Economist: The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 1 percentage point next year. The possibility of an economic recession in the United States is still close to 50%. Chief | Possible
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
According to Bloomberg on September 11th, the chief economists of some of the largest banks in North America have stated that the Federal Reserve has completed interest rate hikes and may lower interest rates by about one percentage point in 2024, but the possibility of a US economic recession is still close to 50%.
The members of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association include economists from JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, who regularly submit forecast reports to the Federal Reserve. The latest forecast from the institution shows that due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and credit tightening, the US economic growth will slow to below 1% annualized in the next three quarters, thereby driving up the unemployment rate.
The report shows that by the end of next year, the US unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.8% in August to 4.4%. According to Mokuta, Chief Economist of Dow Jones Global Advisors, people are still concerned about the US economy, and the ABA Economic Advisory Committee also believes that the likelihood of a US economic recession next year is close to 50%.
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