Today's data selection: The price of physical gold hits a multi-year high; there is no winner in the price war between car companies
In March 2023, Citroën, a subsidiary of Hubei Dongfeng Shenlong, launched the first shot of an industry price war through a large price reduction; in the following two months, various friends could not help but start to join; from June to July, with the new car Due to the intensive launch and delivery of new cars, the short-term supply of new cars seems to have eased slightly at first glance. Unexpectedly, the price war returned in August, with many car companies participating in price reductions through official reductions, new car discounts, terminal profits, etc. In the army, many new cars have lowered their "prices" when they are publicly priced; the price war became more fierce in September, with a larger scale and a larger drop.
Is there really a winner in this protracted car price war? In the short term, exchanging price for volume can help various auto companies clear inventory, but in the long term, price wars are more likely to damage corporate brands, overdraw consumer demand in advance, and create expectations of waiting and watching. For the auto industry as a whole, The consumption environment will be more difficult.
Data shows that from January to May this year, the cumulative sales of Shenlong Motors were 36,560 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%. The monthly sales were 5,265 vehicles, 5,425 vehicles, 10,100 vehicles, 7,766 vehicles, and 8,004 vehicles respectively. Except for March, the sales exceeded 10,000 vehicles. In addition, the remaining monthly sales are still around a few thousand units. However, this achievement is already quite impressive among similar models. According to analysis, it may be that on the one hand, the price has dropped enough, and the exposure effect of a large amount of media attention has increased the attention and traffic, and the excess has been converted into consumption. By.
Why do most sales boosts have a short-lived effect, and sales plummet in April? This is the side effect of a price war. The short-term stimulus did boost the sales of some car companies in March, but the overall weakness of the consumer market cannot be changed in a short time. In addition, the sharp price plunge also aggravated consumers' wait-and-see mood, which in turn led to a cliff-like drop in sales in April.
The research report pointed out that in the first quarter of 2023, based on the general pressure on sales and large discounts, the gross profit margins of various car companies were generally under pressure; in the second quarter, the gross profit margin performance was differentiated from the previous quarter. The main reason for the rise in gross profit margins of car companies such as Lideal, GAC, BYD, and Great Wall is the significant scale effect of sales volume and the improvement of product structure; the main reason for the month-on-month decline in gross profit margins of car companies such as Xpeng and Changan is the increase in terminal discounts.
3.189 million, 94,000, 115.11 billion...Feel the vitality of economic development from the data
Data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that from January to September 2023, the added value of my country's computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.4 percentage points from the first half of the year. In terms of product output, solar cell output was 384 GW, a year-on-year increase of 63.2%. In addition, exports of some electronic information manufacturing products bucked the trend and grew. Since 2023, TV exports have been improving. From January to September, the export value increased by 15.1% year-on-year. Lithium-ion batteries and solar cells still maintain a growth trend. From January to September, the export value increased by 48% and 5.1% respectively year-on-year.
2023 is the final year of the "5G Application Sail Action Plan". According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of September 2023, the total number of 5G base stations in my country has reached 3.189 million, covering all prefecture-level cities and counties, and the number of 5G base stations per 10,000 people has reached 22.6. More than 90% of 5G base stations are co-constructed and shared, and 5G networks are accelerating the development of intensive, efficient, green and low-carbon. 5G industry applications have been integrated into 67 major categories of the national economy, with more than 94,000 application cases.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange released my country's third quarter foreign exchange data on October 20. As of October 19, the RMB against a basket of currencies index announced by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center increased by 3.0% from the end of the second quarter. my country's economic stabilization policy continues to be effective and is gradually taking effect. The RMB exchange rate has depreciated slightly against the US dollar and appreciated against major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen. The RMB exchange rate performed steadily among global currencies.
Continuous surge! The price of physical gold has reached a multi-year high, have you made a lot of money from buying it during the National Day?
Driven by strong risk aversion, international gold prices have continued to rise recently. On October 20, London spot gold once hit a high of 1,997.16 US dollars per ounce, just one step away from the 2,000 US dollars per ounce mark. At the same time, the retail price of domestic physical gold has also reached its highest point in many years. Wind data shows that as of October 20, the gold quotations of many well-known gold jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chow Sang Sang have soared to new highs in many years. Take Chow Sang Sang as an example. On October 20, Chow Sang Sang’s gold price was 614 yuan/gram, setting a new high within the statistical scope.
Behind the recent continuous rise in domestic gold prices is global investors' "bets" on gold amid risk aversion. Jiang Shu, general manager of the Precious Metals Industry Department of Shanghai Shanjin Industrial Development Co., Ltd., told reporters that the recent rapid rise in gold prices began with a "technical rebound" after the gold price plummeted during the National Day holiday, and accelerated with the outbreak and escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. . "The risk of gold price fluctuations in the future is closely related to the progress of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In the short term, if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict eases, the decline in risk aversion will cause the gold price to fall quickly. In the medium term, if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict expands and oil prices soar, The level of U.S. inflation will increase, which will lead to a longer-than-expected continuation of U.S. interest rate hikes, which will have a negative impact on gold prices," Jiang Shu said.
Not long ago, the Federal Reserve hinted that it might pause raising interest rates again in November, but it also pointed out the uncertainties and risks of monetary policy, including the recent rise in geopolitical risks.
The major economic data released by the United States in the past week still performed well. Retail sales increased by 0.7% month-on-month, which did not cool down as expected. At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims dropped below 200,000 for the first time since January this year. The consumer and job markets reflect that U.S. household demand remains resilient and the economy shows no signs of turning a corner.
This also means that the Fed may need to take more measures to achieve the purpose of lowering inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Economic Club of New York reserved policy options for continued tightening. "We are concerned about the latest data on economic growth and the resilience of labor demand, which may put inflation progress at risk and thus favor further interest rate increases."
Powell believes that achieving the inflation target may require a period of below-trend growth and further softening of labor market conditions. When talking about U.S. Treasury yields, which have attracted recent attention, Powell said they were not driven by rising inflation or expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, saying he was assessing the tightening of financial conditions caused by yields.
Schwartz, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in an interview with China Business News that from the standpoint of Fed officials, recent trends in the U.S. bond market have alleviated some of the pressure on them at the next meeting, "but the Fed has not released "Any sign of a longer-term pause as economic data continues to look hot."
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has killed more than 6,000 people on both sides
The Palestinian Ministry of Health stated on the 22nd that in this round of conflicts, 4,651 Palestinians have died and more than 14,000 others have been injured. According to Israeli media citing the Israeli Ministry of Health, at least 1,400 Israelis have died in this round of conflicts. A spokesman for the Gaza Strip's health department said today that the fuel needed to maintain the operation of the Gaza Strip's medical and health system has been exhausted. The medical relief supplies that entered the Gaza Strip through the Rafah port on the 21st were far from enough to meet the needs, and the current mechanism for providing assistance was unable to bring any substantial changes to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. The Gaza Strip relies on Israeli supplies for about two-thirds of its electricity. Israeli Energy Minister Katz announced on the 7th that in response to the conflict between Hamas and Israel, he had asked the Israeli Electric Power Company to cut off power supply to the Gaza Strip, which forced the medical and health system in the Gaza Strip to rely on fuel for power generation. to maintain operation.
