Filling up one box will cost an additional 14.5 yuan, and domestic oil prices may experience the largest increase this year
At 24:00 today, domestic finished oil prices are expected to rise again, reaching a new high for the year.
During this round of price adjustment, international crude oil has shown an upward trend and exceeded $90 per barrel.
The OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC adheres to its forecast for strong global oil market demand in 2023 and 2024, as major economies are stronger than expected. The global oil market will face a supply shortage of 3.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, which may result in the most severe supply shortage in over a decade.
At present, the tightening of supply is the main reason why international crude oil prices have been soaring since September. Yu Yaxin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, believes that in the near future, Saudi Arabia and a certain country in Eastern Europe will extend their plan to reduce oil supply until the end of the year. Driven by the dual pressures of increased demand and reduced supply, inventory in the oil market is likely to further decline, and market concerns about supply shortages dominate, driving international crude oil prices to continue rising.
On September 14th, WTI crude oil futures closed at $90.16 per barrel, breaking through $90 per barrel for the first time since November 8th, 2022, continuing to hit a new year high. After two consecutive days of closing above $90, the probability of stabilizing increased significantly. Compared to June 1st, WTI crude oil futures have increased by 29%. On the afternoon of the 19th, the oil price rose to $95 per barrel, marking the first time since November last year.
According to Zhuochuang Information, the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices is about 380 yuan/ton. According to calculations, the increase in 92 # gasoline is 0.29 yuan/liter, and the increase in 0 # diesel is 0.32 yuan/liter. Filling a 50 liter tank of 92 # gasoline will cost an additional 14.5 yuan.
According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day on September 19th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 90.38 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 7.93%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 390 yuan per ton.
According to a review by China News Service, if implemented according to the upward adjustment, this is the tenth increase in domestic oil prices this year, or the largest increase in the year.
Xu Peng, a refined oil analyst at Jinlian Innovation, analyzed that there is a concentrated demand for replenishment in the market before and after the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Overall, under the dominance of positive factors, the refined oil market has remained relatively strong in recent times.
