Long-term structural reform policies need to be accompanied by cyclical adjustment policies. Academy of Social Sciences: GDP annual growth target will be achieved
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 18th. According to preliminary calculations, in the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP was 91.3027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. In the third quarter, GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning that as long as the growth rate exceeds 4.4% in the fourth quarter, the expected target of about 5% for the whole year can be achieved. "From this perspective, we are very confident that we can achieve the expected goals for the whole year."
Coincidentally, the "Macroeconomic Blue Book: China's Economic Growth Report" released today by the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that since 2023, my country's economy has generally entered the track of recovery, with the total volume reaching new highs and the structure continuing to be optimized. As measures to stabilize growth continue to be stepped up, the reforms of various systems and mechanisms that affect economic growth and the expectations of market entities will be accelerated. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to be 5%, which will successfully complete the GDP growth of 5% proposed in the "Government Work Report" at the beginning of the year. % target.
The blue book analyzes the total economic volume and the proportion of the three industries, and points out that economic recovery mainly comes from the restoration of the service industry, benefiting from the gradual return of the service industry to the right track.
On September 30, data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in September, the manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. This is the fourth consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI index has rebounded, and has returned to the balance line of prosperity and contraction after a lapse of five months. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI of 11 industries was above the critical point, 2 more than in August, and the manufacturing boom has expanded. Sheng Laiyun said that this reflects the recovery and improvement of people's confidence in China's economy.
The blue book also pointed out that although the road to domestic economic recovery has been established, the road to recovery needs to cultivate upward expectations and boost the consumer confidence and investment confidence of market entities. While short-term cyclical adjustment policy measures are being closely implemented, long-term structural reform policies also need to be followed. On the one hand, the risk appetite of market entities has declined, resulting in conservative investment and cautious consumption, which in turn has made the recovery of the consumer market unclear and positive changes in the real estate market fleeting, which is not conducive to the formation of a good investment situation for private enterprises. It is also necessary to implement more precise and powerful institutional reforms that can take into account both the short and long term, cultivate the "vitality" and "confidence" to promote long-term economic improvement, and consolidate the upward trend of recovery. On the other hand, the economic growth of overseas markets, especially developed countries, has slowed down and international demand has been affected. Overseas industrial chains have returned to normal, reducing foreign markets' dependence on Chinese imports to a certain extent. The United States continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation, but gradually higher interest rates will undoubtedly disrupt consumption and investment, which will have a negative impact on China's foreign demand.
