Is the US election at a turning point again?, Hot topic preview | "An important night" is coming
The first live televised debate of the 2024 US presidential election will be held on the 27th. President Biden and Republican presidential candidate Trump are gearing up for this "head-on confrontation". Why did this year's debate not follow past practice and be held several months in advance? What will be worth paying attention to on the scene?
Perhaps because the US presidential primary election was too dull and there was little suspense, the two party candidates, Biden and Trump, who entered the game first, can't wait to start their first head-to-head confrontation. As a traditional program of the US presidential election, the first presidential debate, which will be held in three days, is very eye-catching and has attracted great attention from all walks of life. This year, for the first time, this debate was not organized by the traditional organizer, the bipartisan presidential debate commission, but by the media CNN, which started to organize it several months in advance.
This operation is well-intentioned for Biden, the initiator of the debate. First of all, Biden was dissatisfied with the way CPD organized the 2020 election debate, criticizing it for only creating a "big scene" rather than a "good debate", with the subtext that he did not benefit from the CPD's debate activities. At the same time, Biden's team also took into account the issue of votes, believing that the debate hosted by CPD was too late, and voters in some states had already begun to vote in advance. Another important point is that Biden cleverly bypassed CPD through this televised debate and kicked out independent candidate Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., limited to him and Trump. Because if Kennedy got involved, he might take away his votes. According to US media reports, CNN set multiple thresholds for the candidates in this debate: meet the constitutional requirements for serving as president; submit a formal candidate statement to the Federal Election Commission; obtain at least 15% support in four national polls that meet CNN standards; appear on enough state ballots to meet the threshold of 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. Under many obstacles, Kennedy obviously found it difficult to meet all the requirements and was excluded. Foreign media believe that Kennedy is an important "spoiler" who may take away a considerable portion of votes. In the latest candidate support poll released by Fox News recently, Biden has 43%, Trump has 42%, and Kennedy has 10%.
According to convention, the presidential debate of the US election is usually scheduled in September or October, but this year it was held in late June. Why is such an arrangement made? Zhang Chunman, an associate researcher at the School of Marxism at Fudan University, believes that Biden first hopes to strike while the iron is hot. Because Trump has been convicted, he hopes to take advantage of the heat of the case and "confront Trump head-on" to attack Trump. But Trump knows Biden's strategy well. There is no doubt that Trump also hopes to confront Biden head-on as soon as possible, because Biden is not impeccable. The two sides tacitly reached a consensus on starting the fight early. But the most important reason is that both sides attach great importance to the "early voting" group. In addition to voting on the day of the election in November, the US election can also vote in advance according to different arrangements in each state. Some states even allow voting dozens of days in advance, that is, in September and October of the traditional debate. This means that holding a debate early, explaining your policy propositions to these early voters, and letting them make a decision early, there is a possibility of one more vote. Moreover, the proportion of people voting early is getting higher and higher. In the 2020 general election, nearly one-third of people chose to vote early.
Not only was the first debate scheduled ahead of schedule, but the design of the on-site rules was also intriguing. In addition to the details that the two sides will use a coin toss to decide the position of the podium and the order of concluding speeches, the requirements of no live audience and closed microphones highlight Biden's careful consideration of this debate. Among them, the "closed microphone" rule requires that the microphones of the two candidates will be muted throughout the debate, unless it is their turn to speak. This effectively avoids the recurrence of the verbal battle between the two during the 2020 presidential election. In the debate four years ago, Biden was deeply troubled by Trump's frequent interruptions. His speech was interrupted by Trump many times, so much so that he was even a little embarrassed and angry: "Can you shut up?"
Zhang Chunman said that after "closing the microphone", Trump will not be able to interrupt or attack the other party when they are speaking, disrupting the other party's rhythm. Without an audience, the candidates cannot interact with others, nor will they be affected by boos, cheers or other sounds. Judging from the debate topics currently disclosed by both sides, including issues such as economy, public safety, immigration, and foreign policy, the overall design has advantages and disadvantages for both sides. It should be said that such an arrangement has a great impact on both sides, but overall it is not conducive to Trump, but more beneficial to Biden. Because of his age, Biden is more susceptible to interference from the outside world. But there is no doubt that policy issues are more conducive to Trump's attack on Biden. After all, the current president is indeed facing serious difficulties at home and abroad.
Zhang Chunman said that this debate is very different from the past, and it is worth paying attention to what specific strategies the two sides will adopt to "finish the game". It is conceivable that the two sides have one thing in common, that is, during the debate, both will try to portray the other as an incompetent candidate and an incompetent future president, especially if elected, they will make the United States a disorderly and chaotic country.
But for Biden, who has been questioned about his age, this debate is undoubtedly the best time for him to show his good condition. Foreign media reported that Biden's main task is to prove that he is still competent for the job of president at the age of 81, while emphasizing that his style and policies are different from Trump's. This will be a "test of endurance" to respond to the attacks on his physical and intellectual acumen by questioners.
"The first debate between the current and former presidents of the United States, the first debate with a felon as the protagonist, the first debate before the official nominees of the major political parties are announced..." A series of labels undoubtedly add more legendary color to this debate. In June, when the official election is not far away, people are waiting to see whether this war of words can become an important "turning point" in the general election. As Trump himself said: "This should be an important night."
