What does it mean for South Africa to move towards a coalition? , the ANC lost its dominant position as a single party, depth | apartheid for the first time in 30 years | Zhou Yuyuan | ANC

According to reports, the preliminary results of the South African general election announced on June 1 showed that the ruling African National Congress is still the largest party in the National Assembly, but its vote rate fell below the 50% red line for independent governance, and it will have to form a cabinet with other parties. .

To the outside world, this seems to be a historic moment for South Africa - since the end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, and South Africa will usher in an era of coalition government for the first time in 30 years.

Standing on a political watershed, where will the "Rainbow Nation" go in the future?

On May 29, South Africa held its seventh general election since the end of apartheid to elect a new National Assembly and provincial assemblies.

This election is regarded as the most fiercely contested election in 30 years. Preliminary results show that the top three political parties with the highest vote share are the African National Congress, the largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, and the National Spear Party.

Although the ANC is still the largest party in parliament, its vote share dropped by about 17 percentage points from the last election and fell below 50%. People in the party were shocked and regarded it as a wake-up call.

Although the opposition parties did not stand up, they cheered the victory and believed that the election had achieved its goal and ended the ANC's one-party dominance.

Compared with the glorious achievements of many previous general elections, the ANC has indeed eclipsed this time.

In 1994, under the leadership of South Africa's late "Father of the Nation" Nelson Mandela, the African National Congress won the first multi-racial election, officially ending the apartheid system.

In the subsequent five National Assembly elections, the ANC won with an absolute advantage.

Since 2004, although the party's vote share has gradually declined, especially the 57.5% vote obtained in the 2019 general election, which is considered the worst in history, it has not fallen below 50% and has been able to continue to govern independently.

"Judging from previous elections, the ANC's support rate has generally shown a downward trend. This election can be said to be a process of quantitative change to qualitative change." said Zhou Yuyuan, deputy director and researcher of the West Asia and African Studies Center of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

The ANC not only lost power in the National Assembly elections, but also lost ground in the provincial parliamentary elections.

In Gauteng, a major economic province, the ANC failed to gain an advantage. Its vote share was slightly more than 36%, which was only about 10 percentage points behind the Democratic Alliance.

At the same time, the ANC lost KwaZulu-Natal, home to South Africa's largest port city of Durban, for the first time in 30 years and was replaced by the emerging party "Spear of the Nation".

Among the nine provinces in the country, the ANC is expected to control the parliamentary majority in five provinces, which is less than the seven provinces expected before the election.

As a long-established political party in South Africa, the African National Congress has been pushed to the center of the political stage by the people for its historical achievements in ending apartheid. It has firmly controlled the parliament and governed the country for 30 years. Why did it stumble in this year's general election?

According to outside analysis, the election results reflect the people's deep disappointment with the current development status of the country under the leadership of the ANC, and they regard this election as a punishment for the ANC.

A South African woman said she had voted for the African National Congress for the past 30 years but chose to support the center-right Democratic Alliance this time because she could not bear the high cost of living and frequent power outages.

"As the ruling party, the African National Congress cannot absolve itself of the blame for South Africa's ongoing political and economic problems." Zhou Yuyuan said.

Economically, South Africa's continued sluggish economic growth, high unemployment, electricity shortages, and ineffective reform of state-owned enterprises have led to public doubts about the ANC's ability to govern the country.

Data show that South Africa’s economic growth rate is less than 1%, more than half of the approximately 62 million people are in poverty, and the unemployment rate is as high as 32%.

Politically, the ANC's complex system makes it difficult to substantively promote anti-corruption and other political reform processes. The image of corruption is one of the main reasons for the ANC's continued decline in support.

Melanie Verwoerd, a former member of the African National Congress, said that long-term rule has also made the ANC widespread arrogance and drifting away from voters.

"More importantly, because of internal struggles and divisions, the overall representativeness of the ANC is also weakening." Zhou Yuyuan said.

From the earlier breakaway Economic Freedom Fighters party to the "National Spear Party" led by former President Zuma after his departure, some votes from the ANC were diverted. In particular, the latter directly eroded the ANC's traditional vote base in KwaZulu-Natal this time, causing it to lose its 30-year dominance.

This time, the "National Spear Party", which was founded less than a year ago, has performed well, surpassing the Economic Freedom Fighters Party and being promoted to the third largest party in parliament. It is regarded as the "dark horse" in the general election and the biggest "winner", highlighting that although Zuma has Corruption scandals plague the country, but political influence remains online.

According to the arrangement, after the official results are announced on June 2, all political parties must form a coalition government within two weeks, after which the new National Assembly will convene to elect a new president.

South Africa's electoral law stipulates that the party that obtains more than half of the votes will become the ruling party and can form a separate government. Although the ANC is still the largest party in parliament, its vote rate has not reached the "standard". If it wants to ensure that it continues to be in power, especially to ensure that the ANC leader and current President Ramaphosa is successfully re-elected, it must join forces with other political parties to form government.

Judging from the vote list, the Democratic Alliance, the "National Spear Party", the Economic Freedom Fighters Party, etc. are all likely to become partners of the ANC.

"Theoretically, there is the possibility of the ANC and the opposition parties joining forces." Zhou Yuyuan said.

The ANC did not give a clear response as to who it would look for as its partner in forming the government.

"We can talk to anyone, anyone," said ANC national chairman and Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Mantashe.

At present, there are conflicts of varying degrees between the ANC and the main opposition parties.

Let’s look at the Democratic Alliance first. The party is considered a center-right party representing wealthy white people and pro-business.

The Democratic Alliance is open to forming a coalition with the ANC.

Zhou Yuyuan said that the elite may believe that from the perspective of national development, the alliance between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance may be a better choice. However, due to obvious differences on major issues such as the Black Empowerment Act and the Universal Health Care Act, the probability of the two joining together is low.

In the view of Guyton McKenzie, leader of the South African Patriotic Union Party, the coalition between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance is "like the marriage of two drunkards in Las Vegas and will never succeed."

Let’s look at the “Spear Party of the Nation” again. The biggest obstacle may be the feud between party leader Zuma and current President Ramaphosa and his African National Congress.

A spokesman for the party said it was willing to negotiate with the ANC, but not with the ANC led by Ramaphosa. The party also said that one of the conditions for reaching a coalition agreement is that Ramaphosa must be removed from his positions as leader of the ANC and president.

Zhou Yuyuan believes that despite the political grievances between Zuma and Ramaphosa, under the operation of party organization and power logic, the probability of compromise and alliance between the two parties is greater than that of the ANC joining forces with the Democratic Alliance.

As for the Economic Freedom Fighters Party, leader Malema also expressed his willingness to discuss the formation of a cabinet with the African National Congress.

However, the party's policies are radical, advocating the nationalization of mines and banks, and the redistribution of land without compensation. At the same time, it was also revealed that the party had proposed a condition for jointly forming a cabinet: Malema's deputy Shivambu must be appointed as finance minister.

Analysts pointed out that South Africa currently urgently needs a stable business and investment environment to retain foreign investment. Whether the Economic Freedom Fighters Party's radical policies are timely needs to be carefully considered by the African National Congress.

In addition, theoretically, the Democratic Alliance and other small parties, the "National Spear Party" and the Economic Freedom Fighters Party can also form a coalition to form a government.

In Zhou Yuyuan's view, given the obvious differences in the political opinions of the three parties, this is an "impossible triangle." The possibility of a coalition of opposition parties forming a government can basically be ruled out. The future new government will still depend on which party or parties the ANC joins forces with.

Some commentators say that South Africa's political landscape has never been so chaotic since the end of apartheid in 1994 and the first multi-racial election.

"The general election is over, but the real game has just begun." Zhou Yuyuan said that the process of the ANC and other political parties jointly forming a cabinet will be very complicated and difficult, which is mainly reflected in the ANC sharing power and the alliance parties seeking power and interests. Sharp contradiction.

This election is regarded as a watershed in South African politics after the end of apartheid, from the ANC's sole power to its future coalition power.

Some commentators believe that South African politics will face major changes and the road ahead will become more complicated.

"What does this mean for our future?" some South African media asked.

Zhou Yuyuan believes that the 2024 general election marks that South Africa will enter a new political ecology.

First of all, for the ANC, losing its status as the dominant party is a heavy blow.

"Whether it is forming a coalition government in the near future or regrouping in the future to regain its dominant position, the ANC is facing severe challenges." Zhou Yuyuan said that the "loss" in the general election should prompt the ANC to resolve to reform to improve its decision-making and execution capabilities. However, it is still unknown whether the experience and lessons can be truly summed up and the support rate bottoms out.

Secondly, coalition governance will bring a new test to South Africa's domestic politics and national governance.

Zhou Yuyuan said it is still unclear whether the coalition government form is temporary or will become the norm. However, coalition governance and power sharing may complicate South Africa's political ecology, thereby making South Africa's economic and social development prospects face uncertainty.

For example, conflicts between political parties may further intensify, and different positions and opinions will be projected onto national policies and implementation.

However, overall, the main issue of the coalition is domestic politics, and its impact on foreign policy is relatively limited. There is a high probability that South Africa will not change its stance and propositions on independent diplomacy, regional diplomacy and international multilateral diplomacy.