What do you want to talk to Biden about?, Depth | Sunak's visit to the United States and special relationship with the United Kingdom | Sunak's visit to the United States

British Prime Minister Sunak will visit the United States from the 7th to the 8th, marking his first official visit to the United States since taking office. During this period, he will hold a meeting with US President Biden at the White House to discuss issues such as the Ukrainian crisis, bilateral economic relations, and the situation in Northern Ireland. The public opinion believes that Sunak's trip aims to deepen the special relationship between the UK and the US in the context of international changes, but the differences between the two sides in areas such as trade are difficult to bridge.

"The closest ally"

Sunak stated in March that he had accepted Biden's invitation to visit Washington in June. At that time, Sunak was meeting with Biden and Australian Prime Minister Albanese at the San Diego Naval Base in California, USA, and announced a trilateral nuclear submarine cooperation plan.

At that time, Sunak and Biden seemed to get along well. "Welcome back to California," Biden said, referring to Sunak, who had an elite and wealthy image and graduated from Stanford University, and had a "home" in California.

A month later, the two met again. In April, Biden went to Northern Ireland and Ireland to participate in the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Belfast Agreement. However, Biden's visit has raised some doubts within the UK about whether the US president is dismissive of Britain. At that time, most of Biden's itinerary was scheduled in Ireland, and he briefly stayed in Northern Ireland and met with Sunak in the absence of the planned coronation ceremony of the British king. This has led critics to claim that Biden's contact with Sunak is limited. Last month, Biden also stated that his trip was to ensure that "the British did not act recklessly on the issue of Northern Ireland.". In this context, the White House has to come forward to clarify that Biden is "not against Britain".

A month later, Sunak and Biden met again during the G7 summit held in Hiroshima, Japan. Last month, Sunak also hosted Biden's wife Gill in Downing Street to attend the coronation ceremony of the king.

The Financial Times reported that, combined with last year's meeting during the G20 Bali Summit, Sunak will meet with Biden for the fifth time, marking his first official visit to the United States in eight months as Prime Minister.

Both sides released relevant news at the end of last month. The White House stated that it looks forward to further deepening the close partnership between the United States and Britain through this trip.

Sunak said before his departure, "The United States is our closest ally. We are each other's preferred partner in protecting people's security and developing the economy. That's why it's so important for the British Prime Minister and the US President to establish a close and honest relationship. On every global issue, you will see us working together."

Downing Street also emphasized that Sunak is the prime minister who has had the most "continuous contact" with the US President in recent years. According to the plan, Sunak and Biden will meet again next month at the NATO summit in Lithuania. The spokesperson for the British Prime Minister said that Sunak's visit to the United States will lay the foundation for the successful hosting of the NATO summit.

According to reports, Biden accepted an invitation from King Charles III of England in April and is expected to make a state visit to the UK.

Some topics are not discussed

It is reported that after arriving in Washington, Sunak will first meet with members of the US Congress and business leaders. The public opinion believes that the UK is seeking to establish closer economic ties with the US, especially considering the bleak prospects of a free trade agreement between the UK and the US.

Sunak also plans to participate in the second "Anglo American Friendship Day" event on the 7th to commemorate the 238th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and the United States, including watching a baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the Arizona Diamondbacks. At that time, the event will be held amidst lively flying performances and national singing, and Sunak may also score the first goal.

According to the Telegraph, although this is a work visit, Sunak will be treated as a state guest - staying at the Blair State Guesthouse.

In the latter half of this trip, Sunak will go to the White House and meet with Biden in the Oval Office. The White House said that the two leaders will discuss a series of global issues based on their recent contacts, including support for Ukraine, strengthening energy security, and addressing the climate crisis.

"As we face common economic and national security challenges, the President and Prime Minister will discuss how to continue strengthening our economic relations." The White House said that the two leaders will also examine the situation in Northern Ireland, as both sides are committed to upholding the Belfast Agreement.

Since last year, the Democratic Unity Party of Northern Ireland has criticized the UK government and the EU for signing the Northern Ireland Protocol on Brexit, and expressed dissatisfaction by refusing to support the local parliament. The current stalemate is still ongoing. The Biden administration is calling on the local political situation to restore stability as soon as possible.

On the UK side, Prime Minister Spokesperson Max Bryan stated that this visit will be an opportunity to strengthen the level of cooperation between the two leaders in addressing economic challenges based on recent discussions. These challenges are related to our future, including ensuring supply chain stability and transitioning to a zero carbon economy. In addition, both sides will also discuss support for Ukraine.

Reuters reported that the relationship between the UK and the US is mainly based on close defense, intelligence, economic, and cultural ties, and both sides are basically in sync in supporting Ukraine. Recently, Biden has also relaxed his stance and turned to supporting advanced fighter jets to aid Ukraine. He needs to discuss follow-up matters with his allies.

Yuan Zheng, Deputy Director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noticed that Sunak's visit to the United States coincided with Ukraine's announcement of a counterattack. It can be expected that the leaders of the UK and the US will coordinate their positions on the Ukrainian crisis, ensuring that the US and the West can continue to provide the assistance needed by Ukraine.

"Compared to other countries, the United States and the United Kingdom are easier to coordinate their positions because their demands and positions are more similar." Yuan Zheng said that in providing military assistance to Ukraine, "the United Kingdom is following closely and even moving forward."

Ye Jiang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and advisor to the Shanghai European Society, also expects that both sides will focus on coordinating their positions on the Ukrainian crisis. In addition, against the backdrop of some politicians in the United States and Europe hyping up the "risk reduction" rhetoric, it is worth paying attention to whether the summit between the UK and the US will involve the issue of China, and how the two countries will influence each other on issues related to China.

In terms of strategic defense, it is expected that Sunak will also recommend British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to Biden as the next NATO Secretary General and attempt to gain Biden's support. The current NATO Secretary General, Stoltenberg, will step down at the end of September, and his successor is expected to be selected at the NATO summit next month, but the "successor" is not yet clear. It is said that many NATO officials hope to change decades of tradition and choose a woman or a candidate from Eastern Europe.

In terms of economy and trade, Brian stated that the UK is currently not seeking a free trade agreement with the United States, but will focus on reducing trade barriers through other means. Bloomberg stated that this position indicates that the UK government has accepted reality - after Biden clearly stated that the US UK free trade agreement is not his priority, the prospects for this agreement are bleak. This is also seen as a dark cloud looming over the summit between the UK and the US.

Ye Jiang noticed that supporters of Brexit in the UK once claimed that a major benefit of Brexit was the freedom to negotiate free trade agreements with other countries. Given that the trade volume between the UK and the US accounts for approximately 16.6% of the UK's total trade volume, the US is undoubtedly an important target.

Since former British Prime Minister Johnson took office, Britain has been eager to reach a free trade agreement with the United States. During the presidency of former US President Trump, negotiations made some progress, but reached a deadlock after Biden took office.

Yuan Zheng stated that many factors have made it difficult for the UK and the US to reach a free trade agreement at present. Firstly, "In recent years, there has been a rise in opposition to the process of globalization and free trade within the United States, particularly within the Democratic Party. As a fundamental component of the Democratic Party, the working class is more averse to globalization and free trade."

At present, the United States is entering the 2024 election cycle, and Biden has also initiated a re-election campaign, so Biden has no reason to act recklessly on the issue of free trade. Both scholars have stated that even if the Biden administration intends to reach a free trade agreement with the UK, it is expected to wait until the election results are announced.

Secondly, the current US economy is still not very prosperous, and if the US signs a free trade agreement with the UK, it needs to carefully calculate what benefits the US can offer and gain.

In addition, in recent years, the phenomenon of political polarization within the United States has intensified, making it increasingly difficult for all parties to reach consensus.

Ye Jiang also noticed that the Biden administration seems to believe that free trade is not beneficial to its own interests, and therefore has a cold attitude towards the Anglo American Free Trade Agreement. But while accepting reality, Britain is also taking the initiative to break through one by one. "The British also seized the characteristic of the American political system - that American states have greater power."

It is reported that the UK has reached economic and trade agreements with North Carolina, South Carolina, and Indiana, and is currently negotiating with Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, and California.

Brian also stated that the UK will take "targeted" measures to "eliminate the remaining few obstacles". There are also reports that the UK may engage in trade negotiations on specific commodities such as Scottish whisky, in an effort to obtain a "just no name" Anglo American free trade agreement.

In terms of economy and trade, insiders from Downing Street have also stated that Sunak will not make a big fuss about the Biden administration's inflation reduction bill in Washington, despite criticism from US allies for its protectionist nature, which includes a large amount of domestic subsidies.

However, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves from the UK's main opposition party, Labour, visited the US last month to discuss Labour's economic plans, praising the Inflation Reduction Act for "rebuilding US economic security" and stating that criticism of the bill by UK government ministers has damaged Anglo American relations. In this context, it is expected that Sunak will adopt a more gentle tone on relevant issues.

In addition, Sunak also confirmed before leaving that he will discuss artificial intelligence technology and the risks it brings with Biden. Recently, several well-known figures in the artificial intelligence industry have warned that this technology poses a "risk" of human extinction, comparable to "epidemics and nuclear wars.". Currently, the UK government's stance on this advanced technology is becoming increasingly cautious.

There are also reports that Sunak hopes to persuade Biden that the UK should and can play a leading role in coordinating the regulation of artificial intelligence in various countries. Especially against the backdrop of Brexit and political turmoil in the UK, Sunak hopes to prove that the UK remains an important player on the world stage. However, it is reported that the United States and the European Union have engaged in discussions on the regulation of artificial intelligence. It remains to be seen whether Sunak can achieve his wish.

Unequal relationships

Former British Ambassador to the United States, Kim Darlock, believes that Sunak will arrive in the United States with some heavy political burdens, which will make the relationship between Britain and the United States more complex.

"I have never met a Democrat who believes that Brexit is a good idea," said Darlock. "They hate Brexit because they feel it goes against the trend of world history and deprives them of the main channel to enter the European Union."

But he added that in terms of providing military support to Ukraine, Britain has made more contributions than other European countries, which has brought the two countries closer together.

The Financial Times also wrote that the cooperation between the UK, the US, and Australia on nuclear submarines has also brought the UK US relationship closer, and it is said that Biden attaches great importance to this cooperation.

Yuan Zheng stated that Sunak's expectations for this trip can be viewed from two perspectives. On the one hand, this trip is expected to help the UK and the US communicate and promote cooperation on important issues. On the other hand, it remains to be seen whether there will be substantial changes in the relationship between the UK and the US due to a single visit. After all, with less than a year in office, Sunak's influence is relatively limited, and the Prime Minister's prestige still needs to be strengthened.

Yejiang expects that Sunak and Biden will issue a joint statement after the meeting, expressing their stance on the Ukrainian crisis. The Biden administration may also hope that the UK clarifies its position on the North Ireland issue in the statement.

When it comes to the direction of the relationship between the UK and the US, Ye Jiang said, "It is undeniable that the relationship between the UK and the US is not equal, and after Brexit, the UK needs the US even more." Even if the US does not "take over" in the matter of the free trade agreement, the UK will not "turn against" the US as a result. On the other hand, when dealing with China Russia issues, the United States also needs to promote the special relationship between the United States and the United States, as well as the transatlantic alliance.

"Overall, this summit between the UK and the US will focus on how the two countries can strengthen their special relationship in today's international situation." Ye Jiang said that the UK hopes to demonstrate that the UK US relationship remains strong.