Accelerate! What changes happened to the Chinese economy in August?, Accelerate, accelerate

Industrial production is accelerating! The year-on-year growth rate of the service industry production index is accelerating! Market sales recovery is accelerating!

In the latest August Chinese economic performance report, multiple major indicators showed marginal improvement. What is accelerating the recovery of the Chinese economy?

Accelerate recovery! Multiple indicators show warmth

According to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, under a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent risks, industrial and service industry production accelerated, domestic demand continued to expand, the employment and price situation improved, and positive factors accumulated. The national economy continued to recover, and the quality of development steadily improved.

The latest disclosed multiple data can provide support for this. From the production side, in August, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month; The service industry production index increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month.

The highly anticipated domestic demand is also steadily expanding. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. The continuously popular service retail industry has also maintained rapid growth this year, with a year-on-year increase of 19.4% in service retail sales from January to August.

With the continuous recovery of the economy, the employment situation has improved. In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the unemployment rate of migrant agricultural registered residence labor force was 4.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The market supply and demand relationship has also been improved synchronously. In August, the consumer price index of residents increased from a decrease year-on-year, while the decline in the factory price index of industrial producers narrowed.

New driving forces for development continue to grow. In the first 8 months, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.3% year-on-year, with the added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increasing by 6% year-on-year, faster than the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size. The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 9.5%. The new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have maintained rapid growth.

Intensive moves! Continuous release of policy effects

Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research at JLL Greater China, pointed out to China News Agency that the highlight of this month's data is that the total retail sales of consumer goods, including service retail, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in a single month have further increased compared to July, and the urban survey unemployment rate continues to decline. The underlying reasons are the assistance of summer travel peak, accelerated repair of production and supply, and various policy support to maintain stable employment situation.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, also stated that the macro data in August reflects that with the support of positive factors such as frequent policy benefits, enhanced endogenous driving force of market entities, and a rebound in supply and demand, the foundation for China's economic recovery is more solid, the situation is more obvious, and the momentum is more abundant.

In fact, this data improvement is not surprising.

According to some leading indicators released earlier, the Purchasing Managers Index of the manufacturing industry has rebounded for three consecutive months, and credit data has exceeded market expectations, reflecting a positive economic recovery in August. Behind this is the sustained release of policy effects.

Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have introduced and implemented a series of targeted, combined, and collaborative policy measures, focusing on expanding domestic demand, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, and effectively exerting the comprehensive effect of policies. Especially recently, timely adjustments and optimizations to real estate policies, support for rigid and improved housing demand, and measures to stimulate the vitality of the private economy have attracted high attention from the market through a series of precise and powerful "combination punches".

On the evening of the day before the release of economic data in August, the central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio on the 15th, marking the second time this year that the reserve requirement ratio has been lowered, exceeding market expectations. Wen Bin believes that this reserve requirement reduction aims to consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and better guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, boosting market confidence.

The big exam is coming! Building a solid foundation still needs to be consolidated

For the Chinese economy, positive factors are accumulating and increasing. But as September approaches and the third quarter's big exam approaches, the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that from the trend, the domestic economy has returned to normal, and macro policies are expected to boost confidence and accelerate the repair process. At present, consumer goods consumption is still below the trend level. With the continuous release of macroeconomic policy effects, employment and income are steadily improving, market confidence is recovering and turning optimistic. Consumer momentum will gradually increase, and supply and demand will gradually enter a virtuous cycle.

But Pang Ming reminded that September is a relative consumption gap period between the summer peak and the Golden Week of November, and it is also a key period for whether commodity consumption can be replenished in a timely manner after service consumption gradually becomes normalized. In the next stage, policies still need to focus on expanding domestic demand and continuing to expand policy space for expanding consumption and promoting investment.

"With the continuous increase of policies, the bottom of economic growth and inflation has basically formed." Wen Bin said that in the future, relevant policies need to be implemented in detail, and incremental policies should be introduced according to changes in the situation to firmly support the sustained recovery and improvement of the real economy, and promote the realization of qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy.