Will Israel stop? , the pressure is growing, in-depth | Three European countries officially recognize the State of Palestine | Li Weijian | in-depth | Europe

Recently, there have been new developments surrounding the situation between Palestine and Israel.

Norway, Spain and Ireland's decision to recognize the Palestinian state comes into effect today.

It is also reported that Israel will restart negotiations with the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement this week, but Israel’s offensive has not weakened. On the 28th, Israeli army tanks drove into the center of Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza Strip.

At the same time, the risk of conflict spillover has become increasingly prominent - Israeli troops and Egyptian soldiers exchanged fire at the Rafah port on the 27th.

Analysts believe that the Israeli government is facing increasing pressure from the international community. At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu is restrained by different forces in the cabinet.

Against this background, Israel and Hamas have been fighting and negotiating, but have been unable to find a solution to the conflict. Next, potential changes in Israel's political situation may become the key to the situation.

As a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, the Palestinian issue has once again become the focus of public opinion.

Palestinian statehood has been stymied for years, but Palestine has been widely recognized as a state. In 1988, the Palestine Liberation Organization announced the establishment of the Palestinian state, which has been recognized by more than 130 countries. However, Western powers such as the United States, Britain, France, and Germany have not yet officially recognized it.

On the 22nd of this month, Norwegian Prime Minister Steller, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez, and Irish Prime Minister Harris respectively announced their recognition of the Palestinian state. The decision came into effect today. The foreign ministers of the three countries also held a press conference on the 27th to recognize the state of Palestine.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Eide said that Norway is committed to promoting the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and hopes that the decision to recognize the Palestinian state will encourage both Palestine and Israel to restart peace negotiations.

Sanchez said that Spain made this decision only for "peace and justice" and emphasized that the key to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is dialogue between the two sides.

Harris said that this is a decision that clearly supports the "two-state solution" and is the only reliable way for Israel, Palestine and their people to achieve peace and security. Recognizing the Palestinian state will contribute to peace and reconciliation in the Middle East.

According to CCTV reports, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob announced on the 27th that the proposal to recognize the Palestinian state will be submitted to the National Assembly at the government meeting on May 30.

Not long ago, Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, the Bahamas and other countries also announced their recognition of the Palestinian state.

The Palestinian Presidential Palace welcomes the recognition of the Palestinian state by more and more countries and calls on more countries to take responsibility and recognize the Palestinian people's right to self-determination.

On the 22nd, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz announced the recall of Israel’s ambassadors to Norway and Ireland. Katz also issued a statement on the 24th saying that Israel has decided to "cut off" the connection between Israel and the Spanish diplomatic missions in the areas under its control and the Palestinians, and prevent the Spanish consulate in Jerusalem from providing services to the Palestinians in the West Bank.

Looking at Europe, why are Spain, Ireland, and Norway at the forefront of recognizing the state of Palestine this round? Taking into account public opinion, historical factors may play a large role. For example, people in Ireland and Spain have always maintained high levels of support for the Palestinians, and Norway has always enthusiastically supported the "two-state solution" to the Palestinian-Israeli issue.

Li Weijian, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said that the recognition of the Palestinian state by the three European countries this time did not happen overnight.

"These European countries have long paid attention to the Palestinian issue, which is reflected in their past foreign policy stances." Li Weijian said. In the process of promoting Palestinian-Israeli peace, these countries can often be seen.

Li Weijian said that from the perspective of the Palestinian-Israeli situation, this reflects the expansion of the focus from the situation in Gaza to the Palestinian issue. There are growing calls to support Palestine on the international stage, and Palestine's national status is gaining more and more recognition from the international community.

But at the same time, Israel's relations with relevant European countries will inevitably be affected. More accurately, however, it is the relationship between the countries in question and the current Israeli government.

Li Weijian said that the recognition of the Palestinian state by the three European countries reflects that the international community's dissatisfaction with the current Israeli government in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is reaching its limit. As the conflict lasted for more than seven months, the direction of international public opinion changed.

Recently, regarding the situation between Palestine and Israel, Israel has been at odds with Colombia, South Africa and other countries.

In addition, the United Nations International Court of Justice issued "provisional measures" in The Hague, Netherlands, on the 24th, requiring Israel to immediately stop military operations in Rafah, allow United Nations investigators to enter the Gaza Strip, investigate whether Israel has committed "genocide" in the Gaza Strip, and retain relevant evidence .

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell said on the 26th that the International Court of Justice is the "highest level court" of the United Nations and Israel should not ignore the "temporary measures" issued by the court.

A few days ago, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court applied for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galante on suspected war crimes. The German official subsequently stated that "it will act according to the rules." Israel was strongly dissatisfied with this.

Some commentators say that regarding the war in Gaza, the diplomatic pressure faced by Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet has reached an unprecedented level.

Even the United States, which has a "special relationship" with Israel, is changing its attitude. For example, US President Biden said that the United States will not provide weapons for Israel’s attack on Rafah.

Li Weijian said that the United States has long been partial to Israel, and the recognition of the Palestinian state by three European countries highlights the temperature difference between the United States and Europe on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. But from a historical perspective, the current Israeli government’s relations with Europe and the United States may be the worst yet.

"Finally, from a more macro perspective, the recognition of the State of Palestine by the three European countries reflects the color of European strategic independence and the trend of pluralism and multipolarity in global governance." Li Weijian said.

At the same time, Israel sent out a signal of both soft and hard tactics. There have been recent reports that the Israel Defense Forces has reduced its troop presence in Rafah, and that Israel will restart negotiations with Hamas this week.

However, the Israeli offensive did not stop. On the 26th, the Israeli army air raided a refugee camp in the Gaza Strip, killing at least 40 people, including many women, children and the elderly. The scene was very tragic.

Health authorities in the Gaza Strip said the airstrike appeared to be one of the deadliest attacks since the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. So far, more than 36,000 lives have been lost in the Gaza Strip.

The air strike once again sparked international criticism of Israel's military actions.

"There is no safe haven in Gaza, and terrorist acts must stop." United Nations Secretary-General Guterres issued a strong condemnation. According to a United Nations diplomat, the United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the 28th to discuss the air strike.

At first, the Israeli military said it carried out an air strike on a "compound" belonging to Hamas in Rafah on the evening of the 26th. Two senior Hamas members were killed in the air strike. But as details emerged, Israel said it was launching an investigation into civilian casualties.

According to reports, Netanyahu said on the 27th that Israel made a "tragic mistake" in its air strike on Rafah, but that the Israeli army would not end its combat operations in the Gaza Strip until the goal was achieved.

"Israel and Hamas are fighting and talking at the same time, which shows that they have not yet found a solution acceptable to both parties." Li Weijian said. As the conflict lasted for more than seven months, the situation of both sides changed with the changing situation. For example, in the early stages of the conflict, the situation was favorable to Israel. But now, as the conflict reverberates in Israel and the United States, support for the Israeli government has waned both at home and abroad.

In addition, the spillover risks of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict have become increasingly prominent. On the 27th, Israeli soldiers and Egyptian soldiers exchanged fire at the Rafah crossing on the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt, and an Egyptian soldier was killed.

Li Weijian said that as the conflict continues and Egypt is under pressure, it is not surprising that Israel and Egypt have friction. There have been signs before. For example, Egypt and Israel exchanged accusations over whether to open the Rafah crossing in the southern Gaza Strip to allow humanitarian aid to flow in. US media reported on the 14th that Egypt is considering downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel.

Li Weijian also pointed out that the spillover risks of this round of Palestine-Israel conflict are also reflected in the air strikes on the consular building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria, and the conflicts between Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and Israel.

"The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than seven months, but Israel has not yet achieved its goals of releasing detainees and eliminating Hamas," Li Weijian said. If it withdraws from the Gaza Strip now without a clear plan for local post-war governance, it will mean that all previous efforts have been wasted.

Right now, Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet are experiencing internal and external troubles.

Li Weijian pointed out that at home, Netanyahu was restrained by different forces in the war cabinet.

For example, senior officials such as Israeli Defense Minister Galante and war cabinet member Gantz have recently publicly raised objections to Prime Minister Netanyahu's decisions. Gantz even threatened to quit the war cabinet on June 8. If Gantz, who represents the center-left, withdraws from the war cabinet, the Israeli government's policy on the Palestinian issue may move even further "to the right."

Not long ago, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a representative of the far-right hardliners, issued a clear warning that if the government did not fight Hamas to the end, the Jewish Power Party he led would withdraw from the ruling coalition. The party's withdrawal would mean the collapse of Netanyahu's government.

Israeli Finance Minister and leader of the far-right Religious Zionist Party Bezalel Smotrich also recently issued a warning on social media that if Netanyahu dares to call off the attack on Rafah, the party will The government will be overthrown.

In addition, Netanyahu and the war cabinet are also facing public calls for the government to immediately cease fire in the Gaza Strip, reach an agreement with Hamas, and release detainees.

However, Li Weijian predicted that under the background that Israel regards Hamas’s raid on Israel last October as the “9/11” moment, it seems difficult for the current Israeli government to change its course. Next, potential changes in Israel's political situation may become the key to the situation.

From the perspective of the external environment, US-Israel relations are also changing, and US-Israel differences have even become public.

Li Weijian said that in the past, the "special relationship" between the United States and Israel was formed under the specific historical conditions of the Cold War. But now, in the context of a new era such as great power competition, the United States is wooing Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries in the Middle East, and Israel's status in the U.S. diplomatic strategy is on the decline.

"But at the same time, we must also see the Jewish power in the United States." Li Weijian said that the important position of Jews in American politics, finance and other fields has been formed for a long time.