The lower the support rate?, Why is diplomacy getting stronger and deeper | Yoon Seok yeol will visit France and Vietnam | Yoon Seok yeol will visit France and Vietnam|

South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol will visit France and Vietnam from the 19th to the 24th. Analysis suggests that the trip to France is a continuation of Yin Xiyue's previous round of diplomacy with the West, aimed at deepening relations with Western partners based on "value diplomacy". Vietnam, on the other hand, is seen by Yin Xiyue as a core partner country in promoting the "Korean version of the Indo Pacific strategy" and the South Korea ASEAN solidarity initiative. The two visits highlighted Yin Xiyue's dedication to building a "global hub country" and enhancing South Korea's international influence.

However, as Yin Xiyue continued to exert efforts in diplomacy, the support rate in the polls appeared quite low, with a negative rating of about 60% for his administration. Analysts believe that Yoon Seok yeol's serious diplomatic imbalance is causing triple concerns within South Korea. The excessive binding between South Korea and the United States and the West is not only detrimental to South Korea's own interests, but also endangers regional security.

A vision of severe deviation

A year ago, Yoon Seok yeol was elected as the President of South Korea, proposing the slogan of building a "global hub country". One year later, this vision was considered to have serious deviations. The reason for this is that Yin Xiyue's series of actions that deviate from the balanced diplomatic line have repeatedly caused controversy.

In March of this year, under the mediation of the United States, the South Korean government made significant concessions to seek improvement in South Korea Japan relations, and took an unprecedented low stance on historical issues such as the forced labor case. In April, Yin Xiyue visited the United States. Although he has won enthusiastic cheers from Washington by practicing English hard and singing songs, he is seen as "humiliating diplomacy" in the eyes of the opposition party in South Korea. The Washington Declaration, on extending deterrence and increasing the deployment of US strategic assets around the peninsula, has cast a shadow over regional security.

However, in contrast to various criticisms in China, the West treats South Korea with a different perspective. Since the beginning of this year, the Secretary General of NATO, some members of the G7, and EU leaders have all made visits to South Korea.

In January, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg visited South Korea. Yoon Seok yeol stated that South Korea established a representative office in NATO in November last year and looks forward to further expanding cooperation with NATO. Stoltenberg invited Yin Xiyue to attend the NATO summit held in Lithuania in July this year, and Yin Xiyue stated that she will consider attending.

In May, taking Japan's G7 Hiroshima Summit as an opportunity, Yoon Seok yeol welcomed several Western dignitaries who were visiting South Korea on the way in Seoul. Among them, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau attended the Blue House dinner and also had a toast with Yin Xiyue. The German Chancellor visited South Korea after a 13 year hiatus and signed a defense agreement with the South Korean side. Yin Xiyue also received two European leaders who visited South Korea for the first time - President of the European Commission von der Leyen and President of the European Council Michel, and discussed bilateral trade cooperation, assistance to Ukraine and Pyongyang's weapons program.

Therefore, Yin Xiyue's visit to France this time is widely regarded as a continuation of the previous round of Western diplomacy, aimed at deepening relations with Western partners based on his emphasis on "value diplomacy". According to information from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after taking office, Yin Xiyue had his first meeting with the French head of state during last year's NATO Madrid summit. The last time South Korean President visited France was during Moon Jae-in's period in 2018.

According to the official statement from South Korea, the meeting between the leaders of South Korea and France will mean that Yoon Seok yeol will achieve the goal of meeting with the heads of G7 member countries and the European Union in the next two months.

And Yin Xiyue's visit to Vietnam also has a series of profound backgrounds.

Vietnam is the first ASEAN country to be officially visited by Yin Xiyue since taking office. On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations last year, South Korea and Vietnam established a comprehensive strategic partnership. Last December, the President of Vietnam visited South Korea. In May this year, the Vietnamese Prime Minister met with Yoon Seok yeol at the G7 expanded meeting.

South Korean public opinion commented that this visit is seen as a follow-up to the visit of Vietnamese politicians to South Korea. South Korea intends to deepen its contacts with Vietnam and other ASEAN countries as part of its broader Indo Pacific strategy. As the relationship between South Korea and China deteriorates, economic cooperation with Vietnam has become a top priority.

Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Yin Xiyue's commitment to building a "global hub country" highlights South Korea's pursuit of international influence. This goal needs to be achieved through active diplomacy. France is an important European country and a member of NATO, while Vietnam is one of the top countries in ASEAN in terms of population, economy, and influence. In recent years, the development of information and electronic products has been rapid, which meets the needs of South Korea's cooperation. Therefore, Yin Xiyue's visit is first and foremost a visit aimed at friendly countries and committed to enhancing their influence.

On the other hand, it should also be noted that Yin Xiyue has largely linked the achievement of the goal of becoming a "global hub country" with the United States and the West. Because he believes that the security system of the United States and the West is stronger, economic and trade cooperation is more important, and values are more aligned. The deepening of relations with France was carried out in the context of "Western diplomacy first". However, even though Yin Xiyue has achieved such frequent and comprehensive diplomacy with EU and NATO countries, his support rate is still low, indicating that the approach of catering to the US and the West has not received widespread support domestically.

Zhan Debin, Director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, believes that Yin Xiyue's visit to France is still a continuation of ideological diplomacy, which strengthens relations with EU and NATO countries. On the surface, the visit to Vietnam focused on economic cooperation, but in reality, there was also a response to China.

Zhan Debin said that in fact, there were voices in South Korea many years ago advocating for diversifying its trade relations and reducing its dependence on China for trade. During his administration, former President Moon Jae-in put forward the "New South Policy", focusing on Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, to develop new markets to replace China. However, during the administration of Yin Xiyue, the diplomatic offensive against relevant countries increased and it was more in line with the United States strategy.

What topics are focused on?

During the 6-day visit, Yin Xiyue's itinerary can be described as "fulfilling".

At the French station, Yin Xiyue will hold talks with French President Macron and have lunch together. He will also attend a series of activities such as a Korean American symposium in France, a digital blueprint discussion, and a European corporate investment ceremony. In addition, Yin Xiyue will give an English speech at the International Expo Bureau in Paris, seeking support for Busan's bid to host the 2030 World Expo.

Before the visit, Yin Xiyue published an article in the Figaro newspaper, calling for a deeper partnership with France in the diplomatic and economic fields, and hoping to engage in investment cooperation with France in the fields of semiconductors, batteries, and digital economy.

At the Vietnam station, Yin Xiyue will focus on the economy. Vietnam is South Korea's third largest trading partner. According to Yonhap News Agency, as many as 205 members of the business delegation accompanying the visit, including the President of Samsung Electronics and SK Group, have set a record for the most in this government. Four business activities, including the Korea Vietnam Cooperation Expo and the Korean Entrepreneur Lunch in Vietnam, are also being planned.

When discussing the highlights of Yin Xiyue's visit, Zhan Debin pointed out that at the France station, firstly, it is to see whether South Korea's relations with France, the West, and NATO are approaching and there is more strategic cooperation intention. Secondly, in the context of European countries having a stronger sense of energy security and traditional security crisis after the Ukraine crisis, will they strengthen cooperation with South Korea, including nuclear power, semiconductor, and military cooperation. Can South Korea take the opportunity to expand its arms export market to Europe? "Poland was an example before."

Zhan Debin believes that at the Vietnam station, the first step is to observe how the nine key issues in the "Korean version of the Indo Pacific strategy" will be promoted, as well as the implementation path of the South Korea ASEAN solidarity initiative. Secondly, Vietnam has the world's second-largest rare earth mineral deposit. Can South Korea expand cooperation with Vietnam in importing key products and reduce its dependence on the Chinese market. Thirdly, in terms of maritime security, what are the voices and cooperation between the two sides. Fourthly, if South Korea aims to become the world's fourth largest military exporting country in 2027, will it consider ASEAN countries represented by Vietnam as a new growth point for security cooperation.

Wang Junsheng believes that South Korea hopes to establish closer relations with NATO and G7 countries, and can observe France's statement. As the 70th anniversary of the victory in the Korean War approaches, South Korea also hopes to gain more support internationally. At the Vietnam station, one is to focus on whether both parties can cooperate in the field of electronic products. Secondly, Vietnam and North Korea both belong to socialist countries, and Hanoi was once the venue for the second "Kim Special Meeting". South Korea hopes that Vietnam will play a certain role in its relations with North Korea.

Triggering triple concerns

While Yin Xiyue is constantly making efforts in diplomacy, the support rate in polls appears to be quite low. On the 19th, an article by Yonhap News Agency cited the latest poll data, stating that the public's positive rating for President Yoon Seok yeol's governance performance was 38.7%, and the negative rating was 58%. Some South Korean media believe that "humiliating diplomacy" towards Japan and inadequate response to the "surveillance gate" of the United States are the main reasons for Yin Xiyue's poor popularity.

Wang Junsheng believes that Yin Xiyue's goal of becoming a "global hub country" is set too high. Moreover, whether it is his visit to the United States, G7 countries, or NATO dignitaries visiting South Korea, it is more symbolic and has not brought substantial benefits - it has neither strengthened South Korea's military strength nor enhanced its economic strength nor the ability to solve the Korean Peninsula issue, making it difficult to achieve South Korea's ambitions.

In Wang Junsheng's view, Yoon Seok yeol's serious imbalance in diplomacy has caused triple concerns within South Korea.

One concern is that this diplomatic approach will damage the South Korean economy. "The dependence of South Korea's economy on China is about 25%, and relying solely on the United States cannot solve South Korea's economic problems." Wang Junsheng said, "It should be noted that the International Monetary Fund predicts that South Korea's economic growth rate will be 1.5% this year, and people are worried that the cooling of China South Korea relations will worsen South Korea's economy."

The second concern is that this approach will lower South Korea's geopolitical status. "In fact, even the United States and Japan are engaged in dialogue and contact with China. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited China, and the G7 summit communiqu é emphasized" removing risks "rather than" decoupling "from China. In addition, China has successfully mediated the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, demonstrating strong influence. As a result, South Korean people are worried that Yin Xiyue's values diplomacy goes too far and rushes too far, which will put South Korea in an awkward position."

The third concern is that Yin Xiyue's attitude towards Japan relations is not conducive to regional peace, and he believes that he has made a comprehensive compromise on historical issues. "The outside world has noticed that South Korea's recent" National Security Strategy Report "does not mention territorial disputes. In contrast, Japan still advocates disputed island sovereignty in the new version of the" National Security Strategy "," Wang Junsheng said. ".

Zhan Debin said that the United States hopes to use its alliance system to do things within its capabilities in the Asia Pacific region. Ultimately, it is to meet the needs of relevant countries in the region and reduce their needs for China. But it is difficult to achieve the goal because the industrial and supply chains are based on market laws and cost considerations, and do not change at will. And countries in the Asia Pacific region are also unwilling to take sides and hope to maximize their interests through balanced diplomacy.