Why?, "Blowing beards and glaring at Germany and France"
In recent years, Poland's diplomacy has become increasingly "active", and it has been "maverick" on issues such as EU diplomacy, refugees, and security, and often regards itself as the "leader" of Central and Eastern European countries.
Due to historical reasons, Poland does not trust its European neighbors, especially major powers such as Germany and Russia. With the continuous improvement of its comprehensive national strength and the rise of nationalist ideas, Poland is unwilling to obey Germany and France, which have long dominated EU policies. Pro-American, Eurosceptic and anti-Russian have gradually become the main attitudes of Poland's diplomacy. Whether it was during the rule of the populist Law and Justice Party or the pro-European ruling coalition led by the current Prime Minister Tusk, Poland often openly sang against the EU dominated by "Old Europe" on issues such as refugee reception, agricultural subsidies and the Ukrainian crisis.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine rages on, some analysts believe that Poland has gained more and more influence among EU countries by supporting Ukraine. In the future, Poland may become the leader of the "New Europe".
Since joining NATO and the EU, Poland has frequently spoken out on EU foreign policy, especially opposing and criticizing the Russia policies of "old European" countries in an effort to enhance its influence within NATO and the EU.
The "Orange Revolution" broke out in Ukraine in 2004. Since then, Poland has gradually participated in the geopolitical competition between the United States, Europe and Russia in Ukraine, which has also created opportunities for Poland to exert greater influence in the EU's Eastern foreign policy.
In 2008, Poland and Sweden proposed the "EU Eastern Partnership Initiative" to promote the political and economic integration of the "post-Soviet space" countries with the EU; at the end of 2013, when a serious political crisis broke out in Ukraine, Polish leaders went to the demonstration site in Kiev many times to cheer for the Ukrainian opposition; after the Crimean crisis in 2014, Poland actively promoted EU sanctions against Russia to prevent "old European" countries from expanding energy cooperation with Russia; in 2018, Poland, the Czech Republic, the three Baltic countries and other Central and Eastern European countries joined Ukraine and the United States to oppose the construction of the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipeline project by the EU and Russia.
After the new round of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in February 2022, Poland became one of the most active countries in Europe in supporting Ukraine. Poland, with a total population of only over 37 million, once accepted more than 2 million Ukrainian refugees and provided 8.4 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine. Poland also served as one of the pioneers in the EU and NATO to assist Ukraine and sanction Russia, and together with the "New Europe" countries called for support for Ukraine and promoted NATO's military expansion and forward deployment.
On the one hand, Poland opposes the EU's cooperation with Russia, and on the other hand, it strengthens military cooperation with the United States. Polish President Duda recently publicly stated that he hopes to deploy US military tactical nuclear weapons in Poland to achieve shared nuclear security in Europe. On May 23, Polish Prime Minister Tusk proposed to build a European common air defense system within the framework of the European Union, and to jointly respond to aerospace security threats through information sharing and joint use of multinational air defense and anti-missile systems. Some analysts said that the continued delay of regional conflicts has caused the "European Sky Shield Initiative" previously initiated by Germany to resonate in many European countries. Poland is launching a new air defense system project at this time, aiming to reflect its voice in the "New Europe" countries.
On the refugee issue, Poland sees the EU's acceptance of non-Christian immigrants as a threat to its traditional culture and sovereignty, and is unwilling to accept illegal economic immigrants and refugees from the Middle East. In order to refuse to accept the EU's refugee distribution agreement, Poland even endured economic sanctions.
Although Tusk is more pro-European in diplomacy, he also has a tough attitude towards immigration. On May 14, after the EU Council of Ministers meeting, Tusk said that Poland would not accept any immigrants under the EU's new immigration agreement.
The Tusk government also publicly pressured the EU on the issue of Ukrainian agricultural product imports. Tusk said that if the EU cannot more effectively protect the Polish and EU agricultural product markets, Poland will join Slovakia, Hungary and other countries in insisting on a unilateral embargo on more Ukrainian agricultural products.
Poland's increasing "activity" in Europe is primarily due to its growing strength.
Poland can be called a "European power" in terms of territory and population, but its economic development has lagged behind other European countries for a long time. Thanks to the financial support of the European Union and direct investment from other developed countries, Poland has not only successfully survived the painful period of national transformation, but also created many economic miracles, becoming an "excellent student" in the transformation process of Central and Eastern European countries.
Poland's nominal GDP in 2023 reached 3.39 trillion zlotys, making it the sixth largest economy in the European Union and 21st in the world. Its per capita GDP rose from less than $2,300 in 1989 to more than $20,000 in 2023.
Many well-known multinational companies such as Intel, Volkswagen, Toyota, Nissan, etc. have invested in Poland. In the past 10 years, Poland has attracted more than 210 billion US dollars in foreign direct investment. Poland has become one of the fastest-growing and most economically active countries in Europe in the past 30 years.
In recent years, Poland has begun to significantly increase its military spending, from $13.7 billion in 2021 to $32.7 billion in 2024, and expanded its military from 120,000 to 300,000. Poland also spent $60 billion to purchase a large number of advanced weapons from the United States, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Norway and other countries, including fighter jets, armed helicopters, Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS rocket launchers, main battle tanks and frigates. According to its plan, by 2035, the Polish Army will have at least 1,500 tanks and 1,600 artillery pieces, as well as American-made AH-64E armed helicopters. By then, Poland is likely to become NATO's largest and strongest land force in Europe.
The continuous improvement of national economic and military strength has made Poland more willing to participate in EU diplomacy and security affairs, and its influence has also increased. At the same time, Poland has also used exercises and other means to strengthen its relations with its allies and expand its influence on defense in Europe.
The "Resolute Defender 2024" military exercise held from January 24 to May 31 this year is the largest military exercise held by NATO since the end of the Cold War. During the military exercise, Poland, as the host country, successively hosted two joint army exercises, "Dragon 2024" and "Saber Strike", and was responsible for the operational command of armored forces in the European direction. Foreign media broke the news that as the most active participant in the "Resolute Defender 2024" exercise, Poland participated in all training courses and was also the European country with the largest number of troops except Germany.
It is worth mentioning that Poland’s ability to “stand out” from the “new European” countries is inseparable from the diplomatic and defense support of the United States.
The United States attaches great importance to developing relations with Poland and values Poland's influence on EU diplomacy and security affairs. Whenever cracks appear in US-EU relations or differences arise between the United States and Russia, Washington will increase its attention to Poland. On the one hand, Poland closely follows the United States in foreign and security policies. On the other hand, the United States values Poland's role in European diplomacy and security affairs and is considering increasing its support for the "New Europe."
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the EU's diplomatic and security autonomy has gradually strengthened. Germany and France not only oppose the unilateralism of the United States, but also actively promote strategic cooperation between the EU and Russia. However, this EU move was firmly opposed by Poland. Poland vetoed the launch of negotiations on a new "Partnership and Cooperation Agreement" between Russia and the EU twice in 2006 and 2007.
In addition, the United States has never relaxed its defense support for Poland. In August 2008, shortly after the Russia-Georgia conflict, the United States and Poland signed an agreement on the establishment of an anti-missile base in Poland. After the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, NATO began to implement the "Atlantic Resolve" operation to strengthen its military presence in the Baltic Sea and Eastern Europe. In 2017, the United States temporarily stationed troops at the Zagan military base in western Poland. In 2020, the United States and Poland signed the "Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement" to temporarily transfer some U.S. troops stationed in Germany to Poland. In 2021, the United States announced that it would begin to deploy the Army's "Aegis" anti-missile system in Poland. The U.S. military base moved from "Old Europe" to "New Europe", which was not only for the purpose of guarding against Russia, but also for the purpose of supporting "New Europe". After the outbreak of a new round of Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the United States continued to expand its security cooperation with Poland, not only using it as a base for NATO to assist Ukraine, but also announcing the establishment of a permanent military base in Poland in 2023, turning it into a frontier position for NATO to deter Russia.
After the end of the Cold War, more than a dozen Central and Eastern European countries joined the EU and NATO. Poland's "independence" is influenced by its special domestic political and cultural traditions. Poland is not afraid of the authority of "Old Europe" in the EU and always adheres to its own national interests and traditional values. This is something that many other small Central and Eastern European countries dare not do or dare not think about. Of course, even if Poland dares to "blow its beard and glare" at "Old Europe" countries such as Germany and France, it still depends on the United States for its foreign policy because it relies heavily on the strategic support of the United States in terms of security.
