What is the West nervous about? Putin continues to "look east", in-depth | Visit North Korea and Vietnam from today Vietnam | North Korea | Putin

According to the Kremlin on June 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a state visit to North Korea from June 18 to 19 and to Vietnam from June 19 to 20.

This is Putin's first visit to North Korea in 24 years and his first visit to Vietnam in 7 years.

Analysts said that Putin's second trip to Asia shortly after the start of his new term further demonstrated that "turning to the East" has become one of the strategic directions of Russia's diplomacy, and also highlighted Russia's multiple considerations such as consolidating traditional friendship, expanding mutually beneficial cooperation, and building a diversified diplomacy.

This is Putin's third trip abroad since he began his fifth presidential term last month. After his previous two visits to China and Belarus, Putin has turned his attention to the East this time.

Russia and North Korea share only a small land border. But as early as the Cold War, the two sides established a "special relationship". The Soviet Union is North Korea's largest trading partner and provides a large amount of military and economic assistance to North Korea. Since the beginning of this century, Russian-North Korean relations have warmed up again. Putin visited North Korea for the first time as president in July 2000, and the top leader of North Korea has also visited Russia many times.

Now, after 24 years, Putin's visit to North Korea has attracted attention from the outside world, but it is not surprising. North Korea's top leader Kim Jong-un visited Russia in September last year and invited Putin to visit North Korea. This is also the first time that Kim Jong-un has received a return visit from a Russian head of state as the top leader of North Korea.

Similar to North Korea, Vietnam's close relationship with Moscow can be traced back to the Cold War. Today, Vietnam is still regarded as one of Russia's closest partners in Asia. The two countries have long carried out oil and gas cooperation, and Russia is also Vietnam's traditional market and major arms supplier.

Putin's visit is his first state visit to Vietnam since 2017 and his fifth visit to Vietnam as president. It coincides with the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on Basic Principles of Friendly Relations between Russia and Vietnam.

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia's "Eastern diplomacy" has been continuously advancing. "Turn to the East" has become one of the strategic directions of Russian diplomacy. Putin started his second trip to Asia shortly after the start of his new term, highlighting Russia's multiple considerations: consolidating traditional friendship, expanding mutually beneficial cooperation, and enhancing diplomatic diversity.

First, let's look at North Korea. Zhang Hong noticed that North Korea has recently given Russia strong diplomatic and military support, including recognizing the four eastern Ukrainian states' entry into Russia. At present, there is no sign that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will end in the short term, and North Korea is increasingly becoming an object that Russia hopes to rely on in its asymmetric strategic game with the West. Russia hopes to strengthen cooperation with North Korea, enhance its influence in the peninsula's affairs, and also hopes to use this to strengthen its countermeasures against the West.

Looking at Vietnam, Zhang Hong pointed out that Vietnam is one of the countries with fast economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region, and its relations with the West are constantly improving, but it has not joined the team to sanction Russia. Putin's visit to Vietnam is intended to consolidate traditional friendly relations and expand cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, military industry and Far East development, as well as to take advantage of the Asia-Pacific economic growth express, maintain influence in Southeast Asia, and expand cooperation space with Asia-Pacific and "global South" countries.

In recent days, many places in Pyongyang have been making final preparations for Putin's visit. According to the Russian side, Putin's visit to North Korea is of high standard, full schedule and rich topics.

In terms of personnel composition, the delegation not only includes a number of senior officials such as Russian Defense Minister Belousov, Foreign Minister Lavrov, Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Health, and Minister of Transport, but also includes representatives from key areas such as the heads of the Russian Space Agency and the railway department, and the head of Russia's energy affairs.

In terms of itinerary, this visit includes a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders, as well as a series of activities such as a grand concert, a state banquet, a military parade, and document signing.

In terms of potential outcomes, the leaders of the two countries will discuss cooperation in security, economy, energy, transportation and agriculture; the two sides are expected to sign a number of "important documents", including the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement.

Putin published a signed article in the North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun on the 18th, saying that over the past 70 years, the two countries have developed a good partnership on the basis of equality, mutual respect and trust; Russia and North Korea will work together to elevate bilateral cooperation to a higher level; the two countries will develop a trade and settlement system that is free from Western control.

Public opinion believes that Putin's second visit to North Korea is expected to set off another climax in the development of Russian-North Korean relations. 24 years ago, the two countries jointly signed the Treaty of Friendship and Good-Neighborliness and Cooperation between Russia and North Korea, marking a new stage in bilateral relations. Now, the two countries are expected to sign the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which will elevate the good-neighborly and friendly relations to a "higher level."

Zhang Hong pointed out that signing the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and promoting the de-dollarization of international settlements may be some of the highlights of Putin’s visit to North Korea.

The former will mark a strategic upgrade in bilateral relations, help promote cooperation between the two countries in the fields of energy, technology, military industry, etc., boost North Korea's national construction, and break the isolation and sanctions imposed by the West on the two countries. The latter aims to establish an independent trade and settlement system to jointly deal with Western financial sanctions.

On the 17th, the day when the Kremlin announced Putin's visit, Vietnamese President To Lin met with Russian Ambassador to Vietnam Bezdetko in Hanoi and expressed his expectation for Putin's visit again after 7 years.

"Vietnam has always regarded Russia as one of the priority cooperation partners in Vietnam's foreign policy. The two sides have great potential for cooperation in the fields of economic and trade investment, infrastructure, tourism, and cultural exchanges... I believe that the relationship between the two countries will be further strengthened," Su Lin told Bezdetko.

According to reports, during the visit, Putin will meet with Vietnamese high-level officials such as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong and President To Lin. The two sides will announce a series of cooperation in the fields of trade, investment, technology and education, and may also discuss sensitive issues such as energy extraction and arms supply.

"The most urgent trade issue to be resolved between the two countries is bank support for currency settlements," Russian Trade Representative to Vietnam Kalinotone said last month.

Zhang Hong pointed out that Vietnam has always attached importance to its relations with Russia and Russia's influence on the global stage. The two sides have been comprehensive strategic partners since 2012. Vietnam also pursues a diversified and balanced diplomacy, hoping to enhance its balance and flexibility in the game between major powers by strengthening its relations with Russia.

"During Putin's visit to Vietnam, strengthening economic and business ties and improving the scale and quality of cooperation may become the main agenda." Zhang Hong predicts that Russia will also use this visit to showcase its image as a global power, expand its Southeast Asian market, and send a signal to the West that "Russia maintains its diplomatic activity and has not strategically retreated due to the Ukrainian crisis."

North Korea and Vietnam are both close neighbors of China. When answering relevant questions last week, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China welcomes Russia to consolidate and develop traditional friendly relations with relevant countries.

However, some Western countries are uneasy about Putin's trip to Asia.

On the one hand, the West continues to hype up Russia-North Korea plans to expand military cooperation. On the other hand, as Vietnam's largest trading partner, the United States criticized Vietnam for hosting Putin's visit. According to the report of "The Guardian", a spokesman for the US Embassy in Vietnam said when talking about this matter that no country should provide Putin with a platform to "propagate his war of aggression."

However, Vietnam seems unmoved by the US's meddling. Before Putin's visit, Vietnam not only did not attend the Ukrainian "Peace Summit" held in Switzerland last weekend, but also sent its deputy foreign minister to Russia to attend the BRICS meeting earlier last week.

"The West has been hyping up the Russian-North Korean military cooperation," Zhang Hong pointed out. They believe that Russia is a major military power with technical reserves and resources in nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles. North Korea has made rapid progress in military modernization in recent years. Therefore, they are mainly worried about two points.

First, the strengthening of cooperation between Russia and North Korea will make the military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula develop in a direction that is favorable to North Korea, thereby putting greater pressure on the US allies Japan and South Korea. Second, Russia can take the opportunity to put pressure on the West and attract more attention from the West, thereby reducing the pressure it is under in Europe.

Ultimately, the West, especially the United States, is worried that its hegemony in Northeast Asia will be shaken.

As for the US's dissatisfaction with Vietnam, some Western people "responded" that Vietnam's invitation to Putin just shows that it pursues "bamboo diplomacy" and promotes a flexible and pragmatic policy of balancing major powers. Given Vietnam's importance in the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy", it is estimated that Washington will not impose punitive sanctions on Hanoi.