American media: Mathematical models predict that the US economy may fall into recession within the year
On September 19th, Forbes News reported that according to mathematical models, if the unemployment rate rises to 4.0% or higher in September, the United States may face an economic recession in October.
According to reports, according to a model developed by American engineer Ferba and CEO of the recession warning network, Van Warren, the likelihood of an economic recession occurring by the end of October is 73% if the unemployment rate rises to 4.0% or higher in September. Analysts say that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of the economy, but it provides signals for the beginning and end of a recession.
According to the latest employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in August was 3.8%, higher than the 3.5% in July. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that this surge has brought the number of unemployed people in the United States to 6.4 million.
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