Can the United States' outdated Middle East strategy be effective?, Depth | Antony Blinken Visits Saudi Arabia to Repair Relations US Middle East Strategy | Visit Saudi Arabia to Repair Relations | Antony Blinken|

Amidst the wave of reconciliation in the Middle East, US diplomatic and security officials have also frequently visited Saudi Arabia to gain a sense of presence. From June 6, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia, and he will be the second US senior official to visit Saudi Arabia in a month. According to public opinion, Antony Blinken's visit bears the "heavy responsibility" of stabilizing relations with Saudi Arabia and emphasizing the presence of the United States in the region. However, analysts believe that with the increasing strategic autonomy of Middle Eastern oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, it may be difficult for the United States to achieve results if it continues to attempt to repair its relationship with an outdated mindset and strategy.

Another high-ranking official visit

The US State Department has previously announced that Antony Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia from June 6 to 8 to discuss the "strategic cooperation in regional and global affairs" between the US and Saudi Arabia, as well as a series of bilateral affairs, including economic and security cooperation.

During his visit, Antony Blinken will attend the ministerial meeting of the United States Gulf Arab States Cooperation Council to discuss cooperation between the United States and GCC countries in security, stability, economy and other aspects of the Middle East.

In addition, public opinion believes that combating the extremist organization "Islamic State", mediating the conflicts in Sudan and Yemen, and promoting the improvement of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will also be included in the agenda of Antony Blinken's visit.

Following the visit of CIA Director Burns in early April and the visit of National Security Affairs Assistant Sullivan of the US President in early May, Antony Blinken is the third senior US official to visit Saudi Arabia recently.

At the time when senior US officials came to Saudi Arabia to "brush off the sense of existence", the multiple backgrounds of this visit also cast a shadow on Antony Blinken's visit.

On the one hand, there have been cracks in the alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia in recent years. After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Saudi Arabia refused to take sides and did not comply with the US's demand to lower crude oil prices. Instead, it decided to reduce production, causing displeasure from the US.

Just as Antony Blinken was about to leave, the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non OPEC oil producing countries held on June 4 decided to extend the production reduction agreement reached previously to 2024. Saudi Arabia also announced that it will reduce daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in July, causing oil prices to rise in response.

On the other hand, since March this year, China has successfully facilitated dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing, and after restoring diplomatic relations thereafter, the Middle East has entered a fast lane of "peace and reconciliation", with a series of changes that are overwhelming.

Syria, which is not only hostile to the United States, has recently announced its return to the Arab family. The latest developments also show that Arab countries still hope to engage in maritime military cooperation with Iran.

According to Iranian media reports on the 3rd, Iran plans to form a naval alliance with countries along the northern Indian Ocean coast such as Saudi Arabia to ensure regional peace and stability. Prior to this, the United Arab Emirates announced on May 31 that it had withdrawn from the United States led joint maritime force established in 2001 two months ago. This has also made the US military exclaim "I can't understand".

What is the purpose?

Under multiple backgrounds, what are the "heavy responsibilities" of Antony Blinken's trip?

In this regard, some analysts believe that with the deepening of differences and suspicions between the United States and Saudi Arabia in recent years, the fundamental purpose of this visit is to stabilize relations with Saudi Arabia and to prevent regional "reconciliation" and counter the influence of China and Russia in the region.

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, believes that Antony Blinken's visit is expected to involve multiple bilateral and multilateral issues, including cooperation with Saudi Arabia to mediate the conflict in Sudan, and to promote the improvement and even normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

But these are just surface issues. Ding Long said that basically, from Burns, Sullivan to Antony Blinken, the United States sent three senior generals to Saudi Arabia in succession to achieve two goals.

Firstly, the United States is eager to prevent rapid geopolitical changes in the Middle East. The changes from Saudi Arabia's resumption of diplomatic relations with Iran to Syria's return to the Arab League are inconsistent with US policies in the Middle East and will also harm US interests in the Middle East, making it restless.

Secondly, the United States wants to seize Saudi Arabia, the most important ally in the Middle East region. Saudi Arabia is not only an oil rich country, but also a religious holy land. Therefore, the United States attempts to salvage its alliance system in the Middle East as a whole by repairing its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Sun Degang, director and researcher of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, also believes that after US President Biden took office, the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia faced significant challenges. The value diplomacy of the United States regards Saudi Arabia as an alternative, while Saudi Arabia adheres to strategic autonomy and deviates from the trajectory set by the United States. Therefore, the United States is trying to firmly hold onto Saudi Arabia, hoping that Saudi Arabia will prioritize its relationship with the United States and avoid Saudi Arabia gradually distancing itself from the United States and seeking equal distance diplomacy among major powers.

Sun Degang said that specifically, Antony Blinken's visit to Saudi Arabia has several priorities:

In terms of energy, Antony Blinken hoped that Saudi Arabia and the United States would keep pace and not "ride on the wall" between Russia and Ukraine, so as to prevent Saudi Arabia and Russia from getting closer under the framework of "OPEC+".

On the regional front, the United States hopes to avoid further strengthening of Saudi Arabia's relationship with Iran after the Middle East's "peace resolution". Saudi Arabia wants to withdraw from the US led maritime power alliance and form a new maritime military alliance with countries such as Iran, India, and Pakistan, which the US strongly opposes.

In terms of infrastructure, promoting large-scale infrastructure construction projects between the United States, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia is also expected to be a key issue. When Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia last month, he proposed building a Middle East Railway Construction Alliance, connecting Arab countries in the Middle East through a railway network, and connecting to India through the waterways of ports in the region. Sun Degang pointed out that the United States led the infrastructure alliance in the Middle East in essence to compete with China's "the Belt and Road" initiative.

In addition, Sun Degang also said that Antony Blinken's trip may also be a "front stop" for Biden. At the end of this year, Biden is expected to attend the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. It is worth noting whether he will visit Saudi Arabia at that time.

Can the "outdated" strategy be effective?

The frequent presence of senior officials in the Biden administration in the Middle East shows that the United States still values the Middle East and wants to make a difference.

Assistant Secretary of State for Arab Peninsula Affairs, Deputy Secretary of State Daniel Benem, recently claimed that the United States needs to ensure that the Middle East understands that the United States plays an important role in the region and will continue to stay there.

Ding Long said that although the United States claims to shrink its strategy from the Middle East, this frequent visit indicates that the United States is "willing to go or stay" in the Middle East, which puts the United States in an awkward and contradictory situation. "Since the Cold War, the Middle East has been the region where the United States has invested the most in diplomacy and security, and it is also the region where the United States' unipolar hegemony is most prominent. Therefore, the United States is not willing to easily give up its influence and long-standing alliance system in the Middle East, and urgently hopes to change its momentum."

However, analysts point out that the recent developments in the region have completely exceeded the control of the United States.

Ding Long believes that after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Saudi Arabia and other Middle East oil producing countries have significantly increased their international status, leading to increased strategic autonomy and flexibility, which not only expands diplomatic space, but also makes diplomatic skills more mature.

In terms of energy, Saudi Arabia has close cooperation with Russia and has made multiple production reduction decisions despite the demands of the United States. In terms of geopolitics, Saudi Arabia and other allies have not chosen sides between Russia and Ukraine, and their strategic cooperation with China in various fields such as politics, economy and trade, diplomacy, and energy is constantly improving. "This reflects the trend of blindly obeying and following the United States, which is no longer in line with the diversified interests of Gulf oil producing countries," Ding Long said.

"There is a saying that the decline of US global hegemony in the 21st century began in the Middle East. Its important manifestation is that US Middle Eastern allies are no longer just following the lead of the US." Sun Degang said that there are significant differences between the US and Saudi Arabia on Syria's return to the Arab League and Saudi Arabia's strategic reconciliation with Iran, which makes the US very anxious. The Arab allies of the United States, represented by Saudi Arabia, are no longer satisfied with serving as America's "little brothers", but demand dialogue with major powers and equal treatment.

At the same time, the outdated Middle East strategy of the United States has put it in a difficult situation. If the United States continues to attempt to repair relations with outdated thinking and strategy, it may be difficult to achieve results.

Ding Long said that on the one hand, the United States' Middle East strategy is logically contradictory. As the United States no longer needs Middle Eastern oil and both sides become competitors in energy, the long-term pillar of the US Saudi Arabia relationship of "oil for security" has been shaken. The United States is attempting to shrink its strategy from the Middle East, which means it will no longer continue to meet the security needs of its allies, but at the same time, it wants to maintain control and influence over the Middle East. These two goals are contradictory and cannot be reconciled.

On the other hand, the United States' Middle East policy has fallen far behind the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. "The old thinking and strategy of the United States have become outdated in the Middle East," Ding Long said.

Ding Long believes that the perspective of the United States on the Middle East has fallen into a misunderstanding, and it is still viewing the Middle East as a middle ground for major power competition, attempting to drive away and exclude Chinese forces in the Middle East. In addition, compared to Middle Eastern countries that have prioritized reconciliation and development in recent years, showing a trend of "de security", the United States is still generalizing the Middle East issue into a security issue, which has resulted in little effectiveness in its diplomacy in the Middle East, giving people a feeling of "punching cotton".

Sun Degang believes that Saudi Arabia hopes that the United States can remove its colored glasses on values, respect its strategic autonomy, and achieve the technical support in high-tech and new energy fields that Biden promised during his visit to Saudi Arabia last year. But if the United States continues to uphold the banner of "value diplomacy", still regards the Gulf region as its backyard, sees allies such as Saudi Arabia as "second-class citizens", and lacks sincerity in providing assistance in the high-tech field, it may be difficult for the relationship between the two sides to recover.