Second Eye | How does the president’s death in the plane crash affect Iran’s political situation? Expert: The next president may still be a hardliner
On the 20th, Iran shocked the world by confirming that President Raisi had been killed in a plane crash. Although the government cabinet immediately stated that "it will continue to move forward along the path of President Leahy, and the country's governance will not be disturbed." However, as an important domestic political figure in Iran, Leahy's death still caused great concern about the changes in Iran's political situation. .
In Iran's political structure, religious leader Khamenei is the highest authority, while President Raisi is responsible for specific administrative affairs. Raisi is reportedly close to Khamenei. The two met earlier during the "Islamic Revolution". After Khamenei became Iran's supreme leader, Raisi was promoted to various positions. In 2021, Leahy was appointed as the president of Iran by Khamenei. He was widely regarded as Khamenei's "potential successor" by the outside world. Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Middle East Studies Center at Fudan University, believes that overall, Leahy’s unexpected death has limited impact on Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. On the one hand, because Iran’s top decision-maker is Khamenei rather than Raisi; on the other hand, hard-liners have become the dominant force in Iran’s political arena and occupy more seats in parliament. In future presidential elections, hard-line politics are likely to remain House was elected.
The outside world generally believes that Leahy's death will still bring a test to Khamenei and bring certain variables to Iran's future power transfer. Zhang Chuchu said that this unexpected incident is likely to further highlight Iran’s original internal conflicts. The first is the internal contradictions of the political elite. Judging from the current political situation in Iran, as president, the impact of the replacement is actually limited. However, as the popular successor to the Supreme Leader, Leahy's death has suddenly left a political vacuum and is likely to intensify factional struggles in Iran. Originally, Iran's elite had complex factional competition, and each faction hoped to support their favorite successor. Lacey has rich experience in governing, a large network of contacts, relatively high political prestige, and maintains good relations with many factions. It is difficult to find a politician who can replace him in the current Iranian political arena in a short period of time. The second is the rise in conflicts between the military and the clergy. There are two forces in Iranian politics whose political influence cannot be underestimated. One is the Shiite clergy group, and the other is Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In recent years, there have been some line disputes, differences in interests and political games between these two forces. Raisi was a high-level cleric in Iran, and his death is undoubtedly a major loss to the clergy group. After the serious terrorist attacks broke out at the beginning of the year, Iran made security matters a priority. The crash of the president is bound to make the importance of safety and security work more prominent. As a result, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may gain more resources and power. The third is the line dispute between the opposition and the political elite. As Iran's economic depression and people's livelihood difficulties have intensified in recent years, civil protests have arisen one after another, with the opposition constantly criticizing the hard-liners' economic and diplomatic lines. At present, this kind of civil mobilization activities may not decrease but increase.
Zhang Chuchu said that in the short term, the death of Lehi in the plane crash will also have a certain impact on Iran's diplomacy. In this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iran has always played a pivotal role, and has even directly engaged Israel. But recently, Iran has been carrying out negotiations with the United States, including the United States. As a core figure in negotiations with the United States, Leahy's death means that new negotiators in the future may need to re-explore the details of the negotiations. The original negotiations May encounter obstacles. On the other hand, in the context of a political vacuum in Iran and intensified competition for power among various factions, in order to consolidate their ruling position and regional influence, hard-liners may vigorously promote hawkish policies, which may bring tension to the already tense regional situation. Come to greater variables.
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