Accumulated increase in positive factors for economic operation (authoritative release)

In August, industrial and service production accelerated, domestic demand continued to expand, the employment and price situation improved, positive factors accumulated and increased, the national economy continued to recover, and the quality of development steadily improved. On September 15th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, and Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, introduced the relevant situation.

Industrial production is gradually stabilizing, and the supporting role of the service industry is evident

Since the beginning of this year, with the economic recovery, market demand has expanded, structural adjustment has continued to advance, and industrial production has gradually stabilized. In August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month.

Fu Linghui introduced the main characteristics of current industrial production:

The high-end development of the manufacturing industry has been solidly promoted, and the high-end manufacturing industry with high technological content and added value has maintained rapid growth. In August, the added value of the aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 16.2% year-on-year, while the production of high-tech products such as integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices increased by 21.1% and 29.9%, respectively.

The green transformation has enhanced the driving force of industrial production, and the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have maintained rapid growth. In August, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 13.8% year-on-year, the production of charging stations increased by 17.4%, and the production of solar cells increased by 77.8%.

The growth of equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing is accelerating. In August, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. Among them, the automotive and electronics industries grew by 9.9% and 5.8% respectively, significantly enhancing their impact on industrial production. In August, the added value of raw material manufacturing increased by 10.4%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month.

The positive factors for the stable operation of industrial production have increased. The market demand is gradually improving. In August, the new order index in China's manufacturing procurement manager index rose to 50.2%, marking the first time since April that it has risen to a prosperous range. Affected by the improvement of enterprise production, the willingness of enterprises to purchase has increased. In August, the purchasing volume index of manufacturing enterprises rose to 50.5%, returning to the economic zone. At the same time, the decline in the national industrial producer price index in August has further narrowed, which is also beneficial for improving the efficiency of enterprises.

In this year's economic operation, the service industry is an important highlight. In August, the service industry production index increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. "With the comprehensive restoration of normal operation of the economy and society, the overall recovery of the service industry is improving, and its supporting role in economic growth is obvious." Fu Linghui gave a specific introduction——

The residential travel related service industries such as accommodation, catering, and transportation are growing rapidly. In August, the production index of accommodation and catering industry increased by 16.1% year-on-year, while the production index of transportation, warehousing, and postal industry increased by 9%; The operating passenger volume increased by 57.7% year-on-year.

The modern service industry maintains a rapid growth trend. In August, the production index of information transmission, software, and information technology services increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with an accelerated growth rate compared to the previous month.

Service industry enterprises expect overall stability. In August, the business activity index of the service industry was 50.5%, which has remained in the prosperous range since the beginning of this year; The expected index of business activities in the service industry is 57.8%, which is at a relatively high level of prosperity.

Market sales maintain rapid growth, and investment continues to play a driving role

Since the beginning of this year, the overall consumption potential has been unleashed, and the overall market sales have maintained rapid growth. It is reported that since the third quarter, due to multiple factors, the sales of some bulk commodities have slowed down, but the recovery trend of market sales is still ongoing, with a good increase in service consumption, and the driving effect of consumption continues to be evident. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month, indicating a significant rebound.

Specifically, driven by the accelerated sales of transportation and upgrading products, the growth rate of retail sales has rebounded. In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. In terms of service consumption, in August, the national catering revenue increased by 12.4% year-on-year, the national film box office revenue more than doubled year-on-year, and the performance market box office revenue also doubled.

In terms of investment, although the growth rate of investment has declined due to market adjustments and other factors since the beginning of this year, investment in key areas has continued to grow rapidly, continuing to play a driving role in economic growth. In the first eight months, fixed assets investment increased by 3.2% year on year. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 6.4% year-on-year, achieving rapid growth; Manufacturing investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points faster than from January to July. Especially, emerging industries are developing well, which has a significant supporting effect on manufacturing investment; Investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 26.5%, agricultural investment increased by 10.4%, and investment in livelihood related fields continued to increase.

From the situation in August, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Fu Linghui believes that in recent times, various regions and departments have successively introduced optimization measures to support residents' demand for rigid and improved housing, which is conducive to boosting market confidence and improving the operating expectations of real estate enterprises. "Real estate investment, sales, and market operation are expected to gradually improve."

In terms of foreign trade, the growth rate of goods imports and exports has slowed down compared to the same period last year due to factors such as global trade downturn, rising protectionism, and a relatively high base in the previous year. However, from an international comparison, it still shows strong resilience. In the first 8 months, the scale of import and export of goods remained basically the same as the same period last year, with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 0.8%. "In August, the scale of imports and exports was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. After deducting the impact of base fluctuations in the same period last year, the operation of imports and exports was basically stable." Fu Linghui believes that China's industrial competitiveness is strong, and the policies of expanding high-level opening up and stabilizing the scale and structure of foreign trade continue to be effective, which is conducive to the stable operation of foreign trade.

Macro policy measures are gradually showing effectiveness, and the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve

Looking ahead to the economic outlook, Fu Linghui stated that China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, and abundant vitality. The endogenous growth momentum of the economy is gradually increasing. "With the gradual effectiveness of macroeconomic policy measures, the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve."

The driving effect of consumption continues to emerge. The overall stability of resident employment and the gradual improvement of enterprise efficiency are conducive to increasing resident income, enhancing consumption capacity and willingness to consume. In addition, the policy of promoting consumption continues to be effective, and the overall trend of sustained consumption growth is stable, which is conducive to economic recovery.

The service industry maintains stable growth. In the next stage, the contact service industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, and the modern service industry represented by information services will continue to improve, which will support the stable and rapid growth of the service industry.

New driving forces for development continue to grow. The trend of industrial upgrading in our country continues, and production is transitioning towards digitization, networking, and intelligence, which enhances the driving force for economic development. In the first 8 months, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.3% year-on-year.

The dividends of reform and opening up continue to emerge. Actively promoting the construction of a unified national market, expanding institutional opening up, and continuously demonstrating its effectiveness. In the first eight months, China's import and export to the "the Belt and Road" countries increased by 3.6% year on year, playing a positive role in stabilizing foreign trade.

The macroeconomic policies that promote economic recovery and improvement continue to be effective. Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have introduced and implemented a number of targeted, combined, and collaborative policy measures. Recently, timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies and the introduction of measures to stimulate the vitality of the private economy have helped to enhance development momentum, boost market confidence, and promote economic recovery.

"Despite facing many challenges, the sustained economic recovery is expected to continue, and the quality of development will continue to improve," said Fu Linghui.