Second Eye | Nuclear bombs and peace talks: Russia uses both soft and hard tactics?
Restarting negotiations is a word that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly mentioned recently when talking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, this suggestion has not received a positive response from Ukraine and the West, and the unabated stance of NATO and the United States has made this This idea is more wishful thinking. At the same time, Putin also showed his tough side. Russia's first tactical nuclear weapons exercise, held under his personal instruction, has begun. By playing the two cards of nuclear bombs and peace talks, what signal does Russia send? What is the real purpose of holding tactical nuclear weapons exercises?
"Russia is ready to continue negotiations on the Ukrainian issue." On the 28th, Putin, who was on a state visit to Uzbekistan, once again talked about the topic of restarting negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Just a few days ago, Putin expressed his willingness for peace talks, saying that "Russia is willing to continue negotiations with Ukraine," but the prerequisite for returning to negotiations is that "it cannot be divorced from the current battlefield reality." Putin's statement aroused great concern from all walks of life.
However, Ukraine and the West as a whole seem to have a muted response to this. The United States claims that it does not believe that Putin is truly interested in peace talks. The subtext seems to say that Russia is "just showing up." The United States believes that "the most important thing to do now is to stabilize the battlefield situation in Ukraine." Ukrainian President Zelensky’s response was more “direct” and believed that it was impossible to consider a ceasefire with Russia. This means that when Russia releases a signal for negotiation, the West does not intend to continue.
The war between NATO and the United States is still accelerating. The United States has stepped up its spending, and the latest $275 million in military aid has been finalized. However, NATO seems dissatisfied with the current war situation and is already gearing up to try. First, they made a fuss about "Ukraine using weapons and equipment provided by NATO to attack targets in Russia", and there were even more voices proposing to expand "NATO's 'air defense umbrella' to Ukraine."
Wang Siyu, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Countries at Shanghai International Studies University, pointed out that Putin said he was “willing to restart negotiations based on reality.” This reality mainly refers to negotiations based on the land and fronts actually controlled by each side. This shows that Russia is currently facing some challenges and difficulties, especially in terms of battlefield logistics and sustainable capabilities. Although the Russian army has currently opened up the Kharkiv battlefield, the progress is very slow and limited. It is very unrealistic for Russia to rely on the current staffing and the scale of heavy weapons to expand its results at a faster speed.
It is worth noting that on the Kharkiv front, Ukraine and the United States do not intend to give up easily. The US media believes that "as Putin reiterates his readiness for peace talks with Ukraine, Russia is achieving success on the front line." Regarding the latest "major package of aid" provided by the Pentagon, the US State Department clearly stated that this batch of aid is the United States' "efforts to help Ukraine repel Russia." part of the offensive in the direction of Kharkov".
Observers have noticed that since Putin took office for a new presidential term, the Russian army has not yet carried out a new round of large-scale recruitment and mobilization. Wang Siyu said that large-scale expansion of professional military personnel is expensive and this is a practical issue that the Russian Ministry of Defense needs to consider. In this context, Russia's signal to restart negotiations is actually not aimed at Ukraine, but a test of the West.
"To calm down the minds of Western countries," the Russian media bluntly pointed the finger at the West for Russia's first tactical nuclear weapons exercise, which was held recently. Wang Siyu said that Russia held this exercise not long before it released the signal for peace talks, mainly to respond strongly to the intervention signals frequently released by the West recently, such as sending troops and using Western weapons against targets in Russia. Generally speaking, Russia is currently adopting a "hard and soft" strategy, using the deterrent pressure of tactical nuclear weapons and the signal of peace talks in order to find a diplomatic focus in the Western camp and improve the United States' release of a new round of additional military aid to Ukraine. Afterwards, the attitude and stance of the entire Western camp became increasingly stronger.
For a long time, due to insufficient assistance, the pressure on the Ukrainian army increased sharply, and the Russian army took more initiative on the battlefield. The sharply deteriorating situation made the West worried. If it doesn't work, you'll get killed yourself - Macron's remarks earlier this year that he would not rule out sending troops once caused controversy and also reflected the different attitudes of the West. However, the view of "not being directly involved in conflicts" has always been considered mainstream in the West.
Faced with the Western pressure, nuclear weapons have become Russia's repeated "warning" card. Putin has made it clear that Russia has never considered using such weapons on the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but nuclear exercises cannot escape Western criticism. Because in the eyes of the West, Russia's first tactical nuclear weapons exercise was too directional. According to foreign media reports, the exercise location is located in the Russian Southern Military District, the command center for the offensive against Ukraine. The headquarters is only 60 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border. The military district also governs the Crimean Peninsula and "four Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia." Wang Siyu believes that demonstrating its level of tactical nuclear weapons does not mean that Russia is prepared to use them in Ukraine. Compared with strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are smaller, more flexible, easier to deploy, more concealed, and more mobile. The general strike platforms are short- and medium-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, land-based, sea-based, and air-based cruise missiles and air-to-air missiles. Based on guided bombs, their explosive yield is smaller, the damage area is more limited, and the flight distance is shorter. They are a product of the miniaturization of nuclear weapons. Whether they are strategic nuclear missiles or tactical nuclear missiles, their significance to modern warfare is the same, and they are all nuclear attacks. After 1945, no country or organization has ever used nuclear weapons. Therefore, the essence of nuclear weapons has not changed. It is still a defensive weapon system for intimidation and deterrence. It is a bargaining chip used for deterrence in gambling and nuclear games, not a real battlefield weapon.
