Depth | Erdogan's visit to Russia and Putin's meeting: Can it bring a turning point for the Black Sea port's agricultural product export agreement? Erdogan | Russia | Shipping Abroad
In the eyes of the outside world, Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan started his visit to Russia on September 4, and held talks with Russian President Putin in Sochi, Russia, to discuss energy, trade, economy and other issues. At a time when the Black Sea port agricultural export agreement is facing a freeze crisis, discussing a new plan for the agreement is also a highlight of Erdogan's visit. After more than a year, Erdogan met with Putin again in the Black Sea coastal city of Sochi. What are your considerations? Can his visit bring a turning point for the agricultural product export agreement?
Visit the "highlights"
Visit the "highlights"
However, unlike in previous years, with the stagnation of the Black Sea port agricultural export agreement, the future of the agreement has become one of the most anticipated topics in this meeting.
On September 4th local time, Erdogan and Putin met again in the famous coastal city of Sochi in Russia. Meeting in Sochi has become a long-standing tradition among the leaders of Turkey and Russia. In early August last year, the two sides also met in Sochi.
According to the foreign ministers of both countries at the time, they had exchanged views on the agreement for the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea port. Türkiye hopes that this agreement can be revived and has prepared a series of new packages for the "resurrection" agreement.
However, unlike in previous years, with the stagnation of the Black Sea port agricultural export agreement, the future of the agreement has become one of the most anticipated topics in this meeting.
On July 22, 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed relevant agreements with Türkiye and the United Nations on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports. The agreement is valid for 120 days. The validity period of this agreement was extended in November last year, March and May this year.
Before Erdogan left for Russia, Türkiye's Foreign Minister Fidan had visited Russia on August 31 to talk with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and others, paving the way for Erdogan's visit.
Analysts believe that the new plan to discuss the agreement, which was previously laid out, is the "highlight" of Erdogan's visit.
According to the foreign ministers of both countries at the time, they had exchanged views on the agreement for the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea port. Türkiye hopes that this agreement can be revived and has prepared a series of new packages for the "resurrection" agreement.
However, regarding the alternative plan proposed by Turkey and Russia earlier, Zhang Hong believes that the amount of grain involved in this plan is limited, and it is meaningful as a temporary measure, but it cannot be a substitute for the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports.
Lavrov said that the two sides exchanged views on the implementation of the relevant initiative of Russian President Putin, that is, Russia supplies 1 million tons of grain to Türkiye at preferential prices, Qatar provides financial support, enterprises in Türkiye process and provide it to countries in need. Both parties consider this initiative as an alternative to the agreement.
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Studies University and Vice President of the China Middle East Society, also believes that Erdogan's visit is expected to "negotiate" with the Russian side regarding the relevant agreement. Türkiye regards the agreement as an important result of mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The agreement not only concerns the vital interests of Russia and Ukraine, two major food producing countries, but also involves global food security issues. Therefore, it has been able to operate before and achieved practical results. Next, Turkey and Russia are expected to still hope to achieve a win-win situation through the "diplomatic card" of the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Export Agreement.
On July 22, 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed relevant agreements with Türkiye and the United Nations on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports. The agreement is valid for 120 days. The validity period of this agreement was extended in November last year, March and May this year.
With regard to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, Türkiye has previously expressed its intention to continue to play a mediation and mediation role between Russia and Ukraine.
However, after the agreement was signed, the Russian side has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction, believing that the agreement on the normalization of Russian grain and fertilizer exports has not been fulfilled. On July 17th this year, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the implementation of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports has been blatantly disrupted, and continuing to implement it is "meaningless". The Russian side will no longer extend the agreement.
In terms of economy and security, Turkey and Russia also have mutual needs. Liu Zhongmin pointed out that in addition to the food issue, Turkey and Russia hope to strengthen cooperation in areas such as economy and trade, investment, tourism, and real estate. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, how to maintain the security of the Black Sea and avoid the spillover of the conflict are also the focus of discussions between the two sides.
Analysts believe that the new plan to discuss the agreement, which was previously laid out, is the "highlight" of Erdogan's visit.
What are Erdogan's considerations
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that at present Türkiye is trying to salvage the agreement. After Türkiye and the United Nations have proposed a series of new packages, it is expected that Turkey and Russia will focus on the discussion on saving the old agreement or signing a new agreement.
Since winning the general election in Türkiye in May, Erdogan has also continued to play his "long sleeve" skill and entered a busy diplomatic rhythm.
However, regarding the alternative plan proposed by Turkey and Russia earlier, Zhang Hong believes that the amount of grain involved in this plan is limited, and it is meaningful as a temporary measure, but it cannot be a substitute for the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports.
What are Erdogan's considerations for choosing Russia for his first visit in September?
Zhang Hong pointed out that African countries need to purchase at least 18 to 25 million tons of food annually to make up for the food shortage problem, while 1 million tons obviously cannot solve the core problem. Secondly, Türkiye's annual wheat processing capacity is about 6 million tons, while Russia's annual wheat export is about 40 million tons, which is also a big gap.
Recently, Türkiye loosely agreed to submit the protocol of Sweden's accession to NATO to its own parliament for approval, and also handed over the leader of the "Yasu Camp" to Ukraine, which was considered by western public opinion to be inclined to the West. But in fact, keeping a balance between the West and Russia is Türkiye's main strategic consideration. Erdogan's trip will seek understanding from the Russian side to avoid problems in Turkey Russia relations when improving relations with the West.
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Studies University and Vice President of the China Middle East Society, also believes that Erdogan's visit is expected to "negotiate" with the Russian side regarding the relevant agreement. Türkiye regards the agreement as an important result of mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The agreement not only concerns the vital interests of Russia and Ukraine, two major food producing countries, but also involves global food security issues. Therefore, it has been able to operate before and achieved practical results. Next, Turkey and Russia are expected to still hope to achieve a win-win situation through the "diplomatic card" of the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Export Agreement.
Liu Zhongmin said that Türkiye, which has just ended the general election and is about to usher in the centennial of its founding in October, is in a critical period. Erdogan hopes to seek stability in domestic and foreign affairs at this time. Recently, Erdogan has made frequent visits, not only to improve relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel and other regional countries, but also to visit Russia, and will attend important international summits. In addition to seeking financial support in the post earthquake reconstruction period, he also intends to promote Türkiye's foreign exchange vision to the world.
In addition to the agreement, analysts point out that the situation between Russia and Ukraine and bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia are also key issues of concern for both sides.
First, the agreement is of great diplomatic significance to Türkiye. Erdogan referred to the agreement as a "diplomatic achievement that can be recorded in history," and if it fails, it will weaken Turkey's regional and global influence.
With regard to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, Türkiye has previously expressed its intention to continue to play a mediation and mediation role between Russia and Ukraine.
Thirdly, if the agreement on the export of agricultural products cannot be continued, Russia and Ukraine may intercept each other's commercial ships heading towards each other's ports, greatly deteriorating the security environment in the Black Sea region.
At the energy level, the two sides may deepen key projects of bilateral practical cooperation and exchange views on the cooperative construction of the "Akuyu" nuclear power plant, Russia's supply of natural gas to Europe through the "Türkiye Creek" pipeline, and the construction of natural gas hubs in Turkey.
Is Russia also interested in wooing Erdogan's visit?
In terms of economy and security, Turkey and Russia also have mutual needs. Liu Zhongmin pointed out that in addition to the food issue, Turkey and Russia hope to strengthen cooperation in areas such as economy and trade, investment, tourism, and real estate. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, how to maintain the security of the Black Sea and avoid the spillover of the conflict are also the focus of discussions between the two sides.
Liu Zhongmin pointed out that after Erdogan's visit to Russia, Russian President Putin may also visit Türkiye. Both sides may use each other strategically and leverage each other to play a diplomatic card.
On regional issues, the Syrian issue is a common focus of concern for Turkey and Russia. In May of this year, the Arab League resumed Syria's membership, and Syria's relations with the Arab world gradually thawed. Zhang Hong said that Türkiye also faces the possibility of repairing relations with Syria, and has some space for cooperation and dialogue with Russia on the Kurdish issue in Syria.
The outside world has noticed that after the suspension of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea port in July, the Russian side did not give the agreement a dead end. The Russian side has repeatedly emphasized that once the content related to the Russian side in the agreement is implemented, it will immediately resume the implementation of the agreement.
What are Erdogan's considerations
Liu Zhongmin believes that there may be two possibilities for the future of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea Port. Ideally, Russia and Ukraine will fight back, but they can still reach an agreement with both sides under the mediation of Türkiye and other parties. However, if the differences between Russia and Ukraine are large, the parties may have to seek alternative solutions, such as forming partial arrangements between Russia, Türkiye and the third party first, and then seeking an agreement with Ukraine.
Since the Ukrainian crisis, Türkiye has been active in international and regional hot issues. Türkiye is indispensable in mediating the crisis in Ukraine, influencing Sweden and Finland's "accession" to the Treaty, and facilitating the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports.
Zhang Hong believes that both Turkey and Russia currently have a need to restore the agreement. Türkiye faces challenges in diplomacy, security and economy. If Russia firmly refuses to compromise, it may face diplomatic pressure from impoverished and food scarce countries in Africa and other regions.
Since winning the general election in Türkiye in May, Erdogan has also continued to play his "long sleeve" skill and entered a busy diplomatic rhythm.
Therefore, at present, there is still a possibility of compromise among all parties and the resumption of the agreement. However, Zhang Hong is not optimistic about the short-term turnaround of the agreement: "Erdogan's visit may be difficult to reverse the current diplomatic deadlock.".
