The U.S. election is ahead of schedule and "the bayonet is red", second glance | "Trump was found guilty" is a double-edged sword

On the 30th, a New York court jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony charges in the "hush money" case, setting another embarrassing record as "the first former president to be convicted in the history of the United States." But what is even more concerning is that, as the Republican candidate, Trump is more than five months away from voting in the general election. The verdict and demonstration effect of this case may revitalize his return to the White House. twists and turns.

Will Trump go to jail? Professionals believe that although Trump has been found guilty, he is still a long way from actually going to jail. According to US media reports, the crime of falsifying business records is punishable by up to four years in prison. But a former Manhattan district attorney believes Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison in the hush money case. One is because "the seriousness of the crime does not warrant imprisonment," and the other is because considering that Trump is the Republican Party's basically certain candidate for the presidential election, sentencing him to prison will cause more trouble. Among the many criminal lawsuits Trump has faced, including accusations of overturning the election and improperly handling confidential documents, the "hush money" case is generally considered the least serious one.

Trump apparently rejected the guilty verdict. Although his expression was gloomy and he could not hide his disappointment, he later gave a speech outside the court, calling the move a "shame" and "the trial is illegal". "The real verdict will be made by the people on November 5." He argued vehemently that the move left him unscathed because "the jury's verdict is irrelevant." He shouted to his supporters, "In this dark moment, I beg you to stand with me now. I know that with you standing by my side, we will take back the White House and make America great again!" According to reports, in 2024 Voting day for the US general election is November 5th. By then, Biden and Trump are expected to face off again. In March this year, Trump locked up the Republican presidential nomination for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“It may not hurt much, but it is extremely insulting” – this is the word used to describe the current sentence Trump is facing, and it may be the perception of many people. According to Zhang Chunman, an associate researcher at the School of Marxism at Fudan University, Trump's conviction is unprecedented in the entire political history of the United States. This verdict is a milestone event in this year's US election that connects the past and the future. It marks the end of the relatively mild phase of the early struggle between the two parties and directly enters the "bayonet-saw-red" phase in advance. Normally, according to the process of general elections in previous years, it is usually after the two parties hold their respective national congresses that candidates from both parties will engage in real-life political attacks. This time it was nearly two months ahead of schedule. This will make this year's general election very fierce, and there will be more and more intense fights between the two parties and political attacks between candidates.

Zhang Chunman pointed out that there is no doubt that the verdict of this case will put Trump in a very disadvantageous position to a certain extent. Being entangled in lawsuits and being found guilty in an election year means that Trump will be exhausted and the entire rhythm will be disrupted. But he is very likely to use this kind of case to further shape his image of being "persecuted" by the Biden administration and the Democratic Party to play the sympathy card, thereby solidifying and mobilizing his base of voters and making them realize that only by letting them If you are elected, only by defeating Biden can you completely reverse the political atmosphere and ecology of the United States. For example, he will further increase his campaign fundraising and call on more voters to support him with real money. According to reports, later that day, Trump quickly posted on his campaign website that he would “never give in” and “took the opportunity” to call on supporters to donate to his campaign.

Biden is obviously happy to see Trump convicted, as can be seen from the Biden administration's statement after the verdict came out. Although the President of the United States has repeatedly emphasized the "authority of the law", saying that "no one can transcend the so-called law." But more importantly, he did not forget the true significance of this incident for this year's election showdown. He proposed to his supporters that the real way to defeat Trump is not in the courts but at the ballot box and polling stations. The Associated Press stated that whether he is found guilty or sentenced to prison, it will not affect Trump's qualifications to run for President of the United States. Zhang Chunman said that the Biden administration is actually very clear that such a verdict will not directly impose a "death penalty" on Trump's campaign, and it will not directly strangle Trump's campaign, but it has great symbolic significance. At the same time, the Biden administration is also very vigilant about the effects of such a double-edged sword. Biden and the entire Democratic Party will continue to play the "guilty" card, which is to tell American voters that Trump is guilty and that you should not elect a guilty person, thereby mobilizing their base to launch a fatal blow in the end. The emergence of this verdict will only further accelerate the political battle between the two parties, and will further show us that the two parties will use all their strength to attack each other, even without a bottom line, using various means. This year's U.S. election will surely feature many events that are beyond everyone's expectations and will create American history.