Changes and changes in Iran's domestic and foreign affairs, President Raisi's death
On May 20, in Tehran, the capital of Iran, people mourned the victims of the helicopter crash. Photo by reporter Shadati
The Iranian government confirmed on the 20th that President Raisi was killed in a helicopter accident that occurred on the 19th. The government also stated that operations would continue "without interruption."
Leahy's sudden death saddened the nation and shocked the world. As one of the most influential countries in the Middle East, Iran's domestic and foreign affairs are bound to fluctuate to varying degrees. What changes and changes are there? Please see the reporter’s explanation——
After Leahy's death, Iran quickly determined that First Vice President Mukhbel would act as president. After a meeting between Iranian government, parliamentary and judicial leaders on the 20th, it was determined that the 14th Iranian presidential election will be held on June 28. Media and relevant experts in the Middle East generally believe that the overall situation and power structure in Iran will not fundamentally change in the future.
Israel's "Haaretz" quoted the views of academics, intelligence agencies and experts on Iran as saying that the Iranian president is in charge of economic and domestic affairs and has less say in foreign policy and defense affairs. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has "strategic power" It has the authority to make decisions on matters of "importance" and is assisted by its advisers and the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This is a file photo of Ibrahim Leahy taken on August 5, 2021. hair
Wu Bingbing, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at Peking University, told reporters that from the perspective of Iran's power structure, the president is controlled by the supreme leader, not the country's supreme leader. The Iranian government's domestic and foreign policies have always been made collectively, which is a "consensus." From this perspective, the presidential power is relatively limited. Even if someone succeeds Leahy, Iran's entire domestic and foreign policy trends and power structure will not fundamentally change.
According to reports, in addition to serving as president, Raisi is also regarded as one of Khamenei's popular successor candidates. Another popular successor candidate is Khamenei's second son Mujtaba Khamenei.
When Leahy was killed, tensions in the Middle East were escalating. This air crash forced Iran to re-elect the president in a short time despite the difficulties and challenges it was already facing. This would make Iran "Retracting" its main energy may affect its foreign policy in the Middle East.
In addition to Leahy, the senior Iraqi officials who were killed this time also included Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan who was traveling with them. Jon Altman, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank, analyzed that Abdullahiyan is a thoughtful diplomat who can speak Arabic. During his tenure, he established relations with many Middle Eastern neighbors and gained the trust of many colleagues. It will take some time to rebuild these connections. However, Altman also believes that Iran’s relations with major countries such as China and Russia will not be affected.
On May 12, in Tehran, Iran, Abdullahiyan delivered a speech at the third Iran-Arab Dialogue. Photo by reporter Shadati
According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency on the 20th, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani was appointed as the “caretaker” Foreign Minister. According to the New York Times, Ali Bagheri Kani is the head of the Iranian delegation that has indirect dialogue with the United States and Iran through Oman. In the past year, he has led the delegation to dialogue with the United States at least three times. The newspaper believes that this shows that Khamenei prefers to maintain the continuity of Iran’s foreign policy.
In the past few years, the geopolitics of the Middle East has taken on a new dynamic. The United States continues to bring about reconciliation between Israel and the Gulf countries in an attempt to create greater strategic pressure on Iran in the Middle East. During Leahy’s tenure, Iran continued to expand its strategic space in the face of aggressive actions from the West, and through the development of cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Direct relations with other Gulf countries as well as Pakistan and even Azerbaijan to find solutions.
Some people believe that the loss of Leahy will make the Iranian leadership pay more attention to the domestic situation in the short term. The Middle East pattern may be "reshuffled" and become more turbulent due to the uncertainty of Iran's domestic situation. The complicated interest disputes between the parties may also have a negative impact on Iran and Iran. Relations between Arab countries have had ripples, affecting the "tide of reconciliation" in the Middle East.
Leahy's sudden death in a plane crash came just as Israel's offensive against the Palestinian Gaza Strip was delayed for seven months. In April this year, in retaliation for an air attack on Iran's diplomatic mission in Syria, Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel with drones and missiles. An Israeli official said on the 20th that Israel had nothing to do with Leahy's death. The United States has also stated that it has nothing to do with this matter.
Lu Jin, an associate researcher at the Institute of West Africa and Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that although Iran has repeatedly accused Israel of conducting espionage and sabotage operations against Iran's nuclear program and defense and security targets in recent years, at present, there is no evidence to link this accident with Israel connection.
Liu Lanyu, an assistant researcher at the Institute of International and Area Studies at Tsinghua University, said that if the relevant investigations in Iran do not find strong evidence that the United States and Israel are involved, Iran-US and Iran-Israel relations may not be greatly affected.
Liu Lanyu believes that the United States and Iran have just held indirect negotiations in Oman to discuss Iran's regional initiatives and the status of its nuclear program. Leahy's death may delay the entire Iranian nuclear negotiation process, but since Iran's top decision-maker is not the president, but the supreme leader, Iran's overall line and direction will not change much.
The New York Times quoted Dennis Ross, former director of the U.S. State Department's Office of Policy Planning, as saying that Khamenei allowed the Iranian government to contact the U.S. government, but could not make compromises and "did not want a direct conflict with the United States." This reflects the "cautious" side of the Iranian government's tough policy toward the United States led by Leahy.
According to reports, one of the goals of the US indirect negotiations in Oman and Iran is to prevent the Palestinian-Israeli conflict from continuing to spill over. The newspaper is worried about whether the successors of Leahy and Abdollahyan will continue similar cautious policies, and whether the possibility of continued dialogue between the two countries still exists as the change of power in Iran and the US presidential election approach.
