and high sensitivity scenarios such as assembly, polishing, and polishing. In addition to their application in the industrial field, service robots and special robots are also rapidly developing. In the field of service robots, with the application of various sensors such as vision and pressure, optimization of control algorithms, and development of artificial intelligence technology, the intelligence level of robots has greatly improved, and they have entered daily life such as cleaning services, education and entertainment, family companionship, welcome and shopping, and food delivery. In the field of special robots, with the continuous improvement of functions, external forms, and braking methods, the application scenarios are constantly expanding. Robots are widely used in logistics distribution, emergency rescue, medical surgery, deep-sea exploration, space exploration, national defense, and other scenarios. Especially with the demand for epidemic prevention and the need for "contactless" in daily life, the application scenarios of special robots are rapidly increasing, and the market scale demand is rapidly expanding. According to data from the International Federation of Robotics, from 2017 to 2021, the size of the industrial robot market increased from 16.3 billion US dollars to 17.5 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of only 1.8%; The market size of service robots increased from 6.6 billion US dollars to 17.2 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 27.1%. The market size of special robots increased from 3.8 billion US dollars to 8.2 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 21.2%. It can be seen that the growth rate of service robots far exceeds that of industrial robots. With the further maturity of core technologies and the further reduction of costs, service robots are expected to become the fastest growing and largest market share in the robotics industry, and will also become the focus of global competition in the robotics industry. In addition, robot technology is also penetrating into production equipment and tools, and "robotized" intelligent equipment and tools are becoming increasingly popular.

New business models are constantly emerging. The traditional business model of the robotics industry is for robot manufacturing companies to sell products to users in order to generate revenue. However, in this mode, some enterprises with weak financial and technological capabilities, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, lack purchasing funds and the ability to perform maintenance, upkeep, and application development after robot installation. In recent years, the business model of "robot as a service" has emerged. In this model, robot manufacturing enterprises provide users with services such as robot leasing, outsourcing operations, and integrated solutions. Users can flexibly rent robots according to their needs and obtain value-added services provided by robot manufacturing enterprises, significantly reducing the financial and technological barriers for robot use, thereby achieving rapid deployment of robots and intelligent upgrading of manufacturing production lines. As a result, robot manufacturing enterprises have reduced the difficulty of market promotion, accelerated business development and revenue growth. With the further integration of digital technology and robots, as well as the expansion of robot application scenarios, more new business models will emerge.

The third is the trend of industrial competition

Countries strengthen their strategic layout. After the international financial crisis, major countries around the world attach great importance to the development of advanced manufacturing and have proposed a series of strategies to revitalize the manufacturing industry, promote the return of manufacturing, and develop advanced manufacturing. Robots, as a key supporting technology in the manufacturing industry and an important driving force for manufacturing intelligence, have become a focus of attention in industrial policies of various countries. In 2018, the National Science and Technology Commission of the United States released the Advanced Manufacturing Leadership Strategy, which proposed 15 new manufacturing technologies that need to be developed and mastered in 5 major fields, including advanced industrial robots. In February 2022, the National Science and Technology Commission of the United States released a new version of the List of Key and Emerging Technologies, which also includes content on autonomous systems and robots. The European Commission's 2020 "New Strategy for European Industry" identified robots as a strategic key enabling technology for future European industry. In 2021, the French government invested 800 million euros to develop the robotics industry, half of which was used to promote the deep integration of next-generation digital technology and robotics. Robots are an important supporting technology for Japan's "Social 5.0" strategy. The Japanese government has always attached great importance to strengthening the development of robots and related technologies and industries. In 2021, the Japan Institute of Science and Technology Policy released the "2021 Technology Innovation White Paper", proposing that by 2050, through the co evolution of artificial intelligence and robots, robots can achieve autonomous learning, action, and symbiosis with humans.

Enterprises are increasing their investment efforts. The promising prospects of the robotics industry have attracted a large amount of investment and new market entities to enter. Firstly, traditional robotics enterprises continue to extend upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, expand product lines, apply new technologies, and innovate business models; The second is for a group of emerging robot companies to enter the niche markets that traditional robot companies have not yet paid attention to. These new forces rely on technological advantages different from those in power to achieve innovation in products, business models, and application scenarios; Thirdly, some technology companies have crossed boundaries and entered the field of robotics, such as Tesla and Xiaomi releasing Optimus and CyberOne humanoid robots respectively, and Amazon acquiring iRobot, a robotic vacuum cleaner. Due to their strong digital technology capabilities, especially artificial intelligence technology, these technology companies have fully utilized their accumulated expertise in the field of artificial intelligence, resulting in higher levels of intelligence in their robot products.

The Development Prospects of China's Robot Industry

The market size continues to grow. In recent years, the Chinese robot market has maintained a rapid growth momentum. From 2017 to 2021, the sales of industrial robots increased from 4.6 billion US dollars to 7.5 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth of 13.0%; The sales revenue of service robots increased from 1.2 billion US dollars to 4.9 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth of 42.2%. The proportion of sales of industrial robots and service robots in China to the global market has increased from 28.2% and 18.2% in 2017 to 42.9% and 28.5% in 2021, respectively. In the future, with the expansion of downstream demand market, the development of industrial robots will continue to improve, and it is expected that the market size will reach 9.9 billion US dollars by 2023.

Factors such as changes in factor endowments, industrial transformation and upgrading, aging population, and improved living standards will continue to drive the rapid growth of China's robot application market. One is the rapid increase in China's wage level, which is driving "machine replacement". In order to maintain a comprehensive cost advantage in labor-intensive industries and manufacturing processes, "machine replacement" has become a choice for many Chinese manufacturing enterprises and a direction vigorously promoted by the government. According to data calculations, if a company invests in a 6-axis welding robot, the cost can be recovered within about a year. Although the density of industrial robots in China reached 246 units per 10000 workers in 2020, which is about twice the world average, industrial robots have a large market space. The second is the need for high-quality development of China's industries. The Chinese government vigorously promotes various industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services to seize the development opportunities brought by the digital economy, use digital technology to empower industrial development, enhance innovation capabilities, improve production efficiency, improve product quality, and enhance user services, thereby enhancing the international competitiveness of industries. Robots are important production equipment for digital transformation, and with the deepening of China's industrial digital and intelligent upgrading, their market demand will continue to grow. The third is to meet the needs of aging population. According to the seventh national census data, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above in China has reached 18.7% of the total population, with the population aged 65 and above accounting for 13.5%. We need to accelerate the development and utilization of robots to provide elderly companionship, care, rehabilitation, and other work. The fourth requirement is the continuous improvement of living standards. The increase in income levels leads to an increase in the value of people's leisure time and a demand for high-level medical services, resulting in an increase in demand for service robots such as home services, education and entertainment, and surgical robots. According to the International Federation of Robotics, the sales of industrial robots and service robots in China will reach $11.5 billion and $10.2 billion respectively in 2024, significantly faster than the global growth rate.

★ The innovation ability is steadily improving. The Chinese robotics industry has formed a relatively complete full industry chain system, and the research and development, manufacturing capabilities of core components and complete machines continue to strengthen. After 2011, the annual growth rate of patent applications in traditional robot powerhouses such as the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea was only around 2% -3%, while the number of robot patent applications in China entered a rapid growth trajectory. From 2011 to 2020, China's robotics industry applied for a total of 20.1 million patents, accounting for 55.9% of the total global patent applications. Chinese local enterprises have made significant technological progress in key technologies and components such as precision reducers, high-performance servo drive systems, intelligent controllers, and intelligent integrated joints. They have made breakthroughs in core common technologies such as information perception and navigation, multitask planning, and intelligent control, and have achieved original results in cutting-edge technologies such as biomimetic perception and cognition and electronic skin. A group of specialized and innovative "little giants" in the robotics industry have emerged in China. Representative enterprises include Green Harmonic in the field of harmonic reducers, Nantong Zhenkang and Double Ring Drive in the RV reducer field, Huichuan Technology and Hechuan Technology in the servo motor field, and Xinsong Robotics, Xinshida, Huazhong CNC in the motor controller field.

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "adhering to the core position of innovation in China's modernization construction." Robots, as the core technology of advanced manufacturing and an important supporting technology to meet the growing needs of the people for a better life, are an important direction for China's scientific and technological innovation. With the continuous increase of support from the country for basic research and industry commonality research, the continuous increase of enterprise R&D investment and market expansion, as well as the deep integration of emerging fields such as digital technology and robotics technology, the innovation ability of China's robotics industry will continue to improve, gradually narrowing the gap with traditional robotics powers, and even achieving a global leading position in sub sectors such as service robots and specialized robots.

★ The international status continues to strengthen. While the domestic market is expanding, the Chinese robotics industry is also growing rapidly. The production of industrial robots in China reached 72000 sets in 2016, 212000 sets in 2020, an average annual growth of 31%, and 366000 sets in 2021, a year-on-year growth of 44%. In 2021, the production of service robots reached 9.214 million units, an increase of 49% compared to the previous year, and the production of special robots is also steadily increasing. The Chinese robotics industry not only covers a wide range of industry categories, including industrial robots, service robots, special robots, and their main sub sectors, but also forms a complete and independent industrial chain, including upstream research and development design, midstream reducer, servo system, motor control system, chip and other core component manufacturing, downstream whole machine manufacturing and system integration development. The development of China's robotics industry is not only due to the layout of leading global robotics companies in China, but also driven by the rapid development of local Chinese enterprises, leading to the emergence of a number of new industrial robotics forces, such as Li Qun Automation and Burkent in the field of parallel robots, Jieka Robotics and Aobo Intelligence in the field of collaborative robots, and Stand Robotics, Jizhijia, Jiazhi Technology in the field of mobile robots.

The rapid growth of domestic robot companies in China is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the large and heterogeneous domestic market. The Chinese robot market has the world's largest sales volume and maintains a high-speed growth trend, providing market opportunities for the development of domestic robot enterprises. More importantly, the demand in the Chinese robot market shows significant differences from the traditional market.

One is the rapid growth of new industrial demand. In 2011, the distribution of industrial robot application industries was as follows: the automotive industry accounted for 36%, electronic and electrical appliances accounted for 23%, metal machinery accounted for 8%, rubber and plastic accounted for 6%, and food and beverage accounted for 3%; By 2020, the electronic and electrical industry accounted for 37%, the automotive industry accounted for 27%, metal machinery accounted for 14%, rubber and plastic accounted for 6%, and food and beverage accounted for 4%. Among them, the electronic and electrical industry's share increased by 14 percentage points compared to 2011, surpassing the automotive industry to become the field with the most applications of industrial robots. China is the world's largest information and communication technology manufacturing base and product exporter, with the production of 3C electronics such as mobile phones and laptops exceeding half of the world's total. China's strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, power batteries, and photovoltaics are growing rapidly, and robots are widely used in product manufacturing and usage. In these emerging fields, world robotics giants do not have significant advantages.

The second is the diversity of industrial market demand. China has a complete range of industrial categories and a relatively complete industrial chain, while the level of enterprise development is multi-level, which forms the richness of robot application scenarios in China's industrial field and the differentiated demand for products and solutions. At present, the application of industrial robots has expanded to a wide range of fields such as welding, spraying, polishing and polishing, gluing, loading and unloading, deburring, handling, palletizing, assembly, sorting, packaging, and testing.

The third is the rapid development of the service robot market. The demand for robots is rapidly increasing in fields such as home services, logistics and distribution, elderly care, and medical services. These fields are a relatively less competitive "blue ocean", and robot companies in developed countries have not yet formed an absolute leading advantage, providing opportunities for latecomer countries and enterprises to enter.

On the other hand, there are differences in the capabilities of domestic robotics enterprises. The capabilities of multinational corporations do not fully match the heterogeneous market demand in China, and they mainly focus on the high-end market, making it difficult to cover the rich application scenarios in China, especially the differentiated niche market demand. In contrast, Chinese robotics companies are more familiar with domestic market demand and have lower costs. Some startups can enter the industry chain from niche markets with relatively small scale or relatively low technological barriers such as system integration. At the same time, China's digital economy is developed, and technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things are at the forefront of the world. By promoting the integration of digital technology and robots, innovative products, services, and business models can be created, forming a differentiated advantage for Chinese robotics enterprises. The deepening of the integration and intelligent transformation of various industries in China, as well as the wider entry of service robots into households and various service industries, have driven the sustained growth of the domestic robot market. With the improvement of the technological innovation ability of domestic robot enterprises, they can better serve the domestic market. At the same time, the improvement of international competitiveness will also help to open up the markets of countries along the "the Belt and Road" and even developed countries, thus driving the position of China's robot industry in the global industrial landscape.

How to promote the high-quality development of China's robotics industry?

Despite the continuous improvement of China's robotics industry in the domestic market, innovation capabilities, industry scale, and international status, there is still a gap between its technological level and product quality, especially in the stability and reliability of key basic components, as well as high-end complete machine products such as high-speed, high-precision, and heavy-duty, compared to developed countries. The Chinese robotics industry should leverage its advantages such as large domestic market size and developed digital economy, seize the opportunities for the development of the robotics industry, strengthen its technological innovation capabilities, and while filling the gaps in the industry foundation, forge strengths in emerging fields, promote the modernization level of the robotics industry chain and enhance international competitiveness.

Firstly, vigorously enhance industrial innovation capabilities. By relying on universities, research institutes, new research and development institutions, and backbone enterprises, we will strengthen the research and development of common technologies such as robot system development, operating systems, lightweight design, and multi robot collaboration, improve the technical level, quality, and stability of key components such as reducers, servo motors, drivers, and controllers, and enhance industrial basic capabilities. Encourage key core component enterprises, robot body and whole machine enterprises, and integrated solution enterprises to develop new products and innovate business models in response to new market demands. Support the research and innovation of complementary technologies for robots such as digital technology, new materials, and neuroscience, promote the construction of ethical and moral standards in the field of robotics, and lay a solid foundation for the development of new generation robot products.

Secondly, promote the cross-border integration and development of industries. Support cooperation between robot research and development institutions, manufacturing enterprises, digital technology research and development institutions, and digital technology enterprises, promote the deep integration of robots with digital technologies such as 5G, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and augmented reality, develop cloud and intelligent new robot products, and improve the perception, cognition, and collaborative work capabilities of robots. Provide support in the construction of incubator accelerators and financing services, encourage and support technological innovation and entrepreneurship in the field of robotics, and promote the development of technology startups with cross-border integration genes, digital technology and robotics. Actively promote the construction of industrial Internet platforms and digital and intelligent transformation in the real economy sectors such as agriculture, mining industry and manufacturing industry to provide market support for the use of intelligent robots.

Thirdly, actively expand into new markets and scenarios. Implement the "machine replacement" action in labor-intensive industries, supporting enterprises to actively use robots for technological transformation and upgrading of production facilities and equipment. Carry out pilot demonstrations of industrial robot applications, support industrial robot enterprises to develop new products and models around emerging sub industries and emerging scenarios. Encourage robotics companies to develop new products such as entertainment and leisure robots, elderly care robots, surgical robots, and humanoid robots by integrating digital technology to meet the rapidly growing demand in fields such as home, healthcare, and public services. Support cooperation between industry, academia, research and application, develop special robot products in areas such as deep-sea exploration, deep space exploration, polar scientific research, national defense and military industry, and promote the application of advanced technology in the industrial robot and service robot industries.

Fourthly, strengthen international technological and industrial cooperation. Promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, actively attract leading global robotics companies to establish production bases and research and development centers in China. Promote Chinese robot research and development institutions, manufacturing enterprises, and service enterprises to strengthen international cooperation with foreign institutions in technology research and development, standard formulation, and technological exchange. Support robot leading enterprises to strengthen investment in robot leading countries and establish overseas research and development centers. Encourage robot companies to increase their efforts in exploring overseas markets and promote the entry of industrial robots and service robots into the international market.

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Selected from the People's Forum magazine in August