Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's End of Exile and Return to China... Thailand marks a historic moment, with a new Prime Minister finally born. Thaksin Shinawatra's Return to China | Seta | New Prime Minister | Thailand

On August 22nd local time, the Thai parliament held a joint meeting of the upper and lower houses. The Prime Minister candidate nominated by the Thai Party, Seth Tawil, received support from more than half of the members of parliament and was elected as the new Prime Minister of Thailand.

Analysis suggests that this is the result of negotiations and compromises among various forces, especially the decision of the Thai Party and pro military parties to abandon grievances, which also reflects changes in Thai politics. It is expected that the new government will continue tradition in the field of domestic and foreign affairs, while the stability of multi-party coalition governance remains to be observed.

Meanwhile, Thailand is facing another major event - former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been in exile for over a decade, has finally returned to his home country. Analysis suggests that Thaksin's return to China will cause a stir in various sectors of Thailand, but the specific impact remains to be observed.

Seta elected

After three months of stalemate, the upper and lower houses of the Thai parliament welcomed their third Prime Minister election on the 22nd. According to the Bangkok Post, 728 members of parliament from both houses attended the meeting that day, and Seta received a total of 482 votes, of which 330 came from the lower house and 152 from the upper house.

"The election of Saita as Prime Minister this time is due to the use of various strategic tactics by the Thai party, making every effort to win and making the greatest possible compromise," said Zhou Shixin, Director of the Foreign Policy Office of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies.

On the 21st, the second largest party in the House of Commons, the Thai Party, announced plans to form a new government in partnership with 10 other political parties. This includes two political parties related to the military, namely the National Power Party led by the caretaker government's Deputy Prime Minister Bawi, which won 40 seats in the lower house elections held in May. The other is the Thai Solidarity Party, where the caretaker Prime Minister Prayut is based, won 36 seats in the May elections. Adding 141 seats for the Thai party in the lower house, this 11 party alliance holds approximately 314 seats in the lower house.

On the 21st, the leader of the Thai Party, Chong Lanan Xijiao, also stated that alliance partners have agreed to nominate real estate tycoon Saita as the new leader. Saita, who is 61 years old, was originally the co-founder and head of a large Thai real estate developer, Shangsi Rui Company. After joining the Thai party as a candidate for parliament, Saita resigned from his position in the company and transferred his shares to his family.

Previously, the Thai party had nominated the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Betongdan, as a candidate for Prime Minister. However, public opinion believes that Beidongdan's kinship with Thaksin is hindering her from gaining support from the anti Thaksin camp, and Saita, as a "new face in politics," is more favored.

Zhou Shixin said that this 11 party alliance reflects inclusivity and diversity, which helps to provide confidence for Thailand's political and social reconciliation. At the same time, pro military political parties play an important role in electing a new prime minister, and "Zimbabwe has close relationships with many members of the House of Lords."

Professor Song Qingrun from the Asia Research Department of the School of Asia at Beijing Foreign Studies University stated that the Thai Party and pro military political parties were once rivals, and even had political grievances. This time, the parties have crossed differences and broken Chen's views out of various interests.

Firstly, it is the national interest. Previously, the vacancy for the position of new prime minister had lasted for three months. The urgent task for all political parties is to form a new government as soon as possible and maintain the normal operation of the country.

Next is party interests. "At present, the distribution of seats in the House of Commons by various political parties is relatively scattered, and it is difficult for only a few political parties to reach the threshold of forming a new government," said Song Qingrun. Therefore, it is not surprising that 11 political parties form an alliance.

In addition, "these 11 political parties have the greatest common divisor on one issue, which is to maintain the authority of the royal family," said Song Qingrun. On this issue, these 11 political parties have significant differences and contradictions with the Far Progressive Party, which is also the main reason why the Far Progressive Party is excluded from the new alliance.

Both scholars have stated that given the new ruling coalition's support for the royal family, it is expected to push for moderate reform measures, and its proposed Prime Minister candidate, Seta, is more likely to win the support of the House of Lords.

Zhou Shixin also noted that the collaboration between the Thai Party and pro military political parties occurred against the backdrop of the rupture between the Thai Party and the Far Progressive Party. To win the Prime Minister election on the 22nd, partnering with pro military political parties is a more realistic option.

"The Thai party has shown a relatively flexible stance," said Zhou Shixin. In the May election, the Thai party became the second largest party in the House of Commons and gained more seats than four years ago. "For this Prime Minister election, the Thai party has high expectations and has reason to make compromises."

At the same time, "the new alliance is also the result of negotiations and compromises among various political parties," Zhou Shixin said. In addition to the policy agenda, there are also compromises in the allocation of government positions. Although the Thai party has chosen to join forces with pro military parties, the Prime Minister candidate elected by the alliance is not a representative figure of the military. Next, it is worth paying attention to whether Barbados will continue to serve as Vice Premier.

Zhou Shixin also stated that the decision made by the Thai party has both advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, this move can be described as pragmatic and is expected to increase the possibility of a candidate for the Thai Prime Minister taking office. On the other hand, this move also carries risks and may cause the Thai party to lose some public support.

The public opinion has also noticed that there is controversy over the decision to cooperate between the Thai Party and pro military political parties, which has been accused of violating election promises.

I would like to explain and apologize to the Thai party for this. An important member of the Thai Party, Betongdan, said that this is a necessary move, especially considering that the Thai Party failed to achieve a major victory in the May elections.

Seta also expressed similar views. He said that the current situation is different from during the election period, "we must be more realistic.".

Chong Lanan stated that the reason for making this decision is that the party and its alliance partners believe that solving the problems facing the country is urgent, including improving the economy and ending political differences.

Chong Lanan also stated that this alliance agrees to support the Thai party's agenda on boosting the economy, raising the minimum wage, and ending forced conscription. The alliance will also strive to amend the constitution to make the country "more democratic" while not touching on the crime of blasphemy against the monarch.

The BBC commented on the compromise among all parties, stating that for pro military parties, the Far Progressive Party's threat to the monarchy outweighs its long-standing feud with the Sinawa family. For the Thai party, re entering the government and obtaining relevant guarantees from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra after his return is more important than concerns about the party's reputation.

Both scholars predict that the new Thai government will continue its tradition in the field of domestic and foreign affairs. Zhou Shixin explained that considering Seta's short political participation time, he is expected to rely more on the team.

In the field of domestic affairs, both scholars predict that the new government will attach great importance to revitalizing the economy, especially in the context of the poor economic situation both domestically and internationally in Thailand. Seta is more familiar with commercial and economic affairs.

Song Qingrun also stated that bridging social differences will be a priority for the new government. Especially considering that the Thai party has turned against the Far Progressive Party, which holds 151 seats as the largest party in the House of Commons and still has a group of supporters.

In the field of diplomacy, Song Qingrun expects that the new government will continue to attach importance to ASEAN and major country diplomacy. The two scholars also expect that China Thailand relations will continue to maintain a friendly development momentum.

The two scholars also stated that given the intense political competition in Thailand, the 11 parties have historical grievances and different interests, and the stability of the new government needs to be observed.

"Although this has achieved a relatively good result for the Thai party, which helps to inject confidence into Thailand's political stability, the ruling coalition is hard to say to rest assured." Zhou Shixin said, "When it comes to job allocation, there may be new games among all parties." At that time, the outside world will see more clearly whether the Thai party has won a real victory. ".

Thaksin returned to China

While the outside world is paying attention to the election of Thailand's new prime minister, another major event is difficult not to attract attention.

"Tomorrow morning at 9 o'clock, I hope to be allowed to return to the land of Thailand to live and breathe with the Thai people," former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been in exile for more than ten years, said on social media on the 21st.

On August 22nd local time, Thaksin arrived at Bangkok's Langman Airport by plane and was subsequently arrested by the police and taken to the Supreme Court for sentencing. After reading his sentence of 8 years imprisonment for three charges in Thailand's Supreme Court, he was sent to a prison in Bangkok to serve his sentence.

The Supreme Court issued a statement on the same day, stating that Thaksin was sentenced to a total of 10 years in prison for corruption and other charges, with some sentences planned to be executed simultaneously, and the actual sentence served was 8 years. The Thai Prison Authority stated that the medical examination results showed that the 74 year old Thaksin had health problems in areas such as heart, lungs, and blood pressure, making him a vulnerable group and requiring solitary confinement. The prison has made arrangements for Thaksin's personal safety, visits to relatives and friends, and medical examinations.

The public opinion generally believes that the return of 74 year old Thaksin after more than ten years of exile is a historic and dramatic scene in Thailand. In this Southeast Asian country with a population of nearly 70 million, Thaksin is both loved and disliked. The BBC calls him one of the most controversial figures in Thai history.

In 2001, telecommunications tycoon Thaksin underwent a transformation and won the election with an overwhelming advantage based on grassroots beliefs, becoming prime minister. In the following decade, the Shinawatra family produced three prime ministers, making a legendary appearance in Thai politics. The current Thai Party is derived from the former ruling party, the Thai Aitai Party, founded by Thaksin.

However, with the rise of the Shinawatra family, their differences and contradictions with conservative forces have become increasingly prominent. In 2006, the Thaksin administration was overthrown by a military coup. Except for a brief return to foreign countries in 2008, Thaksin has been in long-term exile overseas. Thaksin insists that the criminal charges against him are aimed at preventing him from taking power. For many years, Thaksin has repeatedly expressed plans to return to China, but has repeatedly failed to achieve them. And this time, Thaksin seems to have more determination and confidence.

Song Qingrun noticed that at the time of Thaksin's return to China, Thailand was facing a relatively clear outcome in a prime minister election and a new government was expected to emerge.

Reuters and other media reported that Thaksin's return to China at this time is closely related to the alliance between the Thai Party and pro military political parties. He believes that the Thai party may even have reached behind the scenes deals with pro military parties.

"For Thai politics, Thaksin's return to China can be said to have stirred up thousands of waves with just one stone," said Song Qingrun. Thaksin still has a significant influence, as evidenced by the enthusiasm of his supporters for his return to China and the police's readiness.

"Thaksin knows what he will face when he returns to his home country," Zhou Shixin said. "His future may change with changes in Thailand's political situation."

When it comes to the potential impact of Thaksin's return to China, Zhou Shixin said that regardless of whether he carries out promotional activities after his return, the former prime minister's return to China is already influential and is expected to boost the confidence of supporters of the Thai party to a certain extent. In addition, given Thaksin's experience as a police officer and the police background of some members of the House of Lords, his return to China will help enhance the chances of winning for the Thai party in the Prime Minister's election on the 22nd.

Song Qingrun predicts that compared to the period of overseas exile, Thaksin Shinawatra's return to Thailand will have a more practical impact on Thai politics, "which may have a direct or indirect impact on the Thai party and even the new government."

Song Qingrun also stated that the specific performance of Thaksin's influence on Thai politics after his return to China remains to be observed. "After more than ten years of exile, it remains to be seen whether Thaksin will have a positive or negative impact, whether it will promote stability or cause waves."