Rarely not using a high elevation angle, North Korea will shoot a missile several hours later, and South Korean President will supervise South Korea and the United States military exercises near the 38th parallel. North Korea will shoot a missile | South Korea and the United States military exercises

The South Korean military stated that North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the eastern waters of the Korean Peninsula around 7:30 pm on June 15th. This is North Korea's second missile launch after 63 days, which has attracted attention.

Public opinion believes that North Korea's move is mainly aimed at South Korea and the United States launching live fire annihilation exercises with cutting-edge weapons since last month, while demonstrating its military capabilities and readiness.

On the day of the missile launch, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol personally went to the vicinity of the 38th parallel to host the fifth round of training for the exercise and fired harsh words at North Korea from afar.

Abnormal trajectory

"From around 7:25 pm to around 7:37 pm on the same day, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from the Shun'an area towards the eastern waters of the peninsula." The South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters stated on the evening of the 15th that the missiles flew more than 780 kilometers each before crashing into the East China Sea. South Korea and the United States are analyzing specific parameters and evaluating further actions by North Korea.

The Japanese Ministry of Defense confirmed the news of North Korea's missile launch on the same day and provided a set of data parameters. The maximum flight altitude of the missile is about 50 kilometers, and the flight distance is 850 to 900 kilometers. After flying for 11 minutes, two missiles crashed into the sea about 250 kilometers northwest of Sakura Island in Ishikawa Prefecture. The landing point is within Japan's so-called "exclusive economic zone".

According to the Japanese, the trajectory of the missile launched this time is "unconventional".

South Korean defense professionals provide analysis from the perspectives of flight distance, maximum flight altitude, and launch.

From the model, the short-range ballistic missile launched by North Korea this time may be the KN-23 missile known as the North Korean version of the Iskandar.

From a posture perspective, "North Korea launched a missile from a normal angle rather than a high elevation angle. Although it was a short-range missile, it crashed into Japan's exclusive economic zone, increasing the threat," said Shin Chung woo, Secretary General of the South Korean Defense and Security Forum.

Protest military exercises

Foreign media reported that this is North Korea breaking the silence of the past two months and conducting missile tests again after 63 days.

The last time North Korea launched a missile was on April 13th, when it launched the new solid fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, the Mars Cannon-18.

This move is seen as an important milestone in North Korea's missile technology advancement, as missiles propelled by solid fuel are easier to conceal and transport, and have shorter launch preparation times. This makes it more difficult to detect and intercept the Mars Cannon-18 compared to the previously used liquid thrusters such as the Mars Cannon-14, Mars Cannon-15, and Mars Cannon-17.

On the 31st of last month, North Korea attempted to launch a spacecraft carrying a reconnaissance satellite, but the launch was unsuccessful, and the rocket and satellite fell into the sea together. This is also North Korea's first attempt to launch a satellite since 2016.

"The latest missile launch is not to make up for recent failures," foreign media quoted analysts on the 15th as saying that North Korea will try to launch satellites again later. Therefore, the main intention of North Korea's launch this time is to express protest to South Korea and the United States for the "largest scale" live fire exercise, as well as to demonstrate its military capabilities and readiness.

Starting from the 25th of last month, South Korea and the United States have conducted joint and coordinated firepower annihilation training in the city of Bochon, Gyeonggi do, South Korea, not far from the military demarcation line between North and South Korea.

It is said that this is a firepower exercise in which the armies of both countries use the latest weapons to simulate enemy provocations and demonstrate their punishment and annihilation capabilities. It began in June 1977 and has been held 11 times so far.

The difference this year is that, in terms of timing, it coincides with the 70th anniversary of the South Korean US alliance and the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the South Korean military, and the exercise lasted for more than 20 days; In terms of scale, South Korea and the United States called it the "largest live fire exercise in history", with a total of five rounds held before and after, each with 2500 South Korean and American soldiers and about 610 military assets participating, including the latest stealth fighter jets, attack helicopters, tanks, and drones from both countries.

On June 15th, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol went to the training ground to host the fifth and final round of the exercise, watching thousands of South Korean and American soldiers engage in large-scale live fire shooting.

After presiding over the exercise, Yin Xiyue delivered a speech stating that we should not rely on the enemy's goodwill as a false peace, but on our own strength to safeguard the true peace of national security; Only a strong military can guarantee the freedom, peace, and prosperity of South Korea.

As a conservative, Yin Xiyue has been severely criticizing his liberal predecessor Moon Jae-in's policy of engagement with the DPRK.

Just hours after the military exercises between South Korea and the United States ended, a spokesperson for the North Korean Ministry of Defense expressed a solemn stance through the Korean Central News Agency and provided a preview of the launch activity.

The North Korean spokesperson stated that the use of various offensive weapons and equipment by South Korea and the United States to engage in military provocation against North Korea has intensified regional tensions. The North Korean military will respond resolutely to any form of provocation from the enemy, which is inevitable.

About half an hour later, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast.

Falling to freezing point

Coincidentally, while South Korea and the United States are conducting high-profile military exercises and North Korea is firing missiles again, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are frequently engaging in diplomatic, legal, and military activities on various platforms.

At the diplomatic level, senior security officials from the three countries are holding a meeting in Tokyo, Japan, which is not far from each other.

According to a White House statement, on the 15th, White House National Security Advisor Sullivan discussed topics such as maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait, coordinating East and South China Sea affairs, and North Korea's military development plan with Japanese National Security Director Gangnan Akihaba and South Korean National Security Director Cho Tae yong during a meeting. The three parties are engaged in consultations on the next steps to take in response to North Korea.

Foreign media cited a statement from the Japanese government stating that the three officials discussed North Korea's missile program and are preparing to strengthen cooperation to encourage Pyongyang to abandon nuclear weapons.

Shortly after North Korea launched the missile that evening, security officials from the United States, Japan, and South Korea issued a condemnation statement. The statement stated that the United States reaffirmed its commitment to providing joint defense with South Korea and Japan as solid as a rock; The cooperation among the three countries will not be shaken by provocation; The North Korean side should embark on a diplomatic track and abandon constant provocation.

On a legal level, just one day before the missile launch, the South Korean government filed a lawsuit against North Korea on June 14th, demanding compensation of 44.7 billion Korean won for the 2020 bombing of the Liaison Office.

The liaison office was unveiled in September 2018 with funding from South Korea and is located in the Kaesong Industrial Zone near the North Korean border. It is mainly responsible for official liaison, work consultations, and economic cooperation, and was once seen as opening a new chapter in peace on the Korean Peninsula.

But in 2020, as tensions between South Korea and North Korea intensified, North Korea criticized South Korea for failing to prevent political groups from dropping anti North Korean leaflets on its border, and subsequently decided to take countermeasures.

"Given the timing, North Korea's recent launch seems to be expressing dissatisfaction or protest against South Korea's legal action to seek compensation for the dismantling of its Kaesong office," Agence France Presse quoted analysts as saying.

On the military level, on the 16th, the US Navy's USS Michigan cruise missile nuclear submarine docked at the Busan Operations Base in South Korea. This is the second visit of the US cruise missile nuclear submarine to South Korea after 5 years and 8 months, and it is also a follow-up measure to the Washington Declaration issued by South Korean and US leaders in April.

The USS Michigan is one of the largest submarines in the world, measuring 170.6 meters in length and 12.8 meters in width. It has an underwater displacement of 18000 tons and can carry over 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 2500 kilometers. During the visit of the USS Michigan to South Korea, the South Korean and US navies will conduct joint special operations exercises to enhance the ability and interoperability of special operations missions.

The outside world believes that the above series of events release signals.

Firstly, under the mediation of the United States, the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea has become increasingly harmonious.

Secondly, with South Korea filing a lawsuit, the relationship between South Korea and North Korea has reached a freezing point and has come to an end.

Thirdly, South Korea and the United States will further increase their deterrence efforts and issue warnings to North Korea.

Looking ahead to the situation on the peninsula, analysis suggests that the government of Yin Xiyue is unprecedentedly tough on North Korea, and the confrontation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea is intensifying; With the United States playing with fire and delivering strategic assets, the military confrontation between the two sides is no longer limited to conventional weapons; In addition, due to the lack of mutual trust among major powers, the North Korean issue is also related to the Ukraine crisis and competition among major powers... Under a series of factors, the smell of gunpowder on the peninsula has become increasingly strong, and the risk of a nuclear crisis has intensified.