Not just scallops! The impact of nuclear wastewater discharge into the sea on Japan's economy has become apparent

The Japanese government seems to be panicking too.

According to a report by Kyodo News Agency, the Japanese government has established a total of 80 billion yen fund in the past half month to support the aquatic industry affected by the discharge of nuclear wastewater into the sea.

So, which specific industries will be affected? What is the extent of the impact?

Further shrinking fisheries

The first to suffer from the discharge of nuclear wastewater into the sea must be the fishing industry.

Will this have a significant impact on the Japanese economy?

From a macro perspective, it may be negligible.

According to the latest data from the Japanese Cabinet Office, the output value of Japan's fishing industry in 2021 was 637 billion yen, accounting for 0.12% of the total GDP. There is a significant gap compared to pillar industries such as manufacturing, real estate, and wholesale and retail trade.

The contribution rate of fisheries to GDP growth is extremely low, only 0.04% in 2022. In the past decade, the largest year-on-year growth rate in fisheries reached 14.88%. Due to the small total amount, the contribution rate is still less than 1%, only 0.55%.

But for industries and fishermen, this is undoubtedly a huge impact.

In fact, the fishing industry in Japan has long been declining and declining. And this year's discharge of nuclear wastewater into the sea will be an even worse move.

The data from the Japan National Bureau of Statistics can be traced back to 1994, when Japan's fishery production value was 143.05 billion yen, which was the peak of production value.

Since then, it has been decreasing year by year, and in the 21st century, the output value has not exceeded 1 trillion yen. The output value in 2021 is less than half compared to 27 years ago.

The output value is declining, and the consumer market is also shrinking.

According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, since 1990, Japanese fish and seafood consumption has fluctuated and decreased, from a peak of 72.19 kilograms per person per year to a low of 45.57 kilograms, a reduction of 40%.

So in the short term, the hardest hit must be the fishermen.

According to reports, about 100 fishermen and citizens from Fukushima and neighboring counties and cities will file a lawsuit with the Fukushima court on September 8th to prevent nuclear wastewater from continuing to be discharged into the sea.

Exports are bound to be cut in half

The domestic market is shrinking, and exports will also be halved.

Although aquatic products are not a key export commodity for Japan, accounting for around 0.25% throughout the year. But the total export volume is not a small amount.

In 2022, Japan's total exports of aquatic products to the world also reached 1.97 billion US dollars. And in the past decade, it has also maintained a fluctuating upward trend. In 2021, the year-on-year increase reached 35.5%.

But from the current situation, this growth will come to an abrupt end.

Because China and South Korea are important exporters of Japanese aquatic products, accounting for approximately 45% in 2022. The ban on Japanese aquatic products by both countries will affect their $870 million aquatic product exports.

Among them, the price of scallops has shown a decline.

In 2022, Japan exported 46.7 billion yen of scallops to China. Due to China's ban, exports have stagnated, and the current circulation of scallops in Japan has increased, leading to a decline in market conditions and a year-on-year decrease of about 30% in scallop prices.

So recently, the Japanese government has also been actively exploring the US and Southeast Asian markets to replace China's position in its aquatic products.

Short term impact on tourism industry

In addition to fishing, the tourism industry will also be affected in the short term.

The tourism industry is one of the pillar industries of Japan's economy.

In 2003, Japan implemented a strategy of establishing a country through tourism, helping its tourism industry to step onto the fast lane and steadily develop into one of the main tourist destinations for world tourists.

Before the outbreak of the pandemic in 2019, the tourism industry contributed approximately 7.3% to Japan's gross domestic product. Among them, foreign tourists contributed 4.8 trillion yen in tourism revenue through consumption.

Both China and South Korea are the main players in terms of tourist numbers and consumption power.

Before the epidemic, Chinese tourists contributed half of Japan's tourism market.

And South Korea also accounts for 17.5%, with 5.58 million tourists.

Chinese tourists also spend the most money.

In 2019, tourists from Chinese Mainland contributed 1770.4 billion yen to Japan's tourism economy, accounting for 36.8%. In addition, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong accounted for more than half, accounting for 55.6%.

After Japan initiated the discharge of nuclear wastewater into the sea, the people of China and South Korea expressed dissatisfaction and resistance, and this dissatisfaction quickly reflected in a decrease in willingness to travel to Japan.

According to statistics, 87% of Weibo users stated that they will not consider traveling to Japan in the near future. At the same time, some social media users have also expressed a decrease in confidence in Japanese products and will consider suspending their use or purchasing.

It was originally expected that cross-border tourism in Japan would reach a new high this year and reach a peak around National Day. However, the trend of Japan's tourism industry in the second half of this year is still unknown due to the impact of Japan's nuclear sewage discharge into the sea.

From the above data, it can be seen that Japan's insistence on dumping nuclear wastewater despite opposition from neighboring countries will inevitably affect its economic development and cause certain losses.

On the other hand, the impact of nuclear wastewater cannot be measured by the billions of dollars mentioned above. It puts the global marine ecology and human health at risk of radiation pollution, which is no longer just an economic problem for a country, but a life-threatening dilemma.