Is Argentine Trump Expected to Become President?, The results of the general election primaries have been announced: "Argentine Trump" | General election primaries | Argentina
Argentina will welcome a quadrennial general election in October. On the 13th local time, Argentina held a preliminary election with wind vane significance. Preliminary results show that against the backdrop of a sluggish local economy and high inflation, Javier Milley from the right-wing camp has become the dark horse, while the other two mainstream political factions have performed poorly. At present, Mile, who is regarded as the "Argentine Trump", may become president, which has attracted attention from all parties.
Kill the dark horse
As the new general election approaches, Argentina holds its primary elections on the 13th. Out of approximately 46 million people nationwide, up to 35.4 million are eligible to vote. Presidential candidates with a vote share of over 1.5% in the primary election will receive admission tickets. In Argentina, primary elections often serve as a barometer of public opinion and a barometer of election prospects.
The voting ended at 6pm local time on the 13th. But there are reports that some voting processes in the capital Buenos Aires have been delayed due to malfunctions in the newly put into use electronic voting machines.
At present, the vote counting work has been basically completed. Preliminary results show that the voter turnout in this primary election is lower than the previous level of around 70%, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm among voters.
The presidential candidates are mainly divided into three camps. Javier Mille, from the right-wing political party "Free Progress," performed far better than expected, with a vote share of 31.57%, ranking first. It is expected that Mille will be the only candidate of the party to compete for the presidency.
The "Alliance for Change", also belonging to the right-wing camp and composed of the opposition party, received 29.72% of the vote, ranking second. This pro business camp is led by former Security Minister Patricia Bridges and Buenos Aires Mayor Olacio Laretta. Bridge is seen as a hardline conservative, while Laretta is seen as a moderate. In order to secure the presidential nomination within the alliance, the two face competition, with Bridge leading the way by about 6 percentage points in terms of votes.
The center left camp "Unity for the Motherland" received 28.66% of the vote, ranking third. This camp is led by the current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa. Within the alliance, Massa faces a competition from labor activist Juan Grabois for the presidential nomination. However, Massa's vote share is significantly ahead of Grabois.
Psychology of seeking change
After four years, the results of Argentina's general election primaries have once again come as a surprise. Previously, public opinion predicted that competition would mainly take place between the two mainstream political factions - the "Alliance for Change" and "Unity for the Motherland", with Millet receiving less than one-fifth of the votes.
Milley, a 52 year old economist, is currently a member of Congress. Milley has a somewhat impatient temper, messy hairstyle, often wears leather jackets, and loudly sings rock songs to his supporters... In addition to being an outsider, Milley's alternative image is also not favored.
In recent years, Millay has become known for his aggressive image on television programs and social networks. Similar to former US President Trump, Millet also wants to eliminate "thieves" in the political field.
As a presidential candidate, Milley's proposals seem as unconventional as his image, including proposing to replace a struggling domestic currency with the US dollar, "burning" poorly managed central banks, supporting gun ownership, opposing abortion rights, etc. He is also labeled as liberal and far right.
However, Milley's anti establishment remarks still attract some voters, especially young people. Mile's campaign also received support from former Brazilian President Bosonaro, known as the "Brazilian Trump".
The latest preliminary results have overturned public expectations. Miley's running mate and vice presidential candidate, Victoria Villarul, called it "an incredible moment in history.".
The public opinion believes that dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties and the desire for change among voters have led to this primary election result.
Argentina is a country with strong comprehensive national strength in Latin America, and its economic output ranked among the top ten in the world at the beginning of the 20th century. However, in recent years, due to factors such as the international economic and financial situation, the growth rate of the Argentine economy has significantly slowed down, with high inflation and depreciation of the local currency
The National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina released a report in April stating that the cumulative inflation rate in Argentina over the past 12 months has reached 104.3%. At the same time, the economic crisis is tearing apart the social structure of this country.
According to Agence France Presse, Juan Negri, a political science professor at the University of Torkuto Dietria in Argentina, said, "Argentina's economic downturn has been ongoing for over a decade, and this crisis is slowly worsening."
"I think it's time for a new person: Milley. I like him because he expresses the thoughts of all of us," said Carlos Reyes, a 66 year old electrician.
In this context, the current President Fernandez, who belongs to the center left camp, announced in April that he will not participate in the October elections and will not seek re-election. Fernandes said at the time that during his administration, Argentina suffered from the COVID-19 epidemic, severe drought and other impacts, and the economic situation deteriorated. During the remaining period of his administration, he would do his best to solve the problems faced by the Argentine people, and called on voters to support the candidates promoted by the governing coalition.
The challenge is arduous
At present, the prospect of Mile continuing its strong momentum in the October election has attracted attention from all parties.
"If we can make it to the final election, we will win," Milley said in an interview with Bloomberg in March this year. "It doesn't matter who the opponent is."
It is reported that in order to win the general election, candidates must receive more than 45% of the votes, or receive 40% of the votes and lead the second place by 10 percentage points. If no candidate achieves either of these situations, Argentina will hold a final election in November.
However, whoever wins the presidency of Argentina must take swift action to curb inflation while addressing concerns about public safety and worsening economic recession.
Miley's alternative economic reform proposals may lead to financial chaos. Some analysts also say that a lack of support from Congress may become an obstacle for Milley's reform efforts.
For Argentina's economic recovery, support from the International Monetary Fund is also crucial. In March 2022, the Afghan government reached an agreement with the IMF to repay $45 billion in debt.
At the international level, potential political changes in Argentina are also expected to have a certain impact. Reuters reported that if Mile is elected as the President of Argentina, it may shake regional politics. Currently, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile are all governed by left-wing leaders.
At the international economic and trade level, Argentina is one of the world's largest exporters of soybeans, corn, and beef. In the current global food crisis, Argentina's agricultural and export policies are receiving attention.
Maria Medina, a 47 year old teacher, said that after years of economic downturn, she has lost some confidence in her commitment to political change. "But we can't lose all hope, can we?"
