Today's data selection: International oil prices have plummeted strangely for two days; the number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing has reached a new high
Oil prices plummeted for two days! what happened?
U.S. bond yields "shaked" the global market. Saudi Arabia and Russia extended production cuts until the end of the year as scheduled, but international oil prices experienced a strange plunge. After briefly rising on Tuesday, international oil prices plunged strangely on Wednesday and Thursday. WTI crude oil fell 5.6% on Wednesday, its largest one-day drop since September 2022. Brent crude oil fell 5.6% on Wednesday to close at $85.81 per barrel, the biggest drop since August 2022. Last week, Brent crude oil was close to the $100 mark. This downward momentum continued on Thursday, with WTI crude oil closing down 2.27% at $82.31 per barrel, and Brent crude oil closing at $84.07 per barrel, down 2.03%.
Regarding the strange plunge in international oil prices on Wednesday and Thursday, UBS analyst Catherine Gordon listed three major possible disturbance factors.
Gordon said that demand for crude oil in the United States is currently very unstable. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 6.481 million barrels last week, the highest increase since January 2022, and an increase of 300,000 barrels is expected. The four-week average of EIA gasoline demand hit a seasonal low since 1998. This, combined with recent weakness in refining profits, has intensified market concerns about demand.
At the same time, the market is very crowded with long crude oil positions. The current allocation of CTA funds to crude oil has risen to the highest level since 2018. According to media statistics, overseas fund managers posted net sales of the six most important oil-related contracts last week for the first time in four weeks.
Rumors of large-scale political agreement negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the United States have also heightened market concerns. Investors are worried that improved relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States may affect the prospects for Saudi Arabia and Russia to jointly reduce production in the future, and the current Saudi policy of "artificially creating" market shortages may change in the future.
International food price index remained generally stable in September
The latest report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on the 6th showed that the international food price index generally remained stable in September, with declines in vegetable oil, dairy and meat price indexes offsetting significant increases in sugar and corn prices. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities. In September this year, the price index averaged 121.5 points, while the index in August was 121.4 points. Compared with the same period last year, the price index in September fell by 10.7% and fell by 24.0% from the historical peak in March 2022.
The cereal price index rose 1.0% month-on-month in September, mainly driven by a 7.0% increase in international corn prices. Corn prices are higher due to several factors, including strong demand for supplies from Brazil, slower sales by Argentinian farmers and higher shipping costs due to lower water levels in the U.S. Mississippi River. International wheat prices fell 1.6% month-on-month, which can be mainly attributed to Russia's improved production prospects and sufficient supply. At the same time, due to generally sluggish import demand, the rice price index fell slightly by 0.5% month-on-month. The vegetable oil price index fell 3.9% month-on-month in September, and international quotations for palm oil, sunflower oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil fell across the board, partly due to seasonal production growth and sufficient global export supplies.
During the National Day holiday, the number of homestay bookings in popular cities in China increased 1.5 times compared with the same period in 2019
Data from the Tujia B&B booking platform shows that as of the 6th, the number of B&B bookings in popular domestic cities during this year’s National Day holiday increased 1.5 times compared to the same period in 2019. Long-term travel to experience the ethnic customs, going to Hangzhou to watch the Asian Games, and going to music festivals have become new trends in homestay tourism during this year’s National Day holiday. On the Tujia platform, the top ten most popular destinations for homestay bookings during the National Day holiday are Chengdu, Chongqing, Beijing, Qingdao, Xi'an, Weihai, Changsha, Yanbian, Hangzhou and Dali.
Judging from the increase in bookings, northwest cities and niche cities have the fastest growth. The exotic house decoration has made Kashgar’s B&B bookings increase 45 times compared with the same period in 2019, ranking first. Bookings for Yanbian B&B in Northeast China, which has Korean characteristics, also increased 10 times compared with the same period in 2019, ranking eighth among popular B&B destinations. In addition, the booking volume of niche destinations such as Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Zibo, Shannan, Aksu, Hechi, Yunfu, Danzhou, Baicheng, and Ulanqab all increased by more than 10 times over the same period in 2019. This year’s National Day coincides with the Hangzhou Asian Games, and going to Hangzhou to watch the games has become a popular holiday choice for many sports fans. In addition to Hangzhou, the co-host cities of this Asian Games, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Huzhou, Shaoxing and Jinhua, have also attracted sports fans from all over the country.
Recently, reporters conducted on-site research on the second-hand and new house markets in Beijing and found that as of October 6, the number of second-hand house listings in Beijing reached a new high, exceeding 166,000 units. The policy of recognizing a house but not a loan has been implemented for more than a month, and the number of new listings exceeded 16,000. Some second-hand housing prices have dropped significantly, but overall they remain stable.
The 2023 National Day box office is rock solid with 2.723 billion, becoming the National Day box office champion
According to real-time data from Beacon Professional Edition, as of 21:00 on October 6, the total box office of the National Day period in 2023 reached 2.723 billion, with a total number of visitors exceeding 64.833 million and a total of 3.532 million screenings. The box office of the National Day period increased by more than 70% compared with last year. "Like a Rock" became this year's National Day box office champion, with "Ex 4: Young Marriage" and "Volunteers: Attack" ranking second and third respectively.
It is worth mentioning that this year's National Day holiday saw the market's box office decline for two consecutive days, and the box office trend was relatively strong, mainly due to the overall good reputation of this year's new National Day movies. According to the Beacon database, the ratio of male and female viewers in this year's National Day show is more balanced than this year's broader market, with female viewers accounting for 54%, slightly higher than the male viewers' 46%. Regionally, the box office share of third- and fourth-tier cities during this year's National Day holiday exceeded 42%, which is also the highest in history. The market downward trend is still obvious.
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