These places have the most "congested" traffic and the most difficult to buy tickets. Return trip during Spring Festival travel

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the country has seen a wave of return trips during the Spring Festival in recent days.

As the second half of the "largest human migration in history", comments about not being able to buy train tickets and complaining about the high price of air tickets have been frequently searched.

Data shows that the daily turnover of people on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year reached a peak of 315 million people, and the turnover of people on the seventh and eighth days of the Lunar New Year also approached 310 million people, with year-on-year increases of 34% and 52.4% respectively in 2023. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 reached 34.1% and 47.5% respectively.

Various major transportation modes such as road self-driving, railway, and civil aviation have experienced significant growth in passenger flow, and the number of trips has exceeded the 2019 Spring Festival travel period.

So, where is the most congested place on the return trip and where is the hardest place to buy tickets? We use data to interpret several major blocking points.

The eight-day Spring Festival holiday gives people plenty of time to travel and play.

Ctrip data shows that domestic scenic spot ticket orders increased by more than 60% year-on-year, and inter-provincial travel orders accounted for 57%, doubling year-on-year.

However, compared with the departure selection time period, the return window is tighter. The demand for short-term travel in popular tourist cities has exploded, and congestion and ticket grabbing occur frequently.

Hainan and Harbin are typical representatives of congestion points in popular tourist cities. These two areas are the most popular destinations for ice and snow tours and island tours during the Spring Festival.

The price of return air tickets from Hainan continues to rise, with only about five-digit business class air tickets remaining on some routes.

Data shows that on February 17, the passenger occupancy rate of 26 routes including Sanya to Xiamen, Sanya to Jining, and Haikou to Heze was almost full.

Passengers traveling by car in Hainan also encountered the problem of "hard to get" return ferry tickets. In particular, many new energy car owners reported that they could not get tickets to leave the island, and some had no choice but to take all their annual leave and delay their return.

On February 16, the demand for vehicles and passengers leaving the island in the Qiongzhou Strait remained at a high level, the port was saturated, and transportation was expected to take about 9 hours.

Similar to Hainan, on February 17, all flights from Harbin to Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an and other places were sold out or only full-price tickets or business class tickets were left, and high-speed rail tickets were also hard to come by. As of February 23, all first- and second-class seats on the Harbin to Shanghai high-speed train and high-speed trains have been sold out. On February 22, only business seats are available for purchase at a price of 3,401 yuan.

The huge increase in tourists is the common reason why it is difficult to return to the two places.

Hainan’s passenger flow during the Spring Festival will increase significantly in 2024, with the overall year-on-year growth exceeding 30%.

Relevant data shows that on February 13, 4A and above tourist attractions in Hainan province received 553,900 tourists, an increase of 43.48% year-on-year in 2023 and an increase of 17.67% year-on-year in 2019.

From February 10th to 14th, Harbin received a total of 6.298 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%.

In addition to the large number of people, the increase in self-driving travel and new energy vehicles is another reason for the prominent contradiction between supply and demand in Hainan's return trip.

For safety reasons, the "Qiongzhou Strait Ro-Ro Transportation Operation Guidelines for New Energy Vehicles" states that the number of new energy vehicles carried on each voyage shall not exceed 10% of the ship's vehicle quota, and the total number shall not exceed 18 vehicles, resulting in " It’s easy to get in and hard to get out.”

Data shows that during the Spring Festival, the number of road transport vehicles in Hainan significantly exceeded last year. On February 17, the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, the total number of cars scheduled to leave the island on that day was about 20,000, an increase of nearly 40% year-on-year.

Congestion Point 2: Population flows out of the surrounding areas of big cities before the holidays

On February 17, the number of railway passengers reached 16.067 million, reaching the peak during the Spring Festival travel period. Among them, arrivals in popular central cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Chengdu have seen the most significant growth.

These cities, which experienced a large population outflow before the holiday, welcomed back more tourists during the return period.

From the perspective of routes, the routes from Beijing to Shanghai, Nanning to Guangzhou, Wuhan to Shanghai, Wuhan to Shenzhen, Taiyuan to Beijing, and Wuhan to Guangzhou are all popular flights, with the most obvious increase in cross-regional personnel flow.

In terms of civil aviation, the number of passengers on domestic routes will exceed 2 million on February 17, which has exceeded the peak period a year ago. About a quarter of the routes have a passenger load factor of more than 80%. Popular destinations include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Waiting for first-tier cities.

Judging from the popular destinations for Baidu migration, big cities with a large population outflow before the holidays are also becoming the most popular destinations for return trips.

According to the latest data monitoring from the Ministry of Transport, highway traffic volume during the Spring Festival holiday has been increasing day by day since New Year's Eve. The traffic volume on the highway on the sixth day of the first lunar month has more than doubled that of New Year's Eve. In seven days, car traffic on the highway reached 378 million vehicles, an increase of 20% compared with the same period during the Spring Festival last year. Among them, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, Foshan, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Shanghai are both popular starting points and popular destinations for self-driving.

Amap prediction data shows that from a regional perspective, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have higher highway congestion levels during the Spring Festival, followed by the Chengdu-Chongqing region, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has a lower proportion of congestion mileage. The proportion of highway congestion mileage in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions is about three times that of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

The return highway in the Yangtze River Delta region has the highest level of congestion.

Judging from the Spring Festival travel forecast data on highway sections, during the Spring Festival, many Yangtze River Delta cities such as Yangzhou in Jiangsu, Chuzhou in Anhui, Suzhou in Anhui, Taizhou in Jiangsu and Shanghai have highway sections that are most prone to congestion and slow traffic.

In terms of railways, the number of passengers sent in the Yangtze River Delta also hit a new high. As of February 17, the Yangtze River Delta Railway had carried more than 17 million passengers during the eight-day Spring Festival holiday, with an average of more than 2.15 million passengers per day, an increase of more than 60% compared with the same period in 2019.

On February 17, the passenger flow at Shanghai Railway Station reached its peak of 754,000, setting a new record for single-day passenger arrivals at Shanghai Station.

According to the Baidu Migration Index, around the Spring Festival, the size of Shanghai's immigrant population reached its peak on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, with a year-on-year increase of 11% in 2023 and a year-on-year increase of 22% in 2019.

Taking February 17 as an example, the popular places of origin for moving into Shanghai are Suzhou, Nantong, Yancheng, Fuyang and Jiaxing.

From the perspective of population origin, Shanghai’s radiation circle does not stop at the Yangtze River Delta. Among the top 20 cities of origin, cities in Jiangsu and Anhui account for 7 each, and cities in Zhejiang account for 3. In addition, non-Yangtze River Delta cities such as Shangqiu and Xinyang in Henan are also on the list.

In the past two days, a large number of tourists were stranded in Guazhou County, Jiuquan, Gansu Province due to heavy snowstorms. Local government offices, school dormitories, gymnasiums, etc. are open for everyone to rest. Enthusiastic local residents also brought the stranded people home to provide free help.

As the local weather improves, tourists stranded in Guazhou began to leave in an orderly manner after the 18th. However, the cold wave is moving from north to south, and drastic changes in temperature and temperature in many places across the country will affect the subsequent return journey during the Spring Festival.

So where is traffic most likely to be affected?

The latest forecast from the Central Meteorological Observatory shows that from February 20 to 26, cold waves and widespread rain, snow, low temperature and freezing weather will occur in central and eastern my country. Compared with the pre-holiday rain and snow freezing process, the overall intensity and persistence of the freezing rain this time is not as good as last time, but the scope and intensity of the rain and snow are basically the same. This time the temperature drop is greater, the low temperature lasts longer, and the freezing rain affects a wider range , rain, snow and freezing weather have a greater impact on land transportation.

According to the precipitation forecast map and freezing rain forecast map released by the Central Meteorological Observatory in the next few days, we found that the rain, snow and freezing weather in Henan, Tibet, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places are relatively serious.

Freezing rain is expected from February 20 to 25 in most of Henan, Hubei, Hunan, northern Jiangsu, western and northern Anhui.

In addition, heavy rains are expected in Hunan in the next two days. Rain and sleet are expected in Hubei. There will be rainfall, sleet and snowfall in many places in Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui in the next two days.

Judging from the amount of population movement, among these regions, Henan, Hunan, Anhui, Shandong and other provinces are the provinces with the largest emigration population after the holiday. Especially in Henan, among the top 20 cities in the country with the largest post-holiday emigration population, Henan cities such as Zhoukou, Shangqiu, Nanyang, Zhumadian and Zhengzhou account for 5 places. Traffic pressure in these areas is more likely to increase suddenly due to bad weather in the next few days.

Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, and Henan also have large migrant populations, ranking among the top five provinces in the country in terms of migrant population. Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Changsha, and Zhengzhou are all popular cities for post-holiday population inflows. within these provinces.

Meteorological experts also reminded that this round of cold wave and widespread rain, snow, low temperature and freezing weather have a high risk of disaster, which will have a greater impact on the return trip from the Spring Festival and agricultural production. Especially in Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou and other places where freezing rain lasts for a long time, traffic emergency management needs to be done well.