The Observer | Germany vs. the United States in Central Asia: Similar and Different Issues | Cooperation | United States
German Chancellor Scholz held his first summit with the visiting leaders of the five Central Asian countries in Berlin on September 29. It is worth noting that the German version of the C51 summit was held only ten days after the American version of C51 in New York. As the most economically powerful country in the EU, Germany has strengthened cooperation with the EU in the form of a heads of state summit for the first time since the Ukrainian crisis escalated last year. The regional linkage in Central Asia is intended to enhance the EU’s so-called “neighbors’ strategic approach”.
The Ukraine crisis has a major impact on the security of European and Central Asian countries. Europe's diplomacy aimed at seeking mutually beneficial and peaceful solutions affects Russia's strategic rear, while Central Asian countries use their geographical advantages to expand the space and distance of diplomacy. In addition to China, Russia and the United States, Germany realizes that it urgently needs to increase its enthusiasm for the Central Asia Summit to avoid falling behind countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India that have a traditional C51 model with Central Asia.
In fact, the EU has had diplomatic relations with Central Asia for three decades. In May 2019, the European Commission issued a joint statement entitled "EU and Central Asia: New Opportunities for a Stronger Partnership", setting out a new vision for further strengthening partnerships with the five Central Asian countries. While increasing investment and assistance, the EU also promotes member states to independently carry out dialogue and cooperation. In addition to the EU's overall dialogue with Central Asia, major European countries also have the C51 dialogue model. As the EU country with the closest ties to Central Asia, Germany was the first to resume flights with Central Asia after the epidemic. This summit hopes to enhance economic, trade, security and cultural cooperation with Central Asia, and also serves as a hedge against the summit diplomacy of global powers towards Central Asia.
The German and American versions of the Central Asian dialogue models are similar but not similar:
First, the purposes of development cooperation are consistent. Central Asia has never been a diplomatic focus of Germany and the United States. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the China-Russia summit have promoted the C51 summit between Germany and the United States. They hope to further strengthen their strategic partnership with Central Asia, enhance political dialogue, and further expand trade, economy, investment and humanitarianism. cooperate. At the two summits of the US-German version of C51, both countries expressed interest in developing the "Middle Corridor" across the Caspian Sea, and both strived to improve the connectivity role in this corridor. Obviously, they also wanted to get rid of their geographical dependence on Russia.
Secondly, the target is obvious. After the Ukraine crisis escalated, the United States and Europe adopted multiple rounds of economic sanctions against Russia. In view of Central Asia's traditional economic and trade relations with Russia, the corresponding "secondary sanctions" have many cascading effects on the Central Asia region. Both summits have To appease, it is more intended to divide the relations between Central Asian countries and Russia, while alienating relations with China, driving a wedge between the hinterlands of China and Russia, and trying to establish control over sanctioned goods that may be transferred to Russia.
Thirdly, both Germany and the United States have certain interest commitments and investment arrangements for Central Asian countries. The economic and trade relations between the two countries in Central Asia have recently been improved, which has also laid the foundation for bilateral cooperation. For example, the United States' direct investment in Kazakhstan will be US$5.1 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 82%; the bilateral trade volume between Germany and Kazakhstan will increase by 25% year-on-year in 2022, totaling US$2.8 billion, and Germany and Kazakhstan are cooperating with nearly a thousand companies. During the two summits, large enterprises from both sides also held trade and investment docking and discussions.
Finally, Central Asian countries are the short- and medium-term interests of Germany and the United States. The stance of Central Asian countries on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fully demonstrated their opposition to confrontation in the form of sanctions, which will have a negative impact on trade and economic cooperation between countries. By conducting constructive diplomacy in Central Asia, Germany and the United States can temporarily find a peace and cooperation solution acceptable to all parties.
However, Germany and the United States also have different demands for Central Asia:
First, the focus is different. The American version of C51 strives to promote economic cooperation between the United States and Central Asian countries, as well as strengthen cooperation to solve security challenges such as cybersecurity, terrorism, violent extremism, illegal immigration, and drug trafficking; the German version of C51 focuses on the economic and trade relations and development of both parties. Issues such as new transport and transit corridors and cooperation in the energy field focused on climate change and water shortages, as well as the melting of glaciers and ecological environment changes in Central Asia. However, the summit only held discussions and contained no substantive cooperation documents to promote the development of Central Asia.
Second, the vehicles for investment in Central Asia are different. For example, the United States is using institutions affiliated to the U.S. State Department and the American Chamber of Commerce to build commercial platforms to invest in C51, and is increasing the layout of the digital industry chain in Central Asia, introducing the VISA payment system to hedge Russian and Chinese banks and digital assets in Central Asia. payment system; Germany, on the other hand, relies on large entities, such as multinational companies such as Mercedes-Benz Group, Linde, Siemens and Bayer, to invest in Central Asia. The industrial field is concentrated in energy and chemical industry. Germany hopes to establish an efficient financial system in Central Asia. A platform of production facilities to manufacture products of German quality.
Third, the five Central Asian countries have different interests. In view of Kazakhstan's economic size and leading role in Central Asia, Germany and the United States have traditionally had great interest in Kazakhstan. However, at these two summits, the United States has gradually launched an offensive against Uzbekistan - first of all, it values Uzbekistan. Regarding the influence of Afghanistan, if the United States wants to strategically return to Central Asia, it must resolve the Afghan issue; and geographically, Ukraine is a country that borders neither China nor Russia, which makes it easier for the United States to exert influence in the region. Due to its traditional relationship, Germany has continuously promoted political reforms in Kazakhstan.
Finally, the separate investments of Germany and the United States in Central Asia will result in actual competition of interests, and Central Asian countries will also suffer losses because of their different demands. For example, in order to get rid of their dependence on China and Russia in the supply of key materials and rare earth metals, Germany and the United States have developed a huge interest in rare minerals in Central Asia and have proposed new demands for Central Asia. However, the total amount of fossil materials is insufficient. Continuing, Central Asian countries cannot sell more than one thing. As Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other countries covet the region, it will trigger more internal friction and expand the contradiction between Germany and the United States.
(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. This article represents only his personal views.
Editor’s email: ylq@jfdaily.com)
