Sweden's "lightning entry" into the Treaty may still be a dead end. Turkey and Hungary will not let up, and the depth | The West is stepping up efforts to promote the United States before the NATO Summit | Türkiye | NATO | Sweden

Recently, there has been intensive communication among relevant parties regarding Sweden's accession to NATO. On July 5th, US President Biden met with Swedish Prime Minister Christsson at the White House. On the 6th, NATO plans to convene officials from Türkiye, Hungary and Sweden to meet. The United States and NATO are eager to finalize this matter as the NATO summit approaches next week.

However, this tortuous process that has lasted for a year has already encountered many problems. Why is NATO led by the United States intensifying its push for Sweden's accession to the treaty? Can we achieve our wish? Why are NATO members Türkiye and Hungary delayed in giving the "green light"?

One stone, three birds

After the escalation of the Ukraine crisis early last year, Nordic countries Finland and Sweden simultaneously applied to join NATO in May last year. Although the two countries once wanted to join hands to enter the treaty, Finland had no choice but to fly alone. After obtaining unanimous agreement from 30 NATO member states, Finland became the 31st member state of NATO in April this year.

At the same time, Sweden's "accession" process continued to face opposition from Türkiye and Hungary, and reached an impasse. NATO, led by the United States, urgently hopes that Sweden will join this military alliance on the occasion of the new NATO summit.

Therefore, all parties have recently engaged in intensive consultations. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said recently that Türkiye, Hungary and Sweden will convene a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on July 6 to discuss Sweden's "accession" to the Treaty.

On July 5th, US President Biden met with Swedish Prime Minister Christsson at the White House, and Sweden's accession to the treaty became an important issue. Previously, the White House repeatedly emphasized that Sweden has fulfilled its "accession" commitments and hopes that Sweden can join NATO as soon as possible. On June 28, Deputy Spokesperson Patel of the US State Department also called on Türkiye and Hungary to urge them to ratify Sweden's "accession" to the Treaty as soon as possible.

The intensification of the US push for Sweden's accession to the treaty is thought-provoking. Zhao Junjie, a researcher at the European Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the United States has a "one stone, three birds" consideration.

One is to enhance NATO's influence. Considering Sweden's geographical location, once Sweden joins NATO, it may pose a significant threat to Russia's western defense. It is worth noting that as a neighboring country of Sweden, Finland's military strength cannot be underestimated, and it has become a member of NATO.

There is a 1340 kilometer border between Finland and Russia, which is the longest border between EU member states and Russia. Once Sweden joins NATO, it is expected to enhance the linkage between Sweden and Finland.

"Promoting Sweden's accession is a core link in NATO's expansion of its sphere of influence," said Zhao Junjie. Once Sweden joins, it means that NATO's globalization strategy has taken a "welcome" step.

The second is to enhance NATO's military strength. Zhao Junjie said that Sweden can be said to be the most powerful Nordic country in terms of military strength, with military companies such as Saab. At present, the development of fighter jets in Sweden has undergone four to five generations of updates, and the Eagle Lion fighter jet is considered one of the "Three Musketeers" of European fighter jets today.

The third is to generate motivation for other countries that are still observing to join NATO. After all, Sweden, which has been following a neutral policy for hundreds of years, now insists on joining NATO.

Ye Jiang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and advisor to the Shanghai European Society, also stated that if Sweden successfully joins, it is expected to boost NATO. In addition, in the view of NATO led by the United States, the current is a relatively good time.

Yejiang said that as the Ukrainian crisis continues, NATO is at a time of relative unity. At present, the Ukrainian crisis seems to be entering a critical stage, coinciding with the opportunity of the NATO summit.

The two scholars also stated that the United States is intensifying efforts to promote Sweden's accession to the treaty, in order to avoid "long dreams".

"As far as NATO is concerned, Sweden's" accession "process cannot be delayed." Ye Jiang said that at first only Türkiye was firmly opposed, but as Sweden's "accession" process reached an impasse, Hungary also began to clearly express its opposition.

"Considering that NATO currently has 31 member states, if this process continues to be delayed, who can ensure that there will not be more countries jumping out to oppose it?" Yejiang said, even in the current Ukraine crisis and NATO's relative unity, there are still two countries that explicitly oppose it.

In addition, Ye Jiang stated that not only within NATO, but also within Sweden, there are different voices regarding "joining the treaty", which are only partially concealed in the context of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. However, over time, uncertainty within Sweden may also increase.

Double obstruction

Despite the strong push from the United States, Sweden's accession process is facing dual obstacles. At the end of last month, demonstrations broke out in the Swedish capital Stockholm, which further strengthened Turkey's opposition stance.

According to the Associated Press, Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on July 3 that Türkiye was not ready to approve Sweden's accession to NATO, and said that Stockholm must work harder to complete its "operation".

Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Feidan said on July 4 that Sweden's security system failed to effectively prevent some provocations, which caused security concerns and would only bring trouble to NATO, rather than enhance its strength.

Both scholars noted the differences between Sweden and Türkiye. According to the memorandum of understanding previously reached by Türkiye, Sweden and Finland, the Swedish government should no longer support the Kurdish Workers' Party, which is regarded as a terrorist organization by Türkiye.

Although Sweden has taken measures such as amending relevant laws, under the ruling of the court "supporting freedom of expression", the local police have approved many demonstrations supporting Kurds this year, which has aroused strong dissatisfaction from Türkiye.

"Given the independence of the Swedish judicial system, even if the Swedish government makes a commitment, it is difficult to easily meet Türkiye's requirements," Zhao said. This time Türkiye took an opposing position, which may also have the intention to reflect the sense of existence and the image of a regional power.

Hungary is another NATO member country that has not ratified Sweden's accession to the treaty. According to media reports, the Swedish government believes that as long as Türkiye is willing to approve Sweden's application, Hungary will approve it.

Ye Jiang noticed that Hungary had previously had disagreements with Sweden and NATO member countries, involving Hungary's position on the Ukraine crisis and the domestic judicial situation in Hungary.

For example, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szyardo has stated that the Hungarian cabinet supports Sweden's accession to NATO, but the final decision is to be made by parliament, which will inevitably consider the Swedish government's "offense" towards Hungary. Siyardo said that Swedish officials have repeatedly pointed out that Hungary is "undemocratic," but the Hungarian side does not agree with this statement. At the same time, the Hungarian side determined that their country had "sufficient reasons" to disagree with Sweden's "accession" to the treaty.

Ye Jiang also stated that Hungary's recent display of opposition may also reflect its consideration of its status as an important country in Central and Eastern Europe.

Zhao Junjie noticed that there is a difference in the level of economic development between Sweden and Hungary, indicating inequality in status. Now, the situation has evolved into Sweden seeking Hungary. Moreover, this time Türkiye and Hungary set a precedent for opposing Sweden's "accession" to the Treaty, and the two countries may still express their opposition in the future.

This autumn's engagement?

Public opinion has noticed that, like Sweden and Finland, Ukraine is also seeking to join the treaty. However, Ukraine seems to be further away from NATO.

Yejiang stated that according to regulations, Ukraine, which is in a state of armed conflict, cannot join NATO. This means that as long as the Ukrainian crisis continues, Ukraine will not be able to join the treaty.

Zhao Junjie stated that one of the triggers for the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis early last year was Ukraine's accession to NATO. At present, the prospect of Ukraine's accession to the treaty depends on the conflict situation, that is, which side can gain a greater advantage.

Although Ukraine's accession to the treaty may seem distant, there are many topics that countries need to discuss at the upcoming NATO summit.

Ye Jiang expects that in addition to Sweden's accession to the treaty, the NATO summit will also revolve around issues such as the Ukraine crisis, NATO's military deployment in the Baltic States, and the selection of NATO Secretary General.

Although NATO has recently stated that its member states have agreed to extend the term of Secretary General Stoltenberg for another year, NATO still needs to find a successor for Stoltenberg.

Zhao Junjie expects that this NATO summit will also coordinate the interests of all parties, and may even discuss the Indo Pacific strategy. At that time, it is worth paying attention to whether NATO will announce its "muscle show" military exercise and deployment plans.

Both scholars predict that member countries will communicate their differences and strive for compromise at this summit, attempting to demonstrate a united stance.

Ye Jiang expects that the possible breakthrough of this summit will be the consensus reached by all parties on Sweden's accession to the treaty in principle, and adjustments will be made through joint statements and even the development of a roadmap and timetable.

However, the specific results will depend on whether Sweden, the United States and NATO can make concessions to the satisfaction of Türkiye and Hungary. Sweden is the issue of the Kurdistan Workers Party, while the United States is the issue of F-16 arms sales. Ye Jiang noted that the US wants to "seize" Türkiye with the approval of F-16 arms sales. In terms of NATO, it depends on whether the member states will demonstrate their positions of earnestly respecting Türkiye and Hungary.

Zhao Junjie also stated that the process of Sweden's "accession" to the treaty depends on how the relevant parties handle the situation and demonstrate diplomatic skills.

However, even if the governments of Türkiye and Hungary "give the green light", Sweden's "accession" to the Treaty still needs the approval of the domestic legislative departments of both countries. According to the agenda of the Hungarian parliament, Sweden's accession to the treaty will not be discussed this week.

According to Hungarian media recently, the Hungarian parliament will enter a summer recess after a three-day special session, which means that Sweden's accession to the treaty will not be voted on until it resumes in the autumn at the earliest.

Ye Jiang predicts that if progress can be made at this summit, Sweden still has the hope of "joining the treaty" this autumn, otherwise it may be delayed for even longer.

In the long run, both scholars argue that Sweden's accession means that NATO's sphere of influence is closer to Russia's doorstep.

Ye Jiang said that this will exacerbate Russia's sense of insecurity and may even lead to Russia taking actions such as deploying weapons, thereby causing regional countries to fall into a "security dilemma".

Zhao Junjie noticed that in response to possible changes in the situation on the western front, Russia has carried out modern military reforms, enriched the northern fleet, and even strengthened its deployment on the western front.