Disagreement in Israel's wartime cabinet becomes public, in-depth | Gantz "issues ultimatum to prime minister, not Hamas" Dinlon | Gantz | in-depth | Gantz
In the more than seven months of attacking Gaza, Netanyahu has not achieved any of his goals of annihilating Hamas and rescuing detainees, but crises have come one after another. Previously, it encountered the largest anti-government protests. Now, the wartime cabinet is showing signs of danger of "disintegration".
On the 18th local time, Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet, issued an ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, requiring the government to complete the formulation of a post-war governance plan for Gaza by June 8, otherwise he will lead the National Unity Party to withdraw from the war. cabinet.
Outsiders believe that Gantz's latest statement more clearly exposed the internal rifts within Israel's top leadership and further made the internal strife public. In the future, the survival of Israel's war cabinet will be questioned, and even the stability of Israel's political situation will be questioned.
On the 18th, Gantz called out Netanyahu at a press conference, urging the latter to reach a consensus on military operations in Gaza.
Gantz laid out an action plan containing six strategic goals, including rescuing all detained persons; ending the Palestinian Islamic resistance movement’s control of Gaza and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip; and clarifying the post-war governance of Gaza - what will be done after the conflict is over. The United States, European countries, Arab countries and Palestinians jointly implement civil administration of the Gaza Strip; normalize relations with Arab countries, etc.
He asked Netanyahu to accept this plan by June 8 at the latest, otherwise he would withdraw from the war cabinet and "rely on the people to form a new government that can achieve real victory."
After a new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel broke out on October 7 last year, Netanyahu and Gantz, leader of the opposition National Unity Party, announced the formation of a wartime cabinet to deal with wartime affairs. Gantz served as a member of the war cabinet.
In his speech that day, Gantz also criticized Netanyahu for serious problems in the way he handled the conflict.
"A small group of people occupied the bridge of the Israeli ship and led it to the rocks." Gantz said, "Personal and political calculations have penetrated" Israel's national security.
Israeli public opinion believes that Gantz is referring to members of the far-right parties in the Israeli government who refuse to compromise on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and threaten to quit the government.
Gantz called on Netanyahu to choose between "unity and division" and "victory and disaster."
Gantz's words were seen as an ultimatum to Netanyahu.
Regarding the post-war Gaza governance plan, all parties, including the Israeli government, have different ideas. In February this year, Netanyahu proposed a post-war governance plan, suggesting that the Israeli military might reoccupy Gaza.
But in recent months, Netanyahu has sidestepped questions about postwar governance, saying Israel must focus on "destroying Hamas."
Some observers believe that Netanyahu is trying to avoid early elections by delaying the war and thereby retaining power.
Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, said that the intention of Gantz’s latest statement can be interpreted from both public and private levels.
Yu Gong expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's delay in achieving the goals of military operations - annihilating Hamas and rescuing detained personnel, and failing to formulate a post-war governance plan for Gaza, and pressured the government to make decisions on related issues.
Some of the latest developments also gave Gantz more confidence when he issued the ultimatum.
On the 17th and 18th, Israel stated that it found the bodies of four people detained by Hamas.
At the same time, on the 18th, the Israeli army advanced its offensive towards northern Gaza. In January this year, the Israeli military announced the end of its main operations in the north, but this month it returned to parts of northern Gaza.
Dinlong pointed out that these developments show that the military operation goals set by the Netanyahu government have failed, and northern Gaza has not been controlled as it claimed.
Privately, Gantz wants to take advantage of the ineffective progress of the war in Gaza, use retreat to advance, push for early elections, and compete for the throne of prime minister.
Last month, Gantz called for early elections to rebuild people's trust in the government.
Opinion polls show that Gantz, a former defense minister and retired senior general from the center-left camp, is Netanyahu's most powerful political opponent and is considered the most promising to become the next prime minister.
Netanyahu refused to accept Gantz's ultimatum.
Netanyahu's office responded in a statement on the 18th that Gantz "issued an ultimatum to the prime minister, not Hamas" and that Gantz's conditions would lead to "the war ending with Israel's defeat and the abandonment of most of the hostages." , questioning Gantz’s attempt to “find excuses to bring down the government.”
As the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been postponed to this day, conflicts within the Israeli wartime cabinet have gradually surfaced.
In March this year, Gantz secretly visited the United States without Netanyahu's knowledge, which was considered to be a sign of division.
Just a few days before Gantz's attack, another member of the war cabinet and current Defense Minister Galante also opened fire on Netanyahu.
On the 15th, Galante publicly questioned Netanyahu's post-war plan for Gaza, demanding that he give up reoccupying Gaza and prepare a "government agency to replace Hamas", otherwise he would not stay in office.
Galante belongs to the Likud party led by Netanyahu, and his explosive remarks were interpreted as the Israeli military leadership's dissatisfaction with Netanyahu has reached its peak.
Now coupled with the "firepower" of Gantz's criticism, Israeli public opinion believes that this is the "most serious political challenge" Netanyahu has faced since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
In Ding Long's view, the wartime cabinet discord sent several important signals.
First of all, it reflects that Israel has fought a "muddle-headed war" in Gaza for more than seven months and is now at a crossroads.
"Before, the outside world did not know how Israel's top leaders carried out strategic and tactical deployment of military operations in Gaza. Now, the exposure of internal differences shows that Israel's operations in the past seven months have been completely disorganized," Ding Long said.
Secondly, it reflects that Netanyahu is struggling to survive in the cracks and may face greater pressure in the future.
At present, Netanyahu is under heavy pressure from both inside and outside.
From the inside, it is squeezed by two forces.
One side is a moderate force demanding a ceasefire agreement with Hamas and the release of hostages;
The other side is the far-right hardline forces who demand the continuation of the military offensive against Rafah and vow to fight Hamas to the end.
"No matter what Netanyahu does, he will offend one of the parties, which may lead to the collapse of the government and his resignation," Ding Long said.
At the same time, there are endless protests from the Israeli people.
On the 18th, thousands of Israelis rallied again, demanding a ceasefire and an agreement to release hostages, as well as a new round of elections.
From the outside, Netanyahu is also under pressure from his closest ally, the United States, to clarify his operational strategy in Gaza and post-war governance plans.
Currently, Sullivan, the U.S. President’s national security adviser, is visiting the Middle East to discuss the current situation with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Sullivan is scheduled to meet with Netanyahu on the 19th local time.
White House National Security Council spokesman Kirby said that Sullivan will emphasize the need for a targeted attack on Hamas during the meeting with Netanyahu, rather than launching an all-out attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
The third signal reflects the fierce struggle within the Israeli political arena, showing signs that the political situation may change.
Ding Long pointed out that according to common sense, the country is in a state of war and should share the same hatred of the enemy and deal with the outside world in unison. However, Israel is deeply divided, which is rare.
"June 8 will be an important time window to observe changes in the political situation in Israel." Ding Long said that it is related to whether the wartime cabinet can survive and even whether Israel will hold an early election, which may affect Netanyahu's political fate and the Gaza conflict. towards.
However, some analysts believe that judging from the current power structure, even if Gantz leads his party to withdraw from the war cabinet, it will not be enough to cause the collapse of the Netanyahu government.
Because the National Solidarity Party led by Gantz only holds 12 of the 120 seats in the Israeli Knesset, Netanyahu's Likud party and the ruling coalition still have more than half of the seats in the Knesset.
Others point out that once Gantz withdraws from the group, it may have two effects. First, it will damage the image of wartime unity that Netanyahu is trying to create; second, Netanyahu's future decisions may be even more constrained by Far-right allies, as losing their support would collapse the coalition.
It is worth noting that even as Israel's top leaders were quarreling, the Israeli army did not relax its frontline offensive. On the one hand, it continues to expand ground military operations in Rafah; on the other hand, it re-enters parts of the northern Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, ceasefire talks in Gaza have stalled after the last round of talks in Cairo ultimately fell short.
The war in Gaza has been raging for a long time. "The war in the future will require Israel to make major choices, but the most right-wing government in history led by Netanyahu may not be able to take on the important role," Ding Long said.
In Ding Long's view, the internal strife in the wartime cabinet revealed subtle trends in potential changes in Israel's political situation. In the future, whether the Gaza conflict will see the dawn of peace and whether Israel will come up with a package of systematic solutions to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the opportunity for change may lie in whether the political situation in Israel changes.
