Angry! Poland claims to no longer provide weapons to Ukraine

On the 20th local time, Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky stated that he will no longer provide weapons to Ukraine.

Moravitsky made the above statement in an interview with local media when asked if he would continue to support Ukraine militarily.

In addition, Moravitsky claimed that the forced introduction of Ukrainian agricultural products into Poland harmed the interests of Polish farmers, disrupted the stability of the Polish agricultural market, suppressed grain prices, forced the Polish government to implement price limit measures, and ultimately implemented import bans.

Extended reading:

Ukraine sues EU three countries to the World Trade Organization over escalating food dispute

On September 18th, European Commission member in charge of agricultural affairs, Yanushi Voichekhovsky, stated that the EU was "shocked" by Ukraine's appeal to the World Trade Organization over the ban on importing Ukrainian agricultural products from some countries. He said that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Poland, Hungary and other countries have provided Ukraine with a lot of help. Compared with taking trade disputes to the court, it is better to resolve disputes through dialogue.

Earlier on September 18th, Yulia Svydenko, the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, stated that Ukraine had filed a lawsuit against the World Trade Organization over the ban on importing Ukrainian food from Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, stating that it "violated its international obligations". The Ukrainian side also stated that the EU should coordinate and reach a consensus on trade policies, and unilateral actions by individual countries in the field of trade are unacceptable.

After Ukraine filed a lawsuit against the World Trade Organization, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia decided to withdraw from the platform used by the EU to coordinate Ukraine's food imports, in order to prevent Ukraine from using the platform to obtain more information needed for litigation.

The EU is sandwiched in the middle and "difficult to do"

On September 15th, the European Commission reached an agreement with Ukraine to announce the lifting of restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products. But Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary subsequently announced that they would continue to implement restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products in order to protect the interests of their own farmers.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said in an interview with Hungarian media on September 15th, "We previously argued in Brussels to prevent Ukrainian food from entering Central Europe. It can be transferred through our country, but it cannot be imported here." Orban said that the Hungarian government will protect Hungarian households from the impact of inflation by all possible means. If the European Commission does not take action, Hungary, Romania, Poland, and Slovakia will extend the import ban on Ukrainian agricultural products. Hungarian Foreign Minister Siyardo stated that Hungary will not allow its own farmers to suffer destruction. Hungary's goal is to help African countries receive Ukrainian grains, rather than letting Ukrainian grains disrupt the markets of Central and Eastern European countries.

Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky stated that the European Union had made the wrong decision after learning that the European Commission had not extended the ban on Ukrainian agricultural imports. He stated that despite not obtaining the consent of the European Commission, Poland will continue to extend the import ban on Ukrainian agricultural products, as this is in line with the interests of Polish farmers. The Polish Ministry of Agriculture also announced on the same day that starting from September 16th, Poland will continue to ban the import of Ukrainian related agricultural products.

The Slovak government also announced on September 15th that it will ban the import of Ukrainian grains by the end of 2023.

Romania has issued a government statement stating that it is observing what measures Ukraine will take to control its agricultural exports before deciding to implement the correct measures to protect Romanian farmers.

Disputes are always caused by interests

As early as April this year, in response to the demand from some EU member states to stop importing food from Ukraine, EU Commission spokesperson Miriam Ferrer stated that the decision to "stop" imports was unacceptable. In her public statement, she said, "It is important to remind relevant countries that trade policies have exclusive powers. This means that only decisions can be made at the EU level, which is why we have always emphasized that unilateral actions by member states are not allowed under EU trade policies."

Ukraine is known as the "granary of Europe" and is the third largest exporter of grain in the world. Before the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Ukraine supplied over 45 million tons of grain to the global market every year. The transportation methods for Ukraine's grain exports mainly include sea and land transportation, of which about 90% of grain exports are exported by sea through various ports in the Black Sea. After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine in February 2022, the transportation of Ukrainian food to the international market was hindered. After nearly five months of negotiations, Türkiye, Russia and Ukraine agreed to cooperate with Ukraine to continue exporting food from the sea channel to the international market; Meanwhile, countries in regions such as Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria have proposed allowing Ukrainian grain to be transported by land to third country markets through these countries. For this reason, the European Union has waived tariffs and import quotas to facilitate the entry of Ukrainian food into the international market through these EU countries.

However, the resulting conflicts of interest have planted hidden dangers in the seemingly positive situation. The farmers in these agricultural products transit countries believe that the previously promised export channels have not been effective as planned, resulting in a large amount of Ukrainian food being stuck in the local area and flooding into the market, lowering the prices of their own food and causing huge losses to local farmers. In May of this year, the European Union announced temporary restrictions on the free trade of four Ukrainian agricultural products in the five Eastern European countries, amid continuous protests from multiple Eastern European countries. Romanian Minister of Agriculture Peter Daya stated that the European Commission expects farmers in Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Slovakia to lose a total of 417 million euros due to the influx of cheap food crops from Ukraine. The above five countries sarcastically express their strong support for Ukraine's food to be exported to other European countries through other neighboring countries. However, those familiar with the situation know that apart from the aforementioned five countries, Ukraine's land neighboring countries are only Belarus and Russia, with no other options for land transportation.

Ukraine's entry into Europe is still a long way off

Ukraine is currently actively striving to join the European Union. After becoming a full member of the European Union, not only will Ukraine's exports of food to Europe no longer be hindered, but the quantity and level of other types of aid will also far exceed the current military equipment based aid.

Olha Stefanishina, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro Atlantic integration, said in an interview with NBC on September 5: "We are ready to join the EU within two years, and we are making the political framework for this decision according to the process of war." In his annual speech on the situation of the EU, the President of the European Commission von der Leyen expressed his intention to include Ukraine and other countries in the EU. The European Parliament expressed support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union in a non legally binding vote as early as June this year. German Foreign Minister Berber recently reiterated Germany's support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union, saying, "As the EU, we must work quickly to ensure that we are prepared for more seats."

Analysts have pointed out that although all parties have expressed positive attitudes towards Ukraine's accession to the European Union, based on the conflict of interests between some EU member states and Ukraine over food exports, as well as the EU's stance on this conflict, the path for Ukraine to join the EU is still far away. Local European media also analyzed that in the current highly intense conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including Ukraine in the EU will bring unbearable and unpredictable serious consequences to the EU. If the EU or its members cannot even share a portion of the agricultural market with Ukraine, how can they share the risk of a direct conflict with Russia with Ukraine?