Former UK Prime Minister Johnson's resignation as a Member of Parliament triggers a chain reaction... Chain reaction | Resigning Member of Parliament | Former UK Prime Minister Johnson

Under the shadow of the "gathering door" scandal, former British Prime Minister Johnson announced on the 9th that he has resigned from his position as a member of the House of Commons. Shortly thereafter, two other Conservative MPs decided to follow in Johnson's footsteps. This means that the Conservative Party is now facing a by election for three parliamentary seats. While the opposition is eyeing, this farce has become the latest challenge facing Prime Minister Sunak.

Successive resignations

Johnson stated in his resignation statement that this decision is related to the investigation surrounding the "Party Gate" scandal. "Party gate" refers to the scandals of the British Prime Minister's Office and other government offices meeting in violation of epidemic prevention regulations for many times during the COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021, which is one of the reasons why Johnson was forced to resign as Prime Minister last July.

After the scandal was exposed, Johnson denied any violations and mistakenly believed it was a work activity at the time. The House of Commons Privileges Committee began investigating whether Johnson had lied to Congress about the "gathering door" since last year, and announced in March this year that it had received the materials delivered by Johnson. In these materials, Johnson admitted to misleading the parliament, but denied any intentional actions.

According to British media, the Privileges Committee has the authority to recommend Johnson to suspend his parliamentary duties, and a suspension of more than 10 days may trigger a by election in his constituency.

However, Johnson announced his resignation before the privileged committee could announce it. He said that the privileged committee failed to prove that it was intentional to mislead the parliament, but was determined to take action to expel him from the parliament. Some comments suggest that this statement is reminiscent of former US President Trump on the other side of the Atlantic.

Shortly thereafter, former Minister of Culture Nadine Doris and former Minister of State for Asia Pacific Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Nigel Adams decided to follow in Johnson's footsteps. This means that the Conservative Party is now facing a by election for three parliamentary seats, which is expected to be held before the summer vacation.

It is reported that Johnson is also dissatisfied with another matter, which is who can receive a commendation for his important contributions during his tenure as Prime Minister. There are reports that Johnson attempted to use this opportunity to bring his three parliamentary allies, including Doris and Adams, into the upper house of parliament and received assurance from Sunak. But the fact shows that Johnson did not achieve his goal, and Sunak denied making any related commitments and stated that the list would be reviewed by an independent committee in the upper house of parliament.

Is there a resurgence of "palace fights"?

Since taking office as Prime Minister in October last year, Sunak seems to have temporarily put an end to the ongoing turmoil in British politics, but the latest scene has awakened people's memories of the "palace fights" in British politics.

After all, Sunak was once one of Johnson's "right-hand men", and his resignation in July last year was seen as one of the "triggers" for Johnson's resignation. Therefore, some comments suggest that these three by elections are like the mines planted by Johnson in the Sunak administration, and Johnson may not sympathize with Sunak at the moment.

However, various signs indicate that this does not seem to be a rebellion initiated by Johnson. One reason is that Johnson reacted excitedly upon learning of the preliminary investigation results of the Privileges Committee, rather than acting. Secondly, there are currently no more legislators following Johnson's resignation, and the chaos within the Conservative Party is temporarily under control.

Johnson's former spokesperson Guto Harry said, "I don't think this is part of a carefully planned conspiracy aimed at shaking and overthrowing Sunak."

At the same time, Senior Cabinet Secretary Grant Sharps denied any bias towards the Privileges Committee and claims that Johnson was driven away by the "pro establishment camp.". He said that in the privilege committee composed of seven people, the Conservative Party holds the majority.

Currently, the three by elections and Johnson's political fate are receiving more public attention. Against multiple backgrounds, these three by elections are seen as the first major test faced by Sunak since taking office.

Firstly, the Conservative Party has performed poorly in constituencies such as Tiverton in recent years, losing several seats. Secondly, the current economic situation in the UK still needs improvement, and the support rate of the Conservative Party is not stable, even leading the Labour Party by 15 percentage points in polls. In addition, the UK may welcome an election next autumn, and Sunak certainly does not want to see chaos within the party, even overshadowed by the opposition party.

However, the Labour Party has seen an opportunity. Labour MP Pat McFadden said that these three by elections will prove that the Labour Party is not in a desperate situation, "we will compete for victory."

Currently, Labour candidate Danny Beers has targeted Johnson's previous seat in the Axbridge constituency. According to British media, given that the Conservative Party's advantage in the local area is not obvious, this is a goal that the Labour Party is more likely to achieve.

In contrast, Adams and Doris have a stronger support base in the Selby and Middle Bedfordshire constituencies, and the opposition party will face certain challenges. In addition, the Liberal Democratic Party may also participate in the race for seats in the Central Bedfordshire constituency.

Can we make a comeback?

As for Johnson's political fate, it has attracted attention whether he will easily give up his tumultuous career as a congressman for over 20 years.

On the one hand, Johnson's position in Westminster has declined. One example is that in March of this year, Johnson's attempt to undermine the Northern Ireland agreement signed by Sunak did not cause too much uproar in parliament.

"He has withdrawn from the current political stage," Sharps said.

Congressman Tim Lawton also believes that it is time for Johnson to "keep quiet and let adults in the government continue their work.".

On the other hand, Johnson still has some influence within the party, after all, he led the UK to Brexit and led the Conservative Party to a major victory in the 2019 election.

Congressman Mark Jenkinson felt "very sad" about the "political giant" being forced to leave the lower house of parliament and accused it of being a "political persecution".

But according to local media reports, only a few Conservative lawmakers are currently lamenting that Johnson's political career may come to an end. Former Cabinet Secretary Jacob Reese Mog believed that Johnson still had the potential to make a comeback. Reese Mogg was one of the commended members of the Johnson administration.

Johnson himself also hinted during his resignation that this was only a "temporary" decision, leaving a considerable suspense. Some comments suggest that if Johnson is re elected as a member of the House of Commons in the next election, he will follow in the footsteps of his idol Winston Churchill, who frequently changes seats in parliament.