Has the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rebounded? The new policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" has passed for ten days

On September 1st, Shanghai and Beijing successively announced the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy.

As the name suggests, as long as a homebuyer does not have a house under the local name, regardless of whether they have had a mortgage before, they can enjoy the first home execution loan policy, enjoy down payment ratio and interest rate discounts. At this point, all first tier cities have taken the initiative to promote the optimization of real estate policies.

So, what have been the changes in the real estate market in first tier cities since the policy was promulgated?

The heat has increased, but the increase in transaction size is limited

Firstly, it can be confirmed that the heat of the first tier real estate market has indeed rebounded, as there has been an increase in the number of people viewing properties.

According to data from the China Index Research Institute, after the policy was implemented, the national willingness to purchase property increased by 15 percentage points, with significant increases in Shanghai and Beijing, both exceeding 20 percentage points.

According to data from Shanghai Lianjia, in the first weekend of policy relaxation, the viewing volume of Lianjia stores increased by more than 30%.

The same goes for Le Youjia's Shenzhen store. The first weekend's viewership reached its highest point in a single day since mid March, an increase of 50% compared to the Sunday average level in the second and third quarters.

However, due to the fact that "buying a house but not a loan" first stimulates consumers with a demand for replacement, compared to new houses, the transaction volume of second-hand houses is the first to rise, and the overall transaction scale of the new house market is not significantly increasing. It will still take some time for the policy to take effect.

From September 1st to 10th, the number of commercial housing transactions in Shanghai was the highest among first tier cities, reaching 3761 units. However, compared to the previous ten days, it still decreased by about 40%; Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 24% and 27% respectively; Only Guangzhou is relatively stable, with a slight increase of 3%.

The second-hand housing market is relatively active.

According to data from Zhuge Data Research Center, since the implementation of the policy, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has all experienced varying degrees of increase.

Last week, Shenzhen had the largest increase, with a month on month increase of 22.61%.

Next are Shanghai and Beijing, with month on month growth of 18.5% and 3.27%.

The transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has been continuously declining since the 13th week of this year. Until the 31st week, the market gradually rebounded. Currently, we have achieved a continuous increase in trading volume for 5 weeks. The trading volume this week was 3163 sets, showing an overall positive trend.

Increase in supply of second-hand housing market

The housing transaction data has not significantly improved, partly due to the lag in online signing data.

But if we look at the listing volume of second-hand houses, the market has indeed become active. Due to the demand for replacement, consumers are entering the stage of "selling houses" one after another, while improvement oriented home purchases will increase in the future.

From the data, the index of second-hand housing listings in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou has all rebounded. Among them, Shanghai's second-hand housing listing volume index showed the largest increase.

The listing volume index is an indicator used to measure the level of activity in the second-hand housing market. If the index rises, it indicates that there are more housing options for buyers to choose from in the market, and there is sufficient supply in the second-hand housing market; If the index decreases, it indicates a tight supply in the second-hand housing market.

That is to say, except for Shenzhen, after the introduction of the new policy, the number of second-hand houses sold in first tier cities has significantly increased.

Specifically, let's take a look at the situation in Shanghai.

After the release of the new policy, the number of second-hand housing in Shanghai has surged. The next day, the number of newly released second-hand properties on Lianjia reached 1204, an increase of nearly 160% compared to the previous day.

On September 3rd, it reached its peak at 1499 sets.

From a geographical perspective, the most newly released second-hand houses are located in Pudong New Area, with 2406 units, and an average of over 240 second-hand houses for sale every day.

Next are Minhang, Baoshan, Songjiang, and Jiading, with a total housing supply of over 500 units.

In addition, the wave of second-hand houses in Shanghai has obvious characteristics of replacement and improvement.

Because the main characteristics of newly listed properties are small area and low total price.

Data shows that 75% of second-hand housing prices are below 6.3 million yuan, mainly in small and medium-sized units, and 95.5% of second-hand housing areas are below 150 square meters.

Of course, there are also a few large layouts. The current largest layout is in Qingpu, with four bedrooms and one living room, covering an area of over 500 square meters.

Stable housing prices

Has housing prices been affected after the new policy was promulgated?

On the new housing market, it is expected that housing prices in first tier cities will gradually stop falling.

According to the China Real Estate Index System's Hundred Cities Price Index, housing prices in first tier cities have been declining year-on-year for seven consecutive months. Under the influence of favorable policies, housing prices are expected to gradually stabilize.

In terms of second-hand houses, due to the increase in the number of listings, some cities have seen a slight increase in prices in the short term, but overall they remain stable.

According to data from Zhuge's search for a house, the number of property listings with increased prices in Beijing and Shanghai has increased due to the impact of the new policy.

But like in Shenzhen, the number of properties with increased prices has not changed much, but rather the number of properties with reduced prices has increased.

According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, 65% of the properties sold in Shenzhen stores from September 1st to 5th were sold below the reference price. Moreover, among the adjusted housing prices, 72.8% have been lowered, indicating that many homeowners hope to sell their old houses during the active market period in order to replace them.

However, overall, there has been no significant change in the price index for the sale and listing of second-hand houses in first tier cities. In the 37th week, the Shanghai second-hand housing sales and listing price index saw the largest increase, but only 0.56%; However, the growth rates in Beijing and Shenzhen were less than 0.1%, at 0.03% and 0.06% respectively; Shenzhen even saw a month on month decrease of 0.15%.

From the current perspective, driven by the new policies, first tier cities are expected to usher in a "golden nine silver ten" real estate market, and the previously backlog of housing demand will be released. However, due to the fact that residents' income perception and employment expectations have not yet recovered, their willingness to purchase houses with leverage may be lower than in previous years, so the recovery of the real estate market still needs some time.