To build a new alliance for the Thai Party by abandoning old friends, depth | Thailand's new government's "difficult to produce" prime minister candidate | Far Progressive Party | For the Thai Party | Thailand

Thailand was originally scheduled to hold a new round of voting on the Prime Minister candidate on August 4th, but due to the Constitutional Court's need to rule on the second round of the Far Progressive Party candidate Pita's candidacy for Prime Minister, the parliament announced a postponement of the vote. The specific date is yet to be determined.

This news adds a new footnote to the "difficult production" of the new Thai government. Previously, after his path to the position of Prime Minister was blocked, the leadership of the cabinet was handed over to the Thai party, which also belongs to the Eight Party Alliance. However, on the eve of the vote, the Thai party announced a breakup with the Far Progressive Party and instead formed a new political alliance, intending to nominate real estate tycoon Saita as the candidate for prime minister.

This operation means that the Far Progressive Party, the largest party in the House of Commons, will not come to power, but will become an opposition party. At the same time, the Thai party stated that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by the military government and exiled overseas, plans to return to Thailand on August 10th, which has attracted widespread attention from the outside world.

Why did the Thai party cut ties with the Far Progressive Party?What direction will Thailand's political situation take?

"Breakup" and "Marriage Alliance"

The Thai parliament originally planned to hold a joint meeting on August 4th to elect the successor to Prime Minister Prayut for the third time. But a pending ruling by the Constitutional Court postponed the vote.

It is reported that the Constitutional Court has decided to postpone the review of the case submitted by the National Assembly Ombudsperson regarding whether the second nomination of the Pita campaign is a duplicate motion and whether it is unconstitutional.

Reuters reported that this means the ongoing political stalemate in Thailand since the May elections will be extended.

On May 14th, Thailand held elections for the lower house of parliament, with the Far Progressive Party led by Bhutta winning the top spot and winning 151 seats. The Thai party won 141 seats, ranking second. The Far Progressive Party subsequently convinced the Thai Party and six other small parties to form an eight party alliance and jointly elect Pita as the candidate for prime minister.

According to the constitution, Pita needs to receive more than half of the support votes from 750 members of both houses. However, the majority of the 250 members of the House of Lords are conservatives appointed by the military. The radical proposals of the Far Progressive Party on amending the "Offensive to the Monarchy Law" have offended the conservatives. Therefore, in the first vote on July 13th, Pita lost with 324 votes.

On July 19th, during the second vote, the parliament simply rejected Pita's candidacy for prime minister, citing that the majority of lawmakers believed that his repeated nomination violated relevant regulations. In view of the obstruction in his path to be elected as Prime Minister, the Far Progressive Party immediately announced that it would transfer the leadership to form a cabinet to the Thai Party.

In order to successfully form a cabinet, the primary choice faced by the Thai party is whether to maintain an alliance with the Far Progressive Party. Earlier, public opinion believed that bundling the Thai Party with the Far Progressive Party would be detrimental to gaining support in the upper house, and the eight party alliance was almost certain to break down. As expected, the Thai party ultimately gained the upper hand with "realism" and cut ties with its former allies.

When explaining the reason for the breakup, the Thai party stated that other parties and members of the military camp cannot accept the Far Progressive Party's proposal to amend the "Offensive to the Monarchy Law". However, the Far Progressive Party believes that this is just an excuse and that the old forces do not want to see a government led by the Far Progressive Party. 100 supporters of the Far Progressive Party gathered near the Thai Party headquarters to protest against the betrayal of their old friends.

"I thought we were married. But today it feels like we're divorced," said Far Progressive Party lawmaker Rohm é when referring to "abandoning friends" for the Thai party.

While announcing a breakup with an old friend, he also sought a marriage alliance with a new partner for the Thai party and nominated real estate tycoon Saita as his candidate for prime minister.

The new list of party alliances will be announced as the new round of voting approaches. The Bangkok Post revealed that the Thai party is interested in forming a ten party alliance, including four former members of the eight party alliance and five new partners, including the National Power Party of Thai Deputy Prime Minister Bawi, the Pride Thai Party, which has 71 seats in the lower house and is known as the "king maker", as well as the Democratic Party, among others.

The newspaper also revealed that the distribution of benefits between the Thai party and its new partners after the agreement is reached will ensure that the National Power Party and the Democratic Party receive 5 and 3 cabinet positions respectively. Bawei may not enter the new government, but his younger brother and former head of the national police, Bacarava, is expected to join the cabinet.

Deadlock and Breakthrough

Regarding the operation of the Thai Party, Professor Song Qingrun from the Asia Research Department of the School of Asia at Beijing Foreign Studies University believes that it is beneficial for the Thai Party to gain support from different forces and break the political deadlock.

Song Qingrun said that even if Pita is not stripped of his candidacy, it will be difficult for him to win the position of Prime Minister because opposition from the House of Lords to his radical proposals has always been a hurdle. And as long as the power represented by Pita remains in the party alliance, the political deadlock cannot be broken. This will dampen foreign investment confidence and is very detrimental to Thailand.

Therefore, seeking to form a new political party alliance for the Thai party, on the one hand, is to establish a basic consensus with all parties to maintain the monarchy and not touch on the most sensitive issue of amending the "offending monarchy law". On the other hand, it will try to attract some conservative forces and supporters of the military to highlight the diversity of the alliance and reflect the interests and demands of different social classes.

Song Qingrun judged that compared to the defeated Pita, the candidate for the Thai party may be more likely to gain support from both the upper and lower houses. If nothing unexpected happens, the power transfer process is expected to continue to advance.

Zhou Shixin, Deputy Researcher at the Asia Pacific Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, stated that the selection of Saita as the Prime Minister candidate for the Thai Party is based on the consideration of "stability first".

Seta was born in 1963, and his father was a soldier. In 1986, he graduated from the United States and first worked at Procter&Gamble before joining the Thai real estate giant Shangsi Rui Group, becoming the head of the company all the way. Seta's life trajectory has always been accompanied by the Shinawatra family, and last year he began serving as an advisor to his daughter, Bedongdan.

Some media outlets have pointed out that the Thai party has elected the popular Prime Minister candidate, Betongdan, in this election. But the public opinion believes that Beidongdan's kinship with Thaksin is hindering her from gaining support from the anti Thaksin camp, and Seta, as a "new face in politics," is more favored.

Zhou Shixin believes that first of all, Beidongdan, who is born in 1985, still has limited experience, while the mature Seta gives people the impression of being senior and stable. Secondly, Seta's business background may be more favored by the Thai business community.

"For Thailand, there is now an emphasis on the word 'stability' - the Thai party hopes to firmly control national power, the military and conservative forces hope to avoid disruptive political changes, and the people hope for a smooth political transition and stable economic development." Zhou Shixin said, "Based on these reasons, the outside world will more agree with the candidate Saita."

Zhou Shixin also pointed out that if Saita cannot be elected, the Thai party may recommend other candidates such as Beidongdan to "pass the test". But the situation faced by the second and third candidates will be even more severe. If Saita fails to hit, Thailand may inevitably face an election marathon.

Return and Declaration

Amidst the ongoing tug of war in the Thai political situation, a new news has also drawn attention from the outside world.

On July 26th, Beidongdan announced on social media that his exiled father, Thaksin Shinawatra, will return to China on August 10th. According to Thaksin himself, he will go home to visit his grandchildren and is willing to face legal charges, even symbolic imprisonment.

In 2006, the Thaksin administration was overthrown by a military coup. Afterwards, the former prime minister who founded the predecessor of the Thai Party, the Thai Love Thai Party, began living in exile overseas. External speculation suggests that Thaksin's return may exacerbate political tensions in Thailand.

The Asia Pacific affairs research website "East Asia Forum" believes that Thaksin remains a powerful force in Thai politics. Forming a coalition government for the Thai and Conservative parties would be a historic political transformation. The article points out that ironically, conservatives now need Thaksin, as they are clearly willing to deal with their former enemies to deal with the more troublesome and radical Far Progressive Party.

Zhou Shixin believes that the release of "Thaksin Shinawatra's upcoming return to China" by Beidongdan may indicate that the Thai party has confidence in allowing candidates to sit on the Prime Minister's throne, conveying a message of a clear victory.

Zhou Shixin said that Thaksin has a certain voice and influence within the Thai party, and many of the party's senior officials are his former subordinates. However, with the passage of time, although Thaksin's prestige still exists, his real power may not still exist. "If he comes back, it may be a stronger declaration, indicating that Thailand's democratic politics have entered a new stage."

Tasks and Challenges

Two analysts believe that regardless of who is successfully elected as prime minister, the challenges facing the ruling coalition should not be underestimated.

Song Qingrun believes that economic difficulties are the first to bear the brunt.

The Kaitai Research Center in Thailand recently released its economic outlook for the second half of 2023, stating that Thailand's economic recovery is facing challenges such as drought, household debt issues, and political changes. Especially in Thailand, household debt is expected to peak in 2024.

On the other hand, the new Thai government's difficulties in production have also put pressure on Thai enterprises and foreign investment confidence, thereby weakening overall economic activity.

In terms of politics, bridging differences is a major challenge.

If the candidate for the Thai party takes office, the Far Progressive Party will become the main opposition party. Supporters of the Far Progressive Party, dressed in orange shirts, have already taken to the streets due to Pita's defeat and the "betrayal" of the Thai party. It remains to be seen whether this force will interfere with the agenda of the ruling coalition or even erupt into an "orange wave" in the future.

Zhou Shixin believes that if the candidate for the Thai party is to secure a victory, the Far Progressive Party may exert resistance on issues such as future government budgets in terms of domestic affairs. In terms of diplomacy, new authorities tend to continue established foreign policies and implement balanced diplomacy.

In Zhou Shixin's view, the friendly relationship between China and Thailand as one family will continue. In terms of US Thailand relations, the United States previously had a low favorability towards the pro military Palestinian movement. If a candidate is elected by the Thai party to govern, it may further woo in terms of security cooperation, which needs to be noted.