Is humanity at its "most dangerous moment"? The number of nuclear warheads deployed in actual combat around the world is increasing

The number of nuclear bombs deployed in actual combat around the world increases year by year, and nuclear risks intensify.

According to a report on June 17, the latest annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden pointed out that the total number of nuclear warheads deployed in actual combat by various countries continues to increase.

The report said that the United States now has 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads and 1,938 in storage. The picture shows the United States' independently targetable reentry vehicles.

About 2,100 nuclear warheads are on "high alert"

According to the report, as of January this year, the total number of nuclear warheads in the world is estimated to be 12,121, 90% of which are owned by the United States and Russia, of which about 9,585 are usable, and the rest are retired but not completely dismantled warheads. Compared with the total number of nuclear warheads in the same period last year, which was 12,512, this year's number has decreased by 391. However, the report pointed out that the total number of nuclear warheads in the world has continued to decline slowly mainly because some retired nuclear warheads have been dismantled, while the total number of usable nuclear warheads is actually increasing.

Although the gradual dismantling of nuclear weapons during the Cold War has led to a continuous decline in the total number of nuclear warheads in the world, the number of operational nuclear warheads deployed on missiles and aircraft in actual combat is still increasing year by year.

The actual number of available nuclear warheads increased from 9,576 in 2023 to 9,585 in 2024, compared with 9,490 in 2022. The report said that the actual number of combat nuclear warheads loaded on missiles and aircraft was 3,904, an increase of 60 compared with 2023, and about 2,100 deployed warheads were in a "high state of combat readiness."

The increase in the number of deployed nuclear warheads reflects the increasing reliance of several nuclear-weapon states on nuclear weapons in maintaining national security. Wilfred Wan, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's Weapons of Mass Destruction Program, said in a statement: "We have never seen nuclear weapons play such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War."

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Director Smith issued a statement on the 17th saying that the total number of operational nuclear bombs is likely to continue to increase and may increase rapidly in the next few years. He said: "This is extremely worrying." He described the world as being at "the most dangerous moment in human history" and therefore called on the world's major powers to exercise restraint in nuclear weapons.

In early June, the United States tested two Minuteman III intercontinental missiles in three consecutive days.

Zhang Gaosheng, a researcher at the Institute of World Peace and Security at the China Institute of International Studies, analyzed to The Paper that the increase in the number of nuclear bombs deployed in actual combat is the result of the increasing rigidity in relations between the two major nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, in recent years. It also shows that the nuclear confrontation and nuclear arms race between the United States and Russia have reached a new height, which deserves the international community's high vigilance.

The report said that almost all of these warheads belong to the United States and Russia, but the report pointed out for the first time that China also believed that some of its nuclear warheads were on high combat alert. On June 17, at the regular press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded to relevant questions. A reporter from the Nihon Keizai Shimbun asked a question. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released a report analyzing that in January this year, the number of China's nuclear warheads increased by 90 compared with the same period last year, and it is estimated that there are 500 warheads, of which 24 nuclear warheads may have begun to be installed on launch devices.

Lin Jian said that the white paper "China's National Defense in the New Era" released by China clearly expounds China's nuclear strategy of self-defense. The relevant strategy maintains a high degree of stability, continuity and predictability. It is recommended that you read it carefully. "If you are really interested in strategic security issues, it is recommended that you pay more attention to the United States' huge investment in upgrading its triad nuclear forces, strengthening nuclear sharing and extended deterrence, which are the major issues that truly concern global strategic stability." Lin Jian said.

"But after the report came out, some Western media focused on the number of Chinese nuclear weapons, which is actually still hyping up the Chinese nuclear threat theory. The United States and Russia have the vast majority of nuclear weapons in the world, and the nuclear arms race and nuclear confrontation between the United States, Russia and Europe should be the focus of attention," Zhang Gaosheng pointed out. "China has long promised not to use nuclear weapons first and has always maintained its nuclear force at the minimum level required for national security."

In terms of the specific number of nuclear warheads, the report said that the United States now has 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads and 1,938 in storage, while Russia has 1,710 deployed nuclear warheads and 2,670 in storage.

It is worth mentioning that the United States may increase the number of nuclear warheads in the future. On June 7, the senior director of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation at the National Security Council of the United States, Vardy, said that if the opponent's nuclear arsenal maintains the current development trend, the United States may increase the number of deployed nuclear warheads. This statement is obviously different from the "2022 Nuclear Posture Review Report" released by the Biden administration and the statements of senior officials such as US Secretary of Defense Austin that there will be no increase in the deployment of strategic nuclear forces against China and Russia.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons and SIPRI published a report simultaneously saying that amid escalating geopolitical tensions, nuclear-weapon states have increased their spending on nuclear arsenals by a third over the past five years. ICAN's 2023 Global Nuclear Weapons Expenditure Report pointed out that last year, the nine nuclear-weapon states invested $91.4 billion in their nuclear arsenals, $10.8 billion more than in 2022. Among them, the United States spent the most, $51.5 billion, and Russia spent $8.3 billion. When ICAN began collecting this data in 2018, the total spending of countries that year was $68.2 billion, a surge of 33% in five years.

On the arms control front, the report notes that in 2023, nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy suffered further setbacks. In February 2023, Russia announced it would suspend its participation in the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, the last nuclear arms control treaty limiting the strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States. In response, the United States also suspended the sharing and publication of treaty data. In November, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, citing an “imbalance” with the United States, which had not ratified the treaty since it was opened for signature in 1996. However, Russia confirmed that it would remain a signatory and would continue to participate in the work of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization.

Last month, Russia officially announced that the "Bulava" submarine-launched ballistic missile was officially put into service.

NATO discusses putting more nuclear weapons on 'alert'

Coincidentally, just one day before the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released the report, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg announced in an interview with the media that NATO was discussing the deployment of more nuclear weapons, taking them out of warehouses and putting them on "standby status."

Stoltenberg claimed that NATO member states had held on-site consultations on the issue of missile depots and standby, declaring that transparency in the nuclear arsenal would be used as a "deterrent measure." "The United States is modernizing its nuclear-tipped gravity bombs in Europe, and European allies are also modernizing aircraft that will be used to carry out NATO nuclear missions."

But Stoltenberg did not disclose how many nuclear weapons would be put on "alert." Stoltenberg said he would not disclose details such as how many nuclear warheads would be put on alert, but NATO was negotiating on these issues.

From February to May this year, NATO held the "Resolute Defender" nuclear exercise, which was the largest NATO exercise in Europe in decades. Currently, the United States has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. In June 2021, the website of the Nuclear Weapons Project of the Institute for Peace and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg in Germany announced that the United States has more than 100 B61 nuclear bombs stored in military bases in Europe and Turkey.

The United States' nuclear weapons deployed in Europe are being upgraded, and both nuclear bombs and delivery platforms will be upgraded.

Currently, the United States is deploying the latest B61-12 nuclear bomb with precision strike capability to Europe. In March this year, the US Air Force F-35A fighter jet has obtained the qualification certification to carry the new B61-12 nuclear bomb, which means it will become the world's first fifth-generation fighter with nuclear strike capability.

Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, believes that the F-35A's ability to carry the B61-12 nuclear bomb is a milestone in the United States' ongoing efforts to modernize its nuclear arsenal. He said: "With the full production of the B61-12 and the certification of the F-35A fighter jets of four NATO allies, Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, and the US Air Force in Europe to carry nuclear weapons, the stage is set for the upgrade of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe."

The report said that as for the reason for increasing the number of "standby" nuclear weapons, Stoltenberg said it was to respond to the so-called "growing threats from Russia and China."

Regarding Stoltenberg's remarks, according to TASS on the 17th, Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov said that NATO members are discussing putting their nuclear weapons on standby, "which is only increasing tensions." Peskov said that unlike NATO officials, Russia never "actively talks about" nuclear weapons because it attaches great importance to the issue of nuclear weapons.

Stoltenberg made the remarks at a time when Russia was holding a non-nuclear strategic nuclear force exercise. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 11th that according to the decision of the Russian president, the second phase of the non-strategic nuclear force exercise has begun. During the exercise, the armed forces of Russia and Belarus will practice the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on social media that the purpose of the second phase of the exercise is to maintain the combat readiness of Russia and Belarus' non-strategic nuclear weapons equipment and personnel and to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian-Belarusian Union State.

The first phase of the non-strategic nuclear force exercise began in the Russian Southern Military District on May 21. During the exercise, personnel from the Russian Southern Military District practiced obtaining and loading special training ammunition for the "Iskander" operational tactical missile system, advancing covertly to designated positions, and preparing for missile launches. The Russian Aerospace Forces aviation force personnel conducted training such as loading special training ammunition for the "Dagger" hypersonic missile and launching it to designated areas.