Second Eye | How does the president’s death in the plane crash affect Iran’s political situation? Expert: The next president may still be a hardliner

Release time:May 21, 2024 11:22 AM

On the 20th, Iran shocked the world by confirming that President Raisi had been killed in a plane crash. Although the government cabinet immediately stated that "it will continue to move forward along the path of President Leahy, and the country's governance will not be disturbed." However, as an important domestic political figure in Iran, Leahy's death still caused great concern about the changes in Iran's political situation. .

In Iran's political structure, religious leader Khamenei is the highest authority, while President Raisi is responsible for specific administrative affairs. Raisi is reportedly close to Khamenei. The two met earlier during the "Islamic Revolution". After Khamenei became Iran's supreme leader, Raisi was promoted to various positions. In 2021, Leahy was appointed as the president of Iran by Khamenei. He was widely regarded as Khamenei's "potential successor" by the outside world. Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Middle East Studies Center at Fudan University, believes that overall, Leahy’s unexpected death has limited impact on Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. On the one hand, because Iran’s top decision-maker is Khamenei rather than Raisi; on the other hand, hard-liners have become the dominant force in Iran’s political arena and occupy more seats in parliament. In future presidential elections, hard-line politics are likely to remain House was elected.

The outside world generally believes that Leahy's death will still bring a test to Khamenei and bring certain variables to Iran's future power transfer. Zhang Chuchu said that this unexpected incident is likely to further highlight Iran’s original internal conflicts. The first is the internal contradictions of the political elite. Judging from the current political situation in Iran, as president, the impact of the replacement is actually limited. However, as the popular successor to the Supreme Leader, Leahy's death has suddenly left a political vacuum and is likely to intensify factional struggles in Iran. Originally, Iran's elite had complex factional competition, and each faction hoped to support their favorite successor. Lacey has rich experience in governing, a large network of contacts, relatively high political prestige, and maintains good relations with many factions. It is difficult to find a politician who can replace him in the current Iranian political arena in a short period of time. The second is the rise in conflicts between the military and the clergy. There are two forces in Iranian politics whose political influence cannot be underestimated. One is the Shiite clergy group, and the other is Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In recent years, there have been some line disputes, differences in interests and political games between these two forces. Raisi was a high-level cleric in Iran, and his death is undoubtedly a major loss to the clergy group. After the serious terrorist attacks broke out at the beginning of the year, Iran made security matters a priority. The crash of the president is bound to make the importance of safety and security work more prominent. As a result, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may gain more resources and power. The third is the line dispute between the opposition and the political elite. As Iran's economic depression and people's livelihood difficulties have intensified in recent years, civil protests have arisen one after another, with the opposition constantly criticizing the hard-liners' economic and diplomatic lines. At present, this kind of civil mobilization activities may not decrease but increase.

Zhang Chuchu said that in the short term, the death of Lehi in the plane crash will also have a certain impact on Iran's diplomacy. In this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iran has always played a pivotal role, and has even directly engaged Israel. But recently, Iran has been carrying out negotiations with the United States, including the United States. As a core figure in negotiations with the United States, Leahy's death means that new negotiators in the future may need to re-explore the details of the negotiations. The original negotiations May encounter obstacles. On the other hand, in the context of a political vacuum in Iran and intensified competition for power among various factions, in order to consolidate their ruling position and regional influence, hard-liners may vigorously promote hawkish policies, which may bring tension to the already tense regional situation. Come to greater variables.


Second Eye | How does the president’s death in the plane crash affect Iran’s political situation? Expert: The next president may still be a hardliner
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[have a look]
May 23, 2024 20:15 PM
0
Well-informed
It affects our layout in the Middle East too much [I’m about to cry]
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11
User 136644391
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Despite the strong winds and waves, we move forward bravely.
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vonka comics
Ahmadinejad will also shout [Nine Turns of Large Intestine]
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Enough, Jiade shakes the influence of Lao Ha’s interests
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Power can corrode human bones, power can rot people's hearts
May 22, 2024 05:30 AM
9
I used to……
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1
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Unless Ney dies
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Will it have a big impact on domestic oil imports?
May 22, 2024 04:56 AM
6
yanbeidaokeLate Night Song
95% of the oil is sold to us [tears]
May 22, 2024 18:34 PM
2
Late Night Song
It can only be said that it has no impact at all, and I wish I could sell more to us. We are the only buyers in Iran.
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1
Unravel the language of flowers.
Iran officially enters the post-Khamenei era
May 22, 2024 04:54 AM
45
Vision
Even if his underwear didn't kill him, he was already showing off.
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1
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11
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🐾Appointment
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3
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0
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20
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Khamenei has two successors, one is Raisi, and the other is Khamenei’s son [awk laugh][awk laugh][awk laugh][awk laugh][awk laugh][awk laugh][awk laugh]
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Yizhen layman talks about strategy
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I’m just waiting to go up the mountain in a few decades [face covering]
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3
Lao Luo talks about art test
Why have people pursued power at all costs since ancient times? What is the motivation behind this?
May 22, 2024 00:38 AM
41
SeptemberDa da
Wrong.
May 23, 2024 00:46 AM
0
Da da
If you don't fight, you'll be liquidated.
May 22, 2024 21:07 PM
5
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From ancient times to the present, there have always been people who take the wrong side of the sword, so it’s not surprising! This may be one of the laws of nature, which cannot be changed!
May 22, 2024 19:13 PM
0
TA Dahao
desire
May 22, 2024 17:55 PM
0
To Ruochun and Jingming 2024💜
money, power, fame
May 22, 2024 16:46 PM
0
Kick the lame man's good leg wildly,
It is said that Khamenei’s youngest wife is only 9 years old. Do you know why?
May 22, 2024 14:01 PM
8
What I see is loneliness
Thin air at upper levels
May 22, 2024 10:46 AM
2
heart
Desire, greed!
May 22, 2024 08:47 AM
3
laizhaoe70690584
The mother channel has the answer,
May 22, 2024 08:14 AM
2
User 2002435777321
Live! To put it bluntly, technology cannot keep up with social development, and living resources continue to be consumed, which will cause the remaining resources to become more and more expensive. You have to spend more money to buy and survive. More money means more fierce competition. .
May 22, 2024 07:03 AM
4
Guanzhong
The bustle in the world is all for the benefit of coming; the hustle and bustle of the world is all for the benefit of the future.
May 22, 2024 06:18 AM
0
Crazy Chengdu
Power can corrode human bones, power can rot people's hearts
May 22, 2024 05:30 AM
9
Gui family pastoral dog
Five thousand years of history is nothing more than fame and fortune
May 22, 2024 02:19 AM
20
sunny
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May 21, 2024 23:48 PM
4
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Two people, one from Azerbaijan and one from Jordan, have not been caught yet.
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Lao Zhu loves to flirt with girls
[have a look]
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1
00000
[Face covering] Anti-American vanguard? ? ? ? I didn't accomplish anything big back then, so I just screamed loudly.
May 21, 2024 22:51 PM
19
legend
It will be someone who is pro-American.
May 21, 2024 22:49 PM
44
Mr Zhang
Pull it down
May 23, 2024 00:17 AM
0
Third brother loves the situation✲🇨🇳
It doesn’t work for anyone on stage
May 22, 2024 15:38 PM
0
Peter Pan...
I should say they are conservative and hard-line anti-Americans [laughing awkwardly]
May 22, 2024 12:48 PM
2
shanxi
As long as Khamenei is around, there will be no pro-Americans
May 22, 2024 07:48 AM
10
Liu Tiedan
It doesn’t matter if you kiss the United States or not, the Middle East needs a chess piece like this.
May 22, 2024 03:15 AM
13
rice
Hahaha, it’s not like I’ve never been to [呲ya]
May 21, 2024 22:23 PM
22
It’s really embarrassing for Ahmadinejad to have sex with the United States. Ahmadinejad is a vanguard against the United States.
May 21, 2024 22:21 PM
108
Shiny
Where is Ahmadinejad?
May 21, 2024 21:54 PM
46
Poetry and the distanceFunny than really funny
How many years have others been out? Why do they still pretend to be great if they don’t understand?
May 23, 2024 00:48 AM
5
Funny than really funny
In jail [cover face]
May 22, 2024 11:19 AM
10
Knife Farm
He seems to be teaching at Tehran University
May 22, 2024 07:56 AM
7
Huaizhi.
First of all, Ahmadinejad is a conservative, and secondly, Iran's economy declined during his reign.
May 21, 2024 21:35 PM
7
Tiger talks nonsense
Let’s talk about the possibility of Ahmadinejad coming out again?
May 21, 2024 21:19 PM
87
Magnificent curtain call
There is no way out unless Khamenei has an accident in a short time.
May 22, 2024 07:49 AM
3
Cat Detective 🐱
Enough, Jiade shakes the influence of Lao Ha’s interests
May 22, 2024 05:40 AM
4
Lunn your attention
Unless Ney dies
May 22, 2024 05:12 AM
0
Look beyond the surface
Ahmadinejad sunbathes in prison
May 22, 2024 03:57 AM
1
Xu Xinglai
cannot
May 22, 2024 01:49 AM
1
98706953398
I’m just waiting to go up the mountain in a few decades [face covering]
May 22, 2024 00:52 AM
8
I'm so handsome that I won't die, right?
[cover face]
May 21, 2024 21:17 PM
1
Lin Linqi
Hope hardline Ahmadinejad returns
May 21, 2024 20:51 PM
106
Simple little fish Fu
He is American
May 22, 2024 20:46 PM
3
dy8vb5mcfepq
It's impossible for him. You thought it was the foreign minister. Tossing and turning to get it out [covering face]
May 22, 2024 19:44 PM
0
Surrounded but not a city
Conservative
May 22, 2024 15:33 PM
0
Jiang Xiaohe
They've always been tough verbally
May 22, 2024 10:58 AM
16
Vision
Even if his underwear didn't kill him, he was already showing off.
May 22, 2024 04:18 AM
16
✨Excellence✨Huaizhi.
Rouhani's comeback is the right answer, but Ahmadinejad cannot do the economy.
May 22, 2024 02:36 AM
4
Huaizhi.
First of all, Ahmadinejad is a conservative, and secondly, Iran's economy declined during his reign.
May 21, 2024 21:35 PM
7
LinSalty
Ahmadinejad and Hamme are at odds
May 21, 2024 20:50 PM
17
Lake Green Six
How nice.
May 21, 2024 20:15 PM
1
fox
You think too much,
May 21, 2024 20:11 PM
12
Hunter chasing the wind
Khamenei is the real boss
May 21, 2024 20:05 PM
15
Wukong Kong
He is over eighty years old and has no successor.
May 22, 2024 22:19 PM
0
Lao Zhu loves to flirt with girls
[have a look]
May 22, 2024 16:25 PM
0
Buddhist photovoltaic love miracle
Strongly recommend Ahmadinejad and Khamenei to stay safe!
May 21, 2024 19:36 PM
709
Meng Meng
[covering face] I’m getting older
May 22, 2024 19:12 PM
0
beautiful forgetfulness
No need for advice, Khamenei doesn’t like him
May 22, 2024 18:12 PM
2
Username is hidden
Khamenei must hurry up and leave a legacy. If he is killed or dies of natural causes, Persia will have to fight a civil war for at least ten years!
May 22, 2024 17:50 PM
4
watermelon⭐
Sun Zaimei
May 22, 2024 17:15 PM
1
King Wen of Zhou exchanged King Chu Ba’s Xuanyuan Sword for my own bitter tea seeds.
Ahmadinejad finally got a good death, so don’t mess with him anymore, just let Ney’s son go. Don’t mess with useless things, and save others from dying [nose picking]
May 22, 2024 16:32 PM
4
cat forest
Look how anxious you are
May 22, 2024 16:28 PM
0
Sword Lord's Twelve Hates
Ahmadinejad and the leader of the Khalifa religion don’t seem to be dealing with it [face covering]
May 22, 2024 16:07 PM
1
Cold (눈_눈) mint
Ahmadinejad and Kazakhstan are at odds [nose picking]
May 22, 2024 15:24 PM
0
Red-necked Yellow Man
Ney's eldest son said: Want to follow in the footsteps?
May 22, 2024 14:46 PM
0
🉑ANG𝑻𝒊𝒂𝒎𝒐💥
Is Ahmadinejad still in jail [use your brain]
May 22, 2024 14:02 PM
0
🤺🤔᭄you丷丷
A funny guy
May 22, 2024 13:54 PM
0
against the sun
Didn’t it mean that a US military plane C17 landed in Azerbaijan from Israel that day? I flew back to Israel immediately after the accident.
May 22, 2024 13:36 PM
0
Qilin Walker
The headscarf is on, it won’t be taken off so soon [see]
May 22, 2024 12:14 PM
0
Hao Ze Ze Ze
That’s a good suggestion, please keep suggesting it.
May 22, 2024 11:44 AM
1
Sudarisi wow, ha
All gone to jail
May 22, 2024 10:22 AM
0
Pa Zhang Zi Mo
If Ahmadinejad comes to power, the United States will be happy and it will not be good for us either.
May 22, 2024 09:44 AM
0
Green mountains and green waters
I hope Iran will remain stable and never become chaotic.
May 22, 2024 08:42 AM
20
Lao Zhu loves to flirt with girls
[look]
May 22, 2024 07:45 AM
1
vonka comics
Ahmadinejad will also shout [Nine Turns of Large Intestine]
May 22, 2024 06:48 AM
1
vonka comics
At that time, neither China nor Russia were fighting against hegemony. Who would dare to do so except Ahmadinejad?
May 22, 2024 06:32 AM
0
I am prosperous and will not return to others00000
Because of Khamenei's constraints and differences of opinion in the later period, Ahmadinejad resigned.
May 22, 2024 05:32 AM
0
Jiangsu Bu Architecture Gorgeous Lifevonka comics
[weak]
May 22, 2024 04:16 AM
1
vonka comics
Apart from screaming, what other important things has Ahmadinejad done?
May 22, 2024 03:15 AM
4
vonka comicsYizhen layman talks about strategy
It’s no use supporting anyone. How many times have you been beaten by Israel?
May 22, 2024 02:46 AM
2
Yizhen layman talks about strategy00000
Was there support from Rabbit and Bear back then? Don't forget those days. Back then, the American emperor hadn't fallen into such a bad state now.
May 22, 2024 01:23 AM
4
dydetxmy1mxh
Are you so awesome? [See]
May 22, 2024 00:45 AM
3
00000
Are you worthy of taking me back? I’m not even worried about my profile picture. It’s so easy to make money in the navy.
May 21, 2024 23:28 PM
13
00000
[Face covering] Anti-American vanguard? ? ? ? I didn't accomplish anything big back then, so I just screamed loudly.
May 21, 2024 22:51 PM
19
rice
Hahaha, it’s not like I’ve never been to [呲ya]
May 21, 2024 22:23 PM
22
It’s really embarrassing for Ahmadinejad to have sex with the United States. Ahmadinejad is a vanguard against the United States.
May 21, 2024 22:21 PM
108
I'm so handsome that I won't die, right?
[cover face]
May 21, 2024 21:17 PM
1
LinSalty
Ahmadinejad and Hamme are at odds
May 21, 2024 20:50 PM
17
Lake Green Sixfox
How nice.
May 21, 2024 20:15 PM
1
fox
You think too much,
May 21, 2024 20:11 PM
12
South Korea invites China and Japan to hold a high-level official meeting, marking the first time in four years that Japan | China | South Korea
South Korea invites China and Japan to hold a high-level official meeting, marking the first time in four years that Japan | China | South Korea

On September 19th, the official websites of the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the high-level officials meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea is scheduled to be held in Seoul, South Korea on September 26th. Senior officials from the three countries will negotiate and promote various matters related to the trilateral cooperation mechanism, evaluate the current status of intergovernmental cooperation among the three countries, and extensively discuss the direction of future cooperation. This is the restart of the Three Kingdoms high-ranking officials meeting after four years. According to convention, the operation of the high-level consultation mechanism between China, Japan, and South Korea follows the order of the high-ranking officials meeting, the foreign ministers meeting, and the leaders meeting. Therefore, the holding of this meeting is also seen as the latest signal for the three countries to coordinate higher-level meetings. According to a statement released on the website of the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 19th, the high-level meeting will be chaired by Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Korea, Zheng Bingyuan, and will be attended by Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of China Nong Rong and Foreign Affairs Review Officer of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Kan'ei Kanyu.

This year, the number of homeless people in the United States has seen a record increase. American media: The largest increase since the pandemic | The number of homeless people in the United States | This year
This year, the number of homeless people in the United States has seen a record increase. American media: The largest increase since the pandemic | The number of homeless people in the United States | This year

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 15th that as the COVID-19 receded, the number of homeless people in the United States hit a record high this year. The statistics so far have increased by about 11% compared with last year, more than 580000 people, the largest increase since the US government began tracking data in 2007. The Wall Street Journal compared data from 67 out of the 100 regions with the highest number of homeless people last year, with 48 regions showing growth this year. California accounts for the majority of this data. It is estimated that 171000 Californians are homeless this year, accounting for 30% of the total homeless population in the United States. Among them, the number of homeless people in Santiago alone is 10264, an increase of 22% from last year. In addition, the homeless in Denver, Colorado

Musk: Cowards, stop fighting? Zuckerberg: No Speculation, No Companion, Cage Fighting | Zuckerberg | Musk
Musk: Cowards, stop fighting? Zuckerberg: No Speculation, No Companion, Cage Fighting | Zuckerberg | Musk

It seems that the "cage fight" between two American Internet giants, Musk and Zuckerberg, which has been going on for more than two months, is going to end? Zuckerberg said on the 13th local time that Musk was "not serious" about the booking, "it's time to look forward.". In response, Musk posted on his social media platform, the original Twitter account renamed "X", saying, "Zack is a coward." In response, the onlookers who watched the "verbal battle" in the air for over two months couldn't help but feel confused: whether Musk and Zuckerberg will still fight or not? After earning enough traffic, this hype seems to be coming to an end. Zuckerberg: Forgive me for not accompanying you. In June of this year, after Facebook founder Zuckerberg announced the creation of a new platform called "Clue" to benchmark Musk's "X", Musk proposed to engage in a "cage fight" with Zuckerberg under the instigation of netizens. Unexpectedly

Will the United States "package" cluster ammunition to help Ukraine counterattack?, A new round of military aid to Ukraine is on the way to cluster ammunition | Ukraine | United States
Will the United States "package" cluster ammunition to help Ukraine counterattack?, A new round of military aid to Ukraine is on the way to cluster ammunition | Ukraine | United States

According to sources familiar with the matter, the Biden administration is expected to announce a new round of military assistance to Ukraine on the 7th local time, which will include highly controversial cluster ammunition. The outside world believes that the United States has made a decision to provide cluster ammunition to Ukraine, which is closely related to the changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The United States hopes to help Ukraine break through Russia's defense and advance its current counterattack through this move. Human rights organizations urge the United States not to deliver cluster ammunition to Ukraine to avoid causing innocent civilian casualties. The public opinion points out that the United States disregards humanitarian concerns and insists on transporting controversial and widely banned cluster ammunition to Ukraine, which not only faces condemnation from international public opinion, but may also cause concerns among allies and even damage their unity. Because most EU and NATO member states sign

The racecourse land will be redeveloped, and Singapore's 180 year history of horse racing will come to an end. Land redevelopment | The only racecourse will be closed | Singapore
The racecourse land will be redeveloped, and Singapore's 180 year history of horse racing will come to an end. Land redevelopment | The only racecourse will be closed | Singapore

The Singapore Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of National Development issued a statement on the 5th stating that Singapore's only racecourse, the Jockey Club, will hold its final race in October 2024 and close in March 2027. The local government has decided to use the site for development to meet land use needs. This means that Singapore's 180 year history of horse racing will come to an end, attracting public attention. The difficult decision is that "Singapore is a city-state with limited land. The government continuously reviews land use plans to meet current needs while ensuring sufficient land for future generations to use." Both departments stated in a statement that in recent years, the number of spectators for local equestrian events has also decreased. The Singapore government has decided to redevelop this 120 hectare site, which will be used for housing, including public housing, and may also be used in the future