Are young people willing to get married again? , the number of marriages has rebounded in many places

In 2023, 104,200 couples registered for marriage in Shanghai. This number increased by 44.6% compared to 2022, and it was the only time in the past ten years that the number of marriages increased compared to the previous year!

Not only Shanghai, but also the 2023 marriage registration data in many places has seen the "first rebound" in many years, triggering heated discussions.

What signals are sent behind the data changes?

Shanghai is not the only city where the number of marriages will continue to decline before 2023. Looking at China as a whole, the number of marriages has declined for nine consecutive years since it reached its peak of 13.469 million couples in 2013. In 2019, it fell below 10 million pairs, in 2020, it fell below 9 million pairs, in 2021, it fell below 8 million pairs, and by 2022, it fell below the 7 million pair mark.

At present, the specific number of marriages in the country in 2023 has not yet been released, but data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, 5.69 million couples were registered nationwide, an increase of 245,000 couples from the same period last year. It is predicted that for the whole year The number of marriages will exceed the 7 million mark again.

Why did the number of marriages suddenly rebound? Could it be that more people are getting married at an older age?

Judging from the birth rate, not really. According to the main marriage population aged 25-29, the number of births from 1994 to 1998 did not increase, but was in a state of decline. In 1994, the national birth rate was 17.7‰. By 1998, it dropped to 15.64‰.

The number of births each year has also been declining, from 21.21 million in 1994 to 19.91 million in 1998.

Of course, there are differences between regions in the marriage-appropriate population. For example, the marriage age in Shanghai is relatively late. According to the "2023 Shanghai Marriage Registration Data" released by the Civil Affairs Bureau, the average age at marriage registration in 2023 is around 34 or 35 years old, that is Born around 1988.

The birth rate of Shanghai's permanent population entered a small peak after 1986, rising to 15.3‰ in 1987.

Shanghai's birth population peaked in 1987 at 190,200, an increase of 35,900 compared with 1985. But after 1990, the number of births fell below 100,000. This means that 2023 is indeed the numerical peak of Shanghai’s marriage-age population, and after that the number of marriages may decrease as the population declines.

The main reason why 2023 will become the "Wedding Year" is still the epidemic.

Netizen "Zhijiaojun" said that he originally planned to get a marriage license in 2022, but due to the epidemic, it was postponed. "It was not convenient to hold a banquet at that time, and my family members were also getting infected one after another, so I simply waited and there was no rush."

In 2022, a total of 72,000 couples received marriage licenses in Shanghai, the lowest number since 1990. Although the number of marriages has been on a fluctuating downward trend in the past 20 years, the decline in 2022 is unusual, far exceeding the average of the past ten years, and falling by about 20% compared to 2021.

Many couples have postponed their weddings due to the epidemic. In the words of netizen "Zhitojun", "This is not a marriage craze, but a marriage transfer. In the past, there was a South-to-North Water Diversion Project, but now it is a transfer of marriages from 22 years to 23 years."

For example, the number of marriage registration couples in Jiangsu in 2023 will be 453,800, an increase of 10.1% compared to 2022. However, in 2020 and 2022, the decline in the number of marriage pairs in Jiangsu Province is also much higher than the average level in the past decade. The year-on-year decline in 2022 is 13.5%, which is the peak in the past decade.

The same holds true for national data. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in the first quarter of 2020, the number of marriages dropped by 44.68% year-on-year. In the following three quarters, the declines exceeded the previous average.

Therefore, everyone is getting married in 2023, partly because weddings in previous years have been postponed.

"Marriage transfer" includes not only marriages postponed by the epidemic, but also the advancement of wedding dates in 2024.

In related discussions on Weibo, because the Year of the Dragon does not have the "beginning of spring" solar term, it is known among the people as the "year without spring" and is considered unlucky for marriages.

Similar situations have occurred in the past. In 2005, there was no Beginning of Spring in the lunar year, and the number of marriage couples in Shanghai dropped by 17.8% year-on-year. The number of marriages in 2004 and 2006 before and after was both more than in 2005.

Overall, late marriage is still a major trend.

In 2010, the average age of first marriage for men in Shanghai was 28.83 years old, but by 2023, it has been postponed to 30.6 years old; the same is true for women, from 26.51 years old in 2010 to 29.2 years old now.

The national average age at first marriage is lower than that in Shanghai, but the trend of postponement is also obvious: according to the 2020 census data, the national average age at first marriage has been postponed from 24.89 years old in 2010 to 28.67 years old in 2020.

Why are young people getting married later and later or even unwilling to get married?

According to a survey under the Weibo topic "Why young people don't want to get married", among more than 44,000 votes, about 60% of netizens chose "high financial pressure", including pressure on home purchase, education, childbirth and other pressures.

Among them, the high cost of childbearing is especially prohibitive for young people. According to the recently released "China Childbirth Cost Report 2024 Edition", the cost of raising a child to adulthood at the age of 18 is about 538,000 yuan, and if the child graduates from college, the average cost is about 680,000 yuan.

Costs in first-tier cities will be higher. Among them, the average cost of raising a child to adulthood in Beijing and Shanghai reaches 936,000 yuan and 1.01 million yuan respectively. Taking Shanghai as an example, the cost of raising children accounts for about 20% of family income.

The age of first marriage in China is still relatively early compared to developed countries

The increase in the age at first marriage and the increase in the number of people who choose not to get married are closely related to the improvement of my country's urbanization level and economic development level.

As early as 2015, more than half of the UK population was single. One-third of the population in the United States is single. In big cities like New York and Manhattan, more than half of people choose to live alone. The proportion of people living alone in Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, is as high as 60%, which is the country with the highest proportion of people living alone in the world. The number of single people in Japan is as high as 60%. 30% of the total population…

At the same time, the more developed the economy, the later the age of marriage. According to OECD statistics, in 2020, the average age of first marriage for men in the 26 EU countries was 33.8 years old, and for women it was 31.4 years old. Among them, Sweden is at the extreme end of late marriage. In 2020, the average age of first marriage for men has been postponed to 37.5 years old, and for women it was 34.8 years old.

The exception is Israel, where research shows that the local tradition of early marriage is rooted in religious concepts and family consciousness. Social progress brought about by modern education has changed the status quo of early marriage for women, but this change is limited.

To a certain extent, late marriage is an inevitable result of the advancement of social modernization, including the decline in marriage rates, the increase in divorce rates, and the emergence of diversified families such as singles and single-parents, which will lead to subsequent problems such as a decline in birth rates and an aging population. It will also give rise to The development of a series of "single economy". How Chinese society will face this trend in the future requires systematic thinking and designing plans from the top. Blindly urging young people to marry and incubate will not solve the problem.